The Quest for Resilience – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

[kenneal - lagger]

This is a very pertinent question which many of us here have addressed in the past. Liebreich has more chance of getting the question addressed than any of us here though. I just hope he does get to make these points to government. This piece was written before Russia marched into Ukraine and that invasion has made the question even more pertinent to a country which imports 50% of its food!

Most of us here, I would say, are expecting an imminent breakdown, imminent being in the next two to ten years and most of us would say that that breakdown has already commenced, hence high fuel bills, a breakdown in world supply chains and countries like China moving to lock in their essential supplies for the future. How China thinks it can function once the world's markets stop buying their stuff, I'm not sure but I suppose they will last a little longer if the Communist Party can keep food supplies going.

[BritDownUnder]

Maybe he is just following the latest trend as he admits to writing about the abundance of fossil fuels in 2015.

Resilience is something that ordinary people can only do at the individual level. Growing some food, insulating ones house, buying a bike or even an electric car. Governments in the UK and Australia have been poor at promoting resilience so far increasing reliance on overseas supply chains by allowing factories to close at home. The UK has put itself to be reliant on overseas food by increasing immigration or at least making it easier and importing fossil fuels and running down the national fossil fuel reserves at a time when oil and gas were relatively cheap. Democratically elected politicians seem to have no eye on the future whatsoever and the civil service is found wanting.

Becoming resilient is something that should have started when Jimmy Carter was President and Jim Callaghan was PM.

I agree with you on the timescale. In ten years things will be a lot different.

[Default0ptions]

Resilience does also need to be addressed at an infrastructural level. So many recent, and not so recent, trends are actively anti-resilient.

Converting landlines to voice over internet, barcode scanners in shops and card payments instead of even having enough of a cash float in a mechanical till in shops meaning you can’t pay in a power cut - increasingly likely next winter without a substitution for our current nat gas sources for power generation when the wind doesn’t blow.

Just in time deliveries.

We coped, just about, in the 70s with the 3 day week.

Could we now?

Looks like we may well have power cuts this coming winter.

[kenneal - lagger]

Not to mention a Russian engineered food shortage.

[adam2]

Resilience does also need to be addressed at an infrastructural level. So many recent, and not so recent, trends are actively anti-resilient.
Converting landlines to voice over internet, barcode scanners in shops and card payments instead of even having enough of a cash float in a mechanical till in shops meaning you can’t pay in a power cut - increasingly likely next winter without a substitution for our current nat gas sources for power generation when the wind doesn’t blow.
Just in time deliveries.
We coped, just about, in the 70s with the 3 day week.
Could we now?
Looks like we may well have power cuts this coming winter.

I agree. as a nation we are moving backwards in terms of resilience.
We did indeed cope fairly well with power cuts in the 1970s, but have become far more reliant on electricity since then.
Rota power cuts for three hours at a time would result in most shops closing, but almost all purchases could be postponed until the power is back on.
Longer term outages could be much more serious.

[Catweazle]

Is resilience actually compatible with our version of democracy ? Projects that need long-term commitment and expense are not very popular with voters who want tax-cuts today or with investors who want dividend payments now.

[kenneal - lagger]

Now is a good time for government to promote resilience and the spending necessary to achieve that resilience as most people are worried about the consequences of the Russian invasion and war in the Ukraine. Most people are well aware of the war but I wonder just how many realise the fragility of our existence. Most think that technology can save us from anything but few, especially the technologists, realise just how fragile and interwoven all the technology is and how easy it is for the whole system to fall apart literally overnight.

I have mentioned this to two of my local MPs in succession now and you can almost see their eyes roll in their heads as I am speaking. For most people, and those MPs, technology is king and can save us from all life's ills including global warming and resource depletion.

[Default0ptions]

Most people are well aware of the war but I wonder just how many realise the fragility of our existence. Most think that technology can save us from anything but few, especially the technologists, realise just how fragile and interwoven all the technology is and how easy it is for the whole system to fall apart literally overnight.

I agree. Covid has actually not helped with this realisation as, so far as most people are concerned, we seem to have come through that just fine. The chickens from that have barely been sighted on the horizon though. Let alone come home to roost. But no one I talk to seems to have any idea of the consequences that are already beginning to bite.

Similarly, or maybe even consequentially, mention of any potential repercussions from the war are met with a blind insouciance.

[kenneal - lagger]

I am well aware of the consequences of the war in Ukraine and those consequences could hasten the world economy's demise, a demise which is still being hastened by covid.

To not have taken the economic actions against Russia though would merely have delayed the necessity of such action as Putin, like Hitler before him, would have pushed his luck somewhere else in the future which would probably have resulted in outright war with NATO and an even worse effect on the world economy.

[Default0ptions]

Not to mention a Russian engineered food shortage.

Umm . . . didn’t we sanction them? Who could have possibly foreseen that cutting all that gas (and gas -> fertiliser) and grain from the world market might have some blowback on the world market?

[kenneal - lagger]

And Putin's psychopathic war against Ukraine wouldn't have caused a food shortage?

[Default0ptions]

And Putin's psychopathic war against Ukraine wouldn't have caused a food shortage?

Well I differ on whether it was psychopathic, but we sanctioned Russia before it even kicked off.

‘Invade Ukraine and we’ll shoot our legs off! We dare you!’

Probably not the right thread to get into the Ukraine issues though.

[Default0ptions]

Big win for my personal resilience today, found and secured a beautiful set of heavy, cast iron cookware that should last generations of cooking over a fire if properly looked after.

[kenneal - lagger]

And Putin's psychopathic war against Ukraine wouldn't have caused a food shortage?

Well I differ on whether it was psychopathic, but we sanctioned Russia before it even kicked off.

‘Invade Ukraine and we’ll shoot our legs off! We dare you!’

Probably not the right thread to get into the Ukraine issues though.

We sanctioned Russia when it invaded Ukraine the first time in 2014.

[Default0ptions]

>> We sanctioned Russia when it invaded Ukraine the first time in 2014.

Well gosh - that was effective wasn’t it