Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

No one doubts it is the Ukrainian people who are suffering most, but Putin was demanding "denazification", by which he meant regime change and "demilitarization" by which he meant military occupation by Russian troops - in other words returning Ukraine back to a client puppet state, only 2 weeks ago. He has now dropped those demands when confronted with the reality of a heavily armed and deeply hostile military and population, and is hoping to get out with a face saving deal which would leave the situation on the ground little changed, with the defacto annexation of Crimea and the "independence" of the disputed regions. A commitment to never join NATO would be a piece of paper that would mean nothing as soon as Putin is out of power, or a new government in Ukraine decided to put it to a referendum.

Putin cannot win in Ukraine, he can only destroy Ukraine.

[BritDownUnder]

I think it will be hard to get the Russians out of areas that they are occupying but maybe enough pressure/casualties could do it.

I say give it a month and see who is sweating the most. Public acceptance of rapid change to non-fossil fuel alternatives was never going to happen without a push. A total lack of preparation over the last 30 years has led to today's situation.

[PS_RalphW]

At last the Pope has described the Ukrainian war a massacre and called for the fighting to stop.
I don't think it will change much

[dustiswhatweare]

“From a Russian military perspective, I can understand that they were worried when Nato was enlarged,” he said, adding nonetheless: “The problem with this argument is that no one in their wildest dreams can imagine the west attacking Russia.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... putins-war

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60717902

Russia is asking China for both military and economic assistance, according to reports in the Financial Times and New York Times newspapers.

Moscow wants Beijing to provide military supplies to use in Ukraine, the FT says.

Citing unnamed US officials, the FT reported that Russia had been requesting Chinese equipment since the start of the invasion. The officials declined to specify what kind of equipment Russia is seeking.

The report added that there were indications that China may be preparing to help.

Still looks like the start of WW3 to me.

[clv101]

Seems they are in need of dentistry equipment, it previously being imported from Germany!

Obviously such requests of China are wholly expected - the fact the west are making a big deal about it publicly now might be to draw some response from China, confirm or deny, which side you on etc.

[adam2]

Reports state that the UK is to supply Ukraine with over 500 generators. For hospitals, shelters and essential services. Total capacity not stated but presumably fairly small as stated to be "enough for 20,000 homes" which probably means about 20 Mw.

Not stated if the government POSSESED these generators as an emergency stockpile, or if they are simply purchasing on the open market. I suspect the latter.

[PS_RalphW]

The bombing near the Polish border was at a military base where volunteer overseas fighters were garrisoned and being trained. It was a daylight raid using cluster bombs to kill as many people as possible, the people and not the runway being the target.

[PS_RalphW]

The more rabid UK press is predicting Ukraine will win the war in the next 10 -14 days. I think this is based on a military assessment from the Ukrainian government, which I assume was provided for raising domestic morale. I don't think any independent assessment is so optimistic.

[adam2]

The more rabid UK press is predicting Ukraine will win the war in the next 10 -14 days. I think this is based on a military assessment from the Ukrainian government, which I assume was provided for raising domestic morale. I don't think any independent assessment is so optimistic.

I agree. Russian have reached a near stalemate in terms of taking ground, but removing them from areas that they have already taken will be a huge challenge.

Russia is increasingly resorting to random shelling of apartment blocks, which has lost them any friends that they once had.

I am concerned that Russia will use nuclear weapons "If we cant take Ukraine, let us destroy it as a warning" Poland next. Their nuclear weapons are probably as badly maintained as their other hardware, but they only need a few that work.

[adam2]

Putin announces a change in the law whereby foreign registered airliners are to be nationalised, requisitioned, or some would would say simply stolen. in order to evade sanctions.

Operation will be limited to russia and a handful of close allies. Any attempt to fly to the free world would result in the aircraft being seized.
Sounds very expensive for the owners of the aircraft or their insurers.

Long term operation will be limited by the existing inventory of spare parts as sanctions should stop any more imports. Or they might use fake chinese parts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60741161

[invalid]

Russia is increasingly resorting to random shelling of apartment blocks, which has lost them any friends that they once had.

Evidence? Have you not considered that these apartment blocks are being used militarily by the Ukrainians?

In the past couple of days we've seen a fair number of targeted, and effective, strikes against military targets - airports and centres for foreign fighters etc, alongside an any shelling of apartment blocks.

[PS_RalphW]

Russian domestic Airlines used to have some of the worst safety records in the aviation world.

[Mark]

Putin announces a change in the law whereby foreign registered airliners are to be nationalised, requisitioned, or some would would say simply stolen. in order to evade sanctions.

Operation will be limited to russia and a handful of close allies. Any attempt to fly to the free world would result in the aircraft being seized.
Sounds very expensive for the owners of the aircraft or their insurers.

Long term operation will be limited by the existing inventory of spare parts as sanctions should stop any more imports. Or they might use fake chinese parts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60741161

Russian domestic airliners have a poor safety record anyway - one will soon fall out of the sky once they stop maintaining them and/or start using fake parts...., can already picture Putin accusing the west of shooting it down...., maybe another potential 'false flag' if required ?

The downing of flight MH17 is one of the many unresolved issues on Russia's charge sheet...
They've got away with too much for too long and the chickens are starting to come home to roost..

[Mark]

Russia is increasingly resorting to random shelling of apartment blocks, which has lost them any friends that they once had.

Evidence? Have you not considered that these apartment blocks are being used militarily by the Ukrainians?

In the past couple of days we've seen a fair number of targeted, and effective, strikes against military targets - airports and centres for foreign fighters etc, alongside an any shelling of apartment blocks.

Balanced debate is good, but you're starting to sound like a Russian troll....
Remember, Ukraine has been invaded by the Russians - they're going to defend from where they can, but aren't likely to make their housing blocks (and associated bomb shelters) a target, are they ?
Also, the Russians have bombed a number of hospitals and attacked so called 'safe' evacuation routes in some cities.
It's exactly the same Russian play book from Grozny and Aleppo - terrorise the civilian population and cause a refugee crisis...