Gas supply crunch

[mr brightside]

Does the price of heating oil track the price of gas?

What alternatives are there? I've been thinking about installing an oil burning combi for a while now, but if the price of oil reflects the increases in gas prices what's the point...if you follow.

[adam2]

Does the price of heating oil track the price of gas?

What alternatives are there? I've been thinking about installing an oil burning combi for a while now, but if the price of oil reflects the increases in gas prices what's the point...if you follow.

No heating oil does not track the gas price.
Historically oil was significantly more expensive than natural gas and was only used if gas was not available.
At present oil is at about £1 a liter, or just under 10 pence a kwh.
The subsidised domestic gas price is about to increase to 7 pence a kwh. The open market gas price is significantly higher.

I would not consider a new oil burning boiler at present. Alternatives include wood, solar, or extreme insulation such that electric heating is viable.

Elsewhere on these forums I have suggested retaining an EXISTING oil fired Rayburn, that however is rather different from spending money on a NEW oil burning installation.

[anotherexlurker]

If my calculations re correct £6.50 per therm is over 22 pence per kwh or over 3 times the April price cap of 7.1 !!!!!!!!
please tell me that I am incorrect.

[adam2]

You are correct.
Divide the gas price in pence per therm by 30 to obtain an approximate price in pence per kwh.
Divide the gas price in pence per therm by 29.3 to obtain an accurate price in pence per kwh.

Divide the gas price in pence per therm by 10 to obtain an approximate price in pence per kwh of electricity produced from that gas. No great accuracy can be claimed in this conversion as it assumes average efficiency and only a guestimate as to non fuel costs. And the price is at the power station gate, transmission and distribution are extra.

[adam2]

UK natural gas stocks have fallen to the lowest for some months.
The market is obviously unconcerned by this news as prices have fallen. Natural gas remains at many times the historical norm, but is cheaper than the peaks attained in recent weeks.

Winter is now over, and any extreme prices or physical shortages are now less of a concern.

Hopefully by next winter, we will have filled the storage AND reduced reliance on gas by greater use of renewables.

[clv101]

UK simply doesn't have any seasonal scale storage to fill, which won't change by next winter.

[adam2]

UK simply doesn't have any seasonal scale storage to fill, which won't change by next winter.

Agreed, but even our paltry storage would be better filled than not.
This report https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-go ... se-1240522

States that UK natural gas reserves would last about two weeks. It is not clear if they mean two weeks TOTAL consumption, or two weeks IMPORTS.
Or even if they mean average consumption, or winter consumption.

[adam2]

So far as I can ascertain, UK natural gas stocks are 4% of a annual consumption.
That is a little over 14 days of average consumption.
About 40% of our gas is produced domestically with about 60% being imported.
If we had to replace all our imports with stored gas, then the storage would last about 23 days. And that is 23 days of average consumption, not winter consumption.

A simplified view is that storage represents about about two weeks of average TOTAL consumption, or alternatively about 2 weeks of winter imports. Ant that presumes that the storage was full initially.

Not very reassuring is it.

More wind and solar power needed, every GWH of renewably generated electricity is less gas burnt in power stations and more remaining for future use.

[kenneal - lagger]

Insulation could save us 80% of the 40% of gas that is used to heat our homes and make almost every home affordable to heat (even at current prices).

[BritDownUnder]

I was watching a rather doom-laden YouTube videocast by someone from the UK and they were claiming that the average electricity bill is now 2700 pounds per annum and the gas bill about 1700 pounds. So according this doom monger the average household energy bill in the UK is now 4400 pounds per annum. Is this really the case? Can someone advise?

I have solar, live in a sunny country and do not experience much of a winter and my electricity bills (no gas) were as follows...
2021 Q2 - AU$ 281
2021 Q3 - AU$ 534
2021 Q4 - AU$ 69
2022 Q3 - AU$ 99

Totalling AU$ 983 which is about 500 pounds per annum.

I buy my power and sell solar back to a government owned company called Snowy Hydro. Yes there are hydro electric power plants in Australia but not that many.

There are a lot of reasons why there are differences between the UK and Australia such as solar and a warm climate but an eightfold difference really needs to get you writing to your MPs over this.

[adam2]

No, the average domestic gas and electricity bills are nothing like as much as is claimed above.

The average of ALL bills might be that much if including large industrial users.

[PS_RalphW]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... iness.html

This isn't going to help. UK national gas grid sold to Australian asset stripping company known as the Vampire Kangeroo.

[adam2]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... iness.html

This isn't going to help. UK national gas grid sold to Australian asset stripping company known as the Vampire Kangeroo.

Others countries have laws or regulations that restrict or prohibit foreign takeovers of important infrastructure. The UK by contrast welcomes this inwards investment.

[Default0ptions]

“Kremlin Threatens To Halt Supplies As G7 Ministers Reject "Unacceptable" Demand To Pay For Gas In Rubles“

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here- ... -march-28

Sorry, the linked page is an ‘update’ page. The item I was referring to keeps moving. It was:

“"Russian lawmaker Abramov says G7's refusal to pay in Russian roubles for gas will definitely lead to a halt in supplies."”

[PS_RalphW]

Germany gives early warning of possible gas and oil supply shortages after it refuses to pay Russia in Roubles. Gas rationing has not been ruled out. Russia has toned down its warnings but is still talking of withdrawing some supplies if not paid in Roubles from 1st April.

So we may see Russia slowly turn down the gas flow to squeeze Germany and EU into backing off in military support for Ukraine.