Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

I must admit the Ukrainian allegations against Russia of preparing false flag operations are coming thick and fast, and some stretch credulity, so I can't believe they are all true. Although it never hurts to have 2 or 3 plan B s when the Media has past experience of your propaganda style. If this war wasn't tragic, some of it would be farce.

Ukraine seems to be implying they are winning on the ground, which makes me think that their defences might be crumbling from the onslaught, where numbers compensates for incompetence.

I am beginning to get a bit of war stress from knowing that the first casualty of war is truth. Both sides always lie, and you have to remember who each lie is addressed to in order to judge what truths they are covering up.

There are a lot of defenders in Ukraine willing to fight to the death in their national defence. *IF* the Ukrainian defenders have chemical weapons available (which I think is possible) then it's also quite possible they will use them if they believe the alternative is defeat.

[Default0ptions]

Re Estonia, Latvia etc

I think Putin said that he’s unhappy about those too and wants some changes to the entire security structure.

I have no idea how we get there from here without a whole world of trouble.

He does still have a point though, and he seems to think that he has to address it.

I can see why.

The question is: do we choose to address Russia’s security concerns or do we choose to try to crush them.

I still fail to see how the attempt by service economies to sanction a net exporter of energy and commodities is going to work out well for us.

This forum is founded on concerns about oil and gas - and the western world seems to have just voluntarily cut itself off from one of the world’s top three exporters of oil and gas.

Let’s see how it works out.

[clv101]

I still fail to see how the attempt by service economies to sanction a net exporter of energy and commodities is going to work out well for us.

Didn't you get the memo? We've dematerialised our economies, you'll own nothing and by happy!

[Default0ptions]

I still fail to see how the attempt by service economies to sanction a net exporter of energy and commodities is going to work out well for us.

Didn't you get the memo? We've dematerialised our economies, you'll own nothing and by happy!

Ah!! Now I see

[kenneal - lagger]

And the queue of neutral European countries applying to join NATO has just got very much longer. No one neutral in Europe trusts Russia any more.

The vast majority of Ukrainian refugees are traveling hundreds of miles across the country to western countries rather than making the short journey to "safety" in Russia. The numbers are over 100 to 1.

Russia has an history of using chemical weapons or at least sanctioning their use in Syria and now they are importing their allies who were happy to use those weapons in their own country to another country.

If the Russians need support from another country it doesn't say much for the much vaunted Russian military. Apparently Russian generals have been syphoning off the billions of rubles that were allocated for military improvements just as the oligarchs have been bleeding Russian businesses.

[PS_RalphW]

The BBC is also reporting that Russia is actively recruiting mercenaries as it did in Syria, but this time the entry requirements are much lower. Criminal records or debt problems no problem. Russian mercinary brigades have been accused of war crimes many times.

Of course it may just be bbc propaganda

A US think tank (definately propaganda) is reporting that the latest Russian advances have paused again due to logistic limits, that Putin is purging many officers and losses are being replaced with undertrained conscripts.

I am getting worried that Putin will get desperate enough to escalate to nuclear. Chemical weapons seem to be a given. Putin's misadventure has clearly demonstrated that Russian army is a busted flush at least in conventional warfare. The western Arms industry is on cloud nine anticipating new orders, but I suspect military analyst's are anticipating Russia descending into chaos again when Putin is finally deposed or dies. We are also going to see uprisings in the North Africa Middle East regions due to food shortages.

This is going to be a big step down towards global collapse.

[BritDownUnder]

Confirmed that Putin has signed off on 16.000 Syrian 'volunteers' joining the war. Yet we will prosecute any UK soldiers who volunteer on the Ukrainian side.

What's the betting that when these Syrian 'volunteers' get captured by Ukrainians they will suddenly become asylum seekers?

I would have thought that since Assad needed Russian help in his war he would be unable to spare any troops for Russia. Anyways perhaps if they come then would it not be possible that the Syrian people rise up like they did last time knowing that Assad is a few men down. My enemy's enemy is my friend etc etc.

It would make sense for UK people not to volunteer for this war. Better to give the Ukrainians the tools to finish the job. Looks like they need some kind of counter artillery system to prevent their cities getting bombarded.

[UndercoverElephant]

Putin's misadventure has clearly demonstrated that Russian army is a busted flush at least in conventional warfare.

That's not neccesarily true in any general sense. The problem here isn't that it is conventional warfare, but that most of the soldiers don't believe in the cause they are being asked to risk their lives for. If it was Russia being attacked, then the story might be very different. The problem is this particular war, because the Russian people did not consider Ukraine to be a threat.

[Catweazle]

It must be very tempting to dig in for a week if you believe it's possible that: a) Putin will be deposed and you can go home to your nice safe job of marching in squares, or b) Putin will deploy WMD on the city in front of you and save you having to fight through the streets against a determined and well armed enemy.

Russian Army morale has to be low now, they're fighting Russian speakers, driving poorly maintained vehicles, and facing thousands of state-of-the-art smart weapons that open up their armour like a tin of beans. To add to their misery, volunteer soldiers are flooding in faster than they are killing the existing opposition.

This could end up as trench warfare.

[Stumuz2]

EU to phase out giving Putin a billion Euros a day to fund his war by.................................2027

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... LsmdkpAAAA

Basically, Germany wants the gas, France needs Germany's budget surplus redirected to it via target 2, and, sod Ukraine. They'll probably lose anyway say Deutsche Bank
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... gest-bank/

Sorry! Politico got the date wrong.

They are thinking about banning Russian oil and gas by 2027!

Whilst Germany has said it will not ban Russian oil and gas.

"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected that option earlier this week, saying that “at the moment, Europe’s supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way.” Germany is the EU's top Russian energy importer, last year sending more than €40 billion to Moscow"

Hmmm. Values and solidarity.

[Stumuz2]

The BBC is also reporting that Russia is actively recruiting mercenaries as it did in Syria, but this time the entry requirements are much lower. Criminal records or debt problems no problem. Russian mercinary brigades have been accused of war crimes many times.

These people are going to stick out like a sore thumb. Talk about a target rich environment. All the foreign students have left, Ukraine is basically a white society. I feel sorry for the Syrians, they'll be massacred in unpleasant ways.
It does obliquely give intelligence away. Putin is having trouble with his forces.

[mr brightside]

We could have avoided all this. After all, Russia does have a point about not wanting Ukraine with nato missiles on its doorstep.

They do, but the response from Putin was very, very rash. NATO look squeaky clean now.

[RenewableCandy]

We could have avoided all this. After all, Russia does have a point about not wanting Ukraine with nato missiles on its doorstep.

They do, but the response from Putin was very, very rash. NATO look squeaky clean now.

They didn't want another NATO country on their border - which was originally kind-of understandable - but if they ever take Ukraine they'll have 4 more! Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

And if they don't, after all this even an olde cynic about NATO like me would definitely understand Ukraine wanting to sign up!

[UndercoverElephant]

Not sure whether to rely on this source, but it is claiming Putin has sacked his top generals and placed the head of the security services under house arrest, because of failures in Ukraine:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rrest.html

[Default0ptions]

They didn't want another NATO country on their border - which was originally kind-of understandable - but if they ever take Ukraine they'll have 4 more! Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

But I don’t think Putin wants to ‘take’ Ukraine. He’s been pretty clear about what he wants.

Dmitry Peskov declared that Putin offered to end the war if Ukraine if they fulfilled 4 conditions. According to Peskov, the terms offered by Putin were

the end of any military action against Russia,
recognition of Crimea as Russian territory,
the acknowledgement of the sovereignty of the Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics, and
amending Ukraine's constitution to solidify their standing as a neutral state serving as a buffer between Russia and NATO member states in eastern Europe.

That seems to be it as far as Ukraine goes.

He also said he wants to restructure security arrangements in Europe (not an exact quote). Meaning ALL first strike capabilities OUT of Europe. We can shout ‘freedom’ and bomb ‘democracy’ as much as we like out there in the third world - but we do need to listen.

We got our arses handed to us on a plate in Afghanistan, Syria and Libya and Iraq are chaotic messes. Have we actually ‘won’ any of these wars?

This seems to be a last ditch stand, but it’s been 8 years since the Maidan / Nuland , Crimea and Donbas events and Putin does seem to have tried to raise these issues repeatedly.

Given the immediate blowback of our sanctions on our own economies - and Europe is still only ‘hoping to be independent of Russian oil and gas by 2027’ - it looks like he can sit back and watch our great leaders (*cough* Boris and Biden and EU) destroy our economies without Russia even having to turn off the energy and commodities tap . . .

I don’t expect our lords and masters will take this well. Or take it lying down. But it’s you and me and, currently, the Ukrainians who will suffer in ‘the great game’.

I have no idea where we go from here, but it looks like there’ll be some pretty major economic damage and we’ll just have to hope that things don’t escalate into nuke territory.