Anyone seen the oil price?!

Keela · Post by **Keela** » 29 Mar 2007, 14:02

PCness. It's everywhere

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Mar 2007, 14:04

Rather that apologising for the actions of our forebears, perhaps we should take a hard look at how people in 200 years time will judge us. What are we doing wrong, now.

For Britain the arms trade has parallels to the slave trade.

More generally, our profligate use of finite resources denies the people of 2207 the use of those materials.

Carbon dioxide emissions are likely to make the planet a much harder place to live on in 2207.

And, Pippa, I wonder whether, in 2207, the world's people will still be obsessed with nationalism and wanting to live in ethnically separated communities, or will they recognize that mindset as what has led to the worst of human atrocities. Perhaps they will regard our reluctance to accept the immigrant, with the same horror and shame that we now feel for the slave trade.

When climate change really bites we need to be ready for quite unprecedented migration. It is an accident of geography that it looks like some of the more inhabitable parts of the planets will be areas now lived in by those who are doing the most damage. Those who will suffer first and suffer most are the least guilty. The reparations due will make slave trade reparation look like the small change from the petty cash.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 29 Mar 2007, 14:45

Want a vision of the future?

Just take a look almost anywhere in the world.

Sunni against Shia.

Chechin against Russian. In fact Islam against Russia.

Iraq is what Western Europe will become. Major civil strife lies ahead.

Be honest now: Times are bad, food is short and two groups of refugees arrive at your barricaded village. One is of non-English speaking Moslems, the women in veils, and the other is from your neighbouring village.

Which group would you let in?

OK, OK you love the world and you would of course let BOTH groups in.

Let's rephrase my question: which group would your fellow villagers let in?

Exactly.

Peak Oil is only one facet of the hell that is coming.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 29 Mar 2007, 15:03

This thread on another forum:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ ... 44680&st=0

seems quite appropriate here. I think that it expresses Vortex's fears in quite dry economic language,

Peter.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 29 Mar 2007, 15:07

Vortex wrote:Let's rephrase my question: which group would your fellow villagers let in?

The probable answer is "none". Or maybe some surviving women and children after the two groups have fought eachother.

Pippa · Post by **Pippa** » 29 Mar 2007, 15:23

biffvernon wrote:And, Pippa, I wonder whether, in 2207, the world's people will still be obsessed with nationalism and wanting to live in ethnically separated communities, or will they recognize that mindset as what has led to the worst of human atrocities. Perhaps they will regard our reluctance to accept the immigrant, with the same horror and shame that we now feel for the slave trade.

The population in the Uk has not increased that much in the last 5 or so years, not according to the population statistics. I would conclude therefore that there are nearly as many (presumeably dis-satisfied) people leaving for other countries looking for a better life as there are coming in.

My brother and his family and my husbands two sisters and their families (co-incidentally) all now live in Australia. To my knowledge non of them are living in any neighbourly sort of way with either Aborigines or other ethnic groups. I believe that by far the largest group of imigrants now comes from the far east. My brother has got himself into a nice, white, mainly though not exclusively, christian community in the mountains outside Melbourne. One of my husbands sisters is living in a pretty exclusive white suburb in Brisbane.

I don't think that any of them are living where they do because they want to be labelled as nationalist or ethnically divided. They want to fit in so they have naturally migrated to a place (call it home) where they feel comfortable.

It may sound unfashionable and "terribly un-pc" but guess what, I would not choose to live in a mainly Asian/afrian/chinese/russian/or any other minority community here in the UK. That does not make me a racist or a nationalist - bad. It makes me human. Immigration on the scale we are seeing in the 21st century is not good for peace and stabillity no matter how much you want it to be because the root cause of it all is dis-satisfaction and the search for an easier/better life.

The problem of difference wouldn't be so bad if it were all reduced to a personal scale; like you and me now having this discussion. The more people you add to the equation the more complicated it gets not only because there are more people's ideas to listen to but, as the old saying goes, two's company and three's a crowd; in other words the more people there are the more conflict ensues.

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 29 Mar 2007, 19:40

Pippa wrote:the propaganda of shame that is proliferating against the bad old British.

I totally agree, it's a lot more to the point to look at slavery that exists today instead of this current exercise of political correctness gone mad. Do the Aussies give a toss?

On the whole I believe we mostly did a good job of running Commonwealth countries. For instance, some people are aghast at how the Smith government's sterilisation programme controlled population - the fruits of its abolition are now plain to see.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 30 Mar 2007, 03:00

This thread on another forum:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ ... 44680&st=0

seems quite appropriate here. I think that it expresses Vortex's fears in quite dry economic language,

Although they know about PO on the above thread, they are a bit naive about the future and population. They haven't cottoned onto the fact that less oil will mean far less food, therefore far less people. Also more people will be working at growing food rather than manufacturing. In Cuba the people making the money are the people who are growing and selling food.

When oil gets really short, I can't see anyone working in a bank or building society, if they still exist, chasing around the country asking where your last ten mortgage payments are. By the time the bailiff gets to you on his pony and trap, he'd probably take a good meal as payment!!

HSBC are losing money now in the US because of over lending. When negattive growth hits, I can't see them lasting long. And once one goes, the others will probably follow.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 30 Mar 2007, 08:50

Panic over team. Just see this post from the other forum ....

The world is awash with oil, it is the refinement of oil that is artificially restricted. This has been ADMITTED by the big oil corps.

OPEC keep saying they themselves are producing more than enough oil.

I happen to believe oil is available pretty much anywhere, you just need the technology, capacity and government licenses to get it out of the ground. the North Sea has been producing oil for decades and has never had more licensed companies getting in on the act (around 150 now i think), the only negative for them is the Chancellor and his 50% tax which would make the whole thing uneconomic should the oil price fall a bit

There are also billions of barrels on the south coast of England that can be drilled for but we're not doing so for some reason.

In fact there are 7.204 billion barrels of oil under my back garden. When I get a spare weekend I'll dig a hole and get it out.

Silas · Post by **Silas** » 30 Mar 2007, 10:25

Ok I will play a kind of devils advocate here.

Have we all been reading too much fiction? (This could also apply to most news papers) or watching too much mad max and other sci-fi films?
We would have to be hit by an asteroid or suffer a huge global weather or biological or nuclear event to leave our current society broken to the level of medieval or even Anglo Saxon communities huddled together in fear of rape and pillage.
Peak oil is not the end of oil but the decline of oil, there will still be another 100 years of oil and perhaps the decline will be slowed by recession together with the slow change to renewable energy coal and nuclear. Yes I realise that the latter are bad and at best short-term energy but we all understand why they will be used.
I hate to put a dampener on the doom but a slow bumpy decline is possible, we live in a very complicated and currently partially global civilisation, things are gradually going to change (localise) for sure but I believe that millions of people are aware of the problems we collectively face and we will ride it out and adapt.

Ok Immigration. Bottom line is that this is good for the economy of any country where there are certain skills and labour shortages.
But perhaps its possible also fair to say that the million and a half migrants that have arrived may perhaps be getting near to a level to have filled most of the UKs skills and labour shortages, so its not unreasonable (if the true reason for immigration is labour shortage) to now begin to cherry pick people with any of the last truly specialist skills in shortage in the UK.
It would be very un PC to suggest that huge numbers of people equals assured rental income for the BTL portfolios of property developers and helps to keep the property boom going, so clearly that is unthinkable nonsense as politicians are only interested in a stable economy and 2% to 3% growth.
None of them have a vested interest in property portfolios! (Woops)

As already mentioned food and agriculture are going to become very important, much of the economic immigration to the UK has been for agriculture construction and service sector labour shortage, most of the people have come from geographically big countries that have far more agricultural land than the UK. So when Europe needs to ramp up food and bio fuel production and there is a shortage of oil for the tractors and other agricultural equipment there will be a huge demand for a farming labour force and its not a huge leap to say that countries like Poland and Romania etc will patriotically call on there people to come home to farm, economic migration goes where it is needed.

Anyhow hopefully we are currently a long way off needing a thuderdome or a flint axe! but getting closer to needing a bicycle and possibly a new UK agricultural and industrial revolution

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 30 Mar 2007, 10:42

You are probably right Silas - assuming no war or terrorist incident.

However even a few percent decline in energy resources will push up prices and cause economic hardship.

I too don't see a return to the Stone Age ... but I can see a slide into a grubby, mean, authoritarian era.

Key example: How will business owners react when they realise that growth is no longer possible?
"Sorry mate, although your growing semiconductor factory used 1000 barrels of oil in 2004, 1100 barrels in 2005, 1200 barrels in 2006, you will be getting only 900 barrels in 2010, 850 barrels in 2011 and 800 barrels in 2012. We can supply a limited amount of brown coal after that if you want. Just imagine the trouble you would be in if you were NOT a Priority User! By the way, don't forget that we will NOT deliver any fuel unless you have an approved razor wire fence and also the required number of security guards to protect it. Rules are rules."

The psychological shock of Energy Descent when/if it is ever announced will be truly horrific to most people ...

mocara · Post by **mocara** » 30 Mar 2007, 16:46

Pippa wrote:
Vortex wrote:My fathers father came from a seriously poor family in Wales. He married my great grandma but they were so poor and work so hard to find that when my father was 7 he left the family and my father and his two sisters were taken into care. They were all split up and my father didn't see his youngest sister again until 2 years before he died (my brother found her though geneology search on the internet).
I personally don't recall having benefitted from the plunder of slavery in any meaningful and enriching way apart from any deeper understanding of the point of life (hey that's easy - there isn't one).
I presume you are not equating the life of being poor with the life of being OWNED by someone? As for the Queen, how ironic that people are celebrating the removal of laws which claimed one person was born with more or less rights than another. Royalty is a completely disgusting and absurd notion. Although you are entitled to think that these inbred people are better than you, should you chose. You want some land back? Get rid of the Royals, they own most of it. You don't like the foreigners? Get rid of the Royals, they are a bunch of Germans and Greeks. They even changed their name in an attempt to hide their German origin
The irony is killing me.

Mocara.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 30 Mar 2007, 16:51

Mocara wrote: You want some land back? Get rid of the Royals, they own most of it.
Mocara.

Don't forget the Church of England and the Universities. They also own vast tracts of land and property in the UK.

mocara · Post by **mocara** » 30 Mar 2007, 16:53

That's fine by me too

Throw in the Catholic church and we can all have a party.

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 30 Mar 2007, 17:51

mocara wrote:You want some land back? Get rid of the Royals, they own most of it.

I couldn't disagree with you more. The Royal family, in particular Charlie, have the nation's interest at heart. Why? Because they have to live with the consequences of their actions. If they really screw up, they could be overthrown. If a political party screws up, they go into opposition for about 12 years. The Royals can't "live low" like political parties do.

I'm certainly not jealous of the Royal Family's privileges; I'd hate to be born into that level of responsibility.