British Navy held at gunpoint by Iranians.....eeekk...

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 28 Mar 2007, 09:00

Last night (sorry, no link , try reuters) oil prices briefly spiked to $68
(from $63) on rumours of an Iranian attack on US ship. They fell back
to $64.50, but it shows what would happen if an attack did happen,
whoever starts it.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 29 Mar 2007, 20:23

OK guys, if you were prime minister, what would be your reaction (given your aawareness of world affairs, PO etc) to the following scenarios:

1) Sailors/marines put on trial and given life imprisonment.

2) Sailors/marines put on trial and executed.

Also, if these marines/sailors were used as human shields on nuclear facilities, do you think it would deter the US from air strikes? (maybe this is a silly question? - but surely it would cause considerable friction between US and UK government!?)

BTW I sincerely hope they are released without harm, I just wondering what would be the options if any of the above happened?

EmptyBee · Post by **EmptyBee** » 29 Mar 2007, 21:30

Given that the hostages have been seized by the Iranians as a diplomatic bargaining chip I think any such eventuality would only arise as a consequence of our own unwillingness to negotiate with the Iranians over Iraq and their nuclear energy program.

If we continue to 'ratchet up the pressure', as Blair puts it, a culmination into military confrontation may be inevitable. The fact is that this crisis is a consequence of U.S. and British policy and the application of pressure in the face of a nation that doesn't appear to be in the mood to back down. It only need persist in being a crisis so long as we maintain our current collision course with the Iranian government.

This has all been entirely predictable:

Zbignew Brzezinski on February 1st wrote: A plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks; followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure; then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the U.S. blamed on Iran; culminating in a ?defensive? U.S. military action against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

We stand on the edge of a precipice, but let's not pretend that we reached our current position by accident. This 'crisis' is no more accidental than was the 'crisis' over Saddam's supposed WMD.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Mar 2007, 22:22

We seem to have forgotten the art of diplomacy (aka getting what you want by being nice to people).

Letter from Secretary of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office:

M. Beckett wrote:Dear president Armydinnerjacket (sp?)

Terribly sorry if some of our guys and gals strayed into your bit of water but they were using some old maps found in Saddam's palace. I guess you and he hadn't quite agreed just where the boundary is.

We'll have to get together over a big map and draw some new lines and then anchor some big shiny things in the sea so we don't get muddled up again.

When you send the sailers back don't forget to invoice us for the plane tickets and any incidental expenses. Cheque will be in the post by return.

Maybe we could work together over this anti smuggling lark that the UN want us to do. You do seem to have boats that are faster and better armed than ours so it would be useful. If you joined in it would stop the Americans accusing you of gun running. Poachers turned gamekeepers, don't y'know?

Talking of Americans, seems they knocked over quite a few of the date palms round Baghdad. Looks like we might be facing a date shortage next Christmas. Do you have any spare that we could buy off you?

Hugs xxx

Peggy.

RogerCO · Post by **RogerCO** » 29 Mar 2007, 23:31

Well written biffvernon. Would you like a job in the FO when I'm PM?

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 30 Mar 2007, 09:02

Are the US still holding the Iranians they kidnapped in January?

Peter.

mocara · Post by **mocara** » 30 Mar 2007, 16:50

The US is still holding the Iranians.

Even if the sailors were in Iranian waters (which I doubt), there is no bloody excuse for the parading and the publishing of these letters. I hope the government takes a much firmer stance. Go nab a few hundred Iranians and offer a swap

On the other hand with the Americans and British in the country to the east and the country to the west, I can see why the Iranians are pissed. Still no excuse for displaying the sailors in this manner.

Mocara.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 30 Mar 2007, 16:51

Yes I think so.

But they are terrorists, of course.

And don't forget that other place we haven't heard much about recently, in Cuba . . .

mocara · Post by **mocara** » 30 Mar 2007, 16:55

Ah yes, fair point. Enemy combatants.
So between that and being in Iraq and Afghanistan and of course spending 60 billion on new nukes, we aren't looking like being in a great position for righteous indignation. I was confusing my saintly indignation with that of the country's

Mocara.