Ukraine Watch...

[invalid]

Russia is now threatening Kyiv with more attacks because the Russians blew there own ship up in the Black Sea. If Ukraine didn't blow it up why the necessity for retaliation? The Russian PR machine is as bad as its military performance it would seem. This is an obvious admission that the sinking of the Moskva was as a result of a successful Ukrainian strike.

Do you have a link for this?

[kenneal - lagger]

This is a very interesting article about the psyche of the average Russian from a Russian sociologist. It basically says that because the Russian people know that they can't influence any elections because they are rigged they just go along with what the government tells them because it enables them to live their lives in relative peace and that is all they can do, live their lives.

It will take months and months of things becoming really bad before the Russian public, en mass, will rise up against their government. So any move against Putin will have to come from the Kleptocracy around him who feel that he is dragging them down. Hopefully they will act before he decides to press the nuclear button on the basis that if he is going down he will take the whole world with him.

There should be a publicly stated narrative that if Putin and his idea of a new Russian Empire are deposed the west will work with whoever takes over to rebuild both the Ukrainian and Russian economies. That will give the Russian Kleptocracy a motive to keep things going.

[kenneal - lagger]

Russia is now threatening Kyiv with more attacks because the Russians blew there own ship up in the Black Sea. If Ukraine didn't blow it up why the necessity for retaliation? The Russian PR machine is as bad as its military performance it would seem. This is an obvious admission that the sinking of the Moskva was as a result of a successful Ukrainian strike.

Do you have a link for this?

I hope this one from the South China Morning Post is sufficiently neutral for you to believe.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/ ... aval-pride

All you have to do is put something like "Russia threatening Kyiv with reprisals for the sinking of the Moskva" into Google Search and you get half a dozen links.

It would seem from the article that the Russians think that it is OK for them to do anything to the Ukraine including flattening towns, preferably with the occupants still in them, murdering innocent civilians, raping and killing women, deliberately killing children and generally just being a bully but for the bullied to strike back is a heinous crime which should be punished by even more raping , killing and pillaging. Nasty people these Russians, well the government anyway!

[kenneal - lagger]

“The number and scale of missile strikes on targets in Kyiv will increase in response to any terrorist attacks or acts of sabotage on Russian territory committed by the Kyiv nationalist regime,” the Russian Defence Ministry said in a statement.

It seems that the Russians themselves are the only terrorists allowed around by the Russians at the moment. And since when was the Black Sea Russian territory? And I thought that the Russians said that the Moskva or its own crew blew itself up!! So why the retaliation on Kyiv? Seems the Russians have been telling porkies again, In valid.

[Mark]

He is sane and rational, have a read of his Phd. Energy and politics.
https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/ ... xt/212739/
He hates weakness, respects strength, and will try to regain as much of the former USSR as possible. He plays the long game.
Game over for everyone. That's why it won't happen. MAD.

On this, I really hope you're right Stumuz
I just can't see him allowing a retreat from Donbas/Crimea like in Kyiv, as that would be the end of him.
If he really gets backed into a tight corner, there's a chance he might go MAD......

[Vortex2]

>> he might go MAD......

Well, two of his 350kt warheads are now at the bottom of the ocean.

[Mark]

So any move against Putin will have to come from the Kleptocracy around him who feel that he is dragging them down. Hopefully they will act before he decides to press the nuclear button on the basis that if he is going down he will take the whole world with him.

There should be a publicly stated narrative that if Putin and his idea of a new Russian Empire are deposed the west will work with whoever takes over to rebuild both the Ukrainian and Russian economies. That will give the Russian Kleptocracy a motive to keep things going.

Totally agree Kenneal, but Putin is well aware of the threat from those around him and is busy purging them.....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... auses.html

Putin's mental state must be deteriorating as he becomes ever more isolated...
But is there anyone strong/brave enough in the Kleptocracy around him ??

[kenneal - lagger]

The article in part explains why Putin wants the whole Black Sea coast of Ukraine. The article does not actually say it, but others do, but the Moskva was built in the Mykolayiv shipyards near Odessa in Ukraine during Soviet times and Ukraine is the source of the gas turbine engines that power the ship. Russia cannot build any ships of size at the moment without extensive retooling of shipyards inside Russia and some of that machinery it has to buy from the west, or steal from Ukraine, because it can't produce it itself. Also much of the electronics for the ship would have to be sourced or sourced in part from the west so Russia cannot replace any ships sunk in this war.

[Vortex2]

>>Putin's mental state must be deteriorating as he becomes ever more isolated...

Is he becoming more isolated?
Does he care?
Maybe he is mentally tough and so ignores most stressors?

If he is as tough as Marshal Zhukov, then we have a problem.

[kenneal - lagger]

I was wondering why Ukraine might conduct a missile attack on Bryansk as stated in the South China News article so I did a Google maps search and it would seem that Bryansk is on the route that Russian forces would have to take to get from Belarus to the Donbas theatre of the war. If the Russians are still passing forces through a town that far north, it's half way between Kyiv and Moscow, they are taking their time in moving those troops. Also that route south requires a short section through Ukraine if they are to stay on major roads! But then that seems to be the level of logistical accomplishment of the Russian military.

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine is claiming that the captain of the Moskva was killed in the attack. It seems an unlikely piece of intelligence for Ukraine to obtain so soon after the attack, but presumably the immediate family of the captain will have been informed of his demise (if true) and someone might be upset enough to pass this info on to someone with Ukrainian sympathies. If it is false it would be easy enough for Russia to disprove.

If the leak was intentional, it might suggest that the higher levels of the military are very displeased.

At present the weather is in Ukraine's favour - the spring thaw has set in and the fields are extremely muddy. They may be too muddy for heavy tracked vehicles like tanks, leaving them stuck on the roads as they were in the first days north of Kyiv
If nothing else, it will give Ukraine more time to get its shiny new weapons operational.

All this is pure speculation of course.

[invalid]

I hope this one from the South China Morning Post is sufficiently neutral for you to believe.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/ ... aval-pride

All you have to do is put something like "Russia threatening Kyiv with reprisals for the sinking of the Moskva" into Google Search and you get half a dozen links.

It would seem from the article that the Russians think that it is OK for them to do anything to the Ukraine including flattening towns, preferably with the occupants still in them, murdering innocent civilians, raping and killing women, deliberately killing children and generally just being a bully but for the bullied to strike back is a heinous crime which should be punished by even more raping , killing and pillaging. Nasty people these Russians, well the government anyway!

That's a speculation. The headline is just throwing together similar events.

As the actual article makes clear, away from the misleading headline, the recent Russian warning about Kyiv was explicitly linked by them to the attacks on the border areas and in Russian territory.

[Vortex2]

From the Daily Mail : The Moskva pictured last week near the port of Sevastopol (image from Maxar)

From spacenews.com - Maxar and other commercial imagery companies have been working with U.S. intelligence agencies and allied governments since before Russia’s invasion to track troop movements, and are also providing imagery in support of humanitarian aid efforts.

From Maxar : Near real-time vessel detection. Cost-effective and scalable maritime domain surveillance
Product features
* Vessel detection within collection area, regardless of weather and AIS status
* Near real-time delivery, less than one hour after image collect
* Monitor territorial waters, EEZ and denied areas

In view of the close connection between Maxar and the US government, Russia could well blame the US for the loss of the Moskva and also for many of their other combat losses.

[kenneal - lagger]

That's a speculation. The headline is just throwing together similar events.

As the actual article makes clear, away from the misleading headline, the recent Russian warning about Kyiv was explicitly linked by them to the attacks on the border areas and in Russian territory.

Putin's trolls are getting desperate!!

It seems that the Russian government would rather put it out that their navy is so incompetent that it let their flagship catch fire and sink than admit that the country has declared war on their once "brother" Ukraine.

Ukrainian joke, "Brave Cruiser Moskva promoted to Submarine!"

There are reports that a Turkish oil tanker at the scene has picked up only about 50 Russian sailors and that Russian ships were unable to take off any crew because of the extreme weather.

[UndercoverElephant]

In view of the close connection between Maxar and the US government, Russia could well blame the US for the loss of the Moskva and also for many of their other combat losses.

The list of countries Russia can blame for its combat losses is a long one. It is not just the US who is providing Ukraine with equipment, intelligence and money. It's not even just NATO countries. It's basically the entire western world. Russia, meanwhile, is basically on its own. Even the Chinese are not exactly rushing to help them, and why should they? The weaker Russia gets, the stronger the Chinese position becomes.