Ukraine Watch...

[Mark]

It's not just us the stingers will haunt. Russian-speaking Ukranians could be taking them into Russia and shooting down planes with them for years.

This is a nightmare for all involved.

Very true, but what other option is there ?
You have to assume/hope that the Western military have good links with the Ukrainian military, so are giving them to the right people.
Then you have to hope that the Ukrainian military only give them out to their own top professionals...
But we all know that things don't always go to plan in the fog of war....

[invalid]

Going back to the figure of the Russian losses I'm a little surprised that the 40 mile convoy has been parked for the best part of a week but hasn't yet been reduced to a string of burnt out vehicles. A couple of sorties with ground attack aircraft would or could do enormous damage.

The Russians have air defence capabilities of their own...

[Stumuz2]

Here's a list of collection points in Wales - quite a few in Ynys Mon:
https://www.thenational.wales/news/1996 ... ons-wales/

Thank you. Appreciated.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia reported on the edge of sovereign debt default. Analysts say that $120 Brent already factors in 3M bpd off the market due to Russia struggling to find buyers for their oil. However, they are making plenty of money on their NG sales at present.

[mr brightside]

Steve Rosenberg was back in Moscow last night, on the BBC 6pm. Lots of footage of people getting dragged off for holding up a sign, one of the 4 cops was looking to draw his baton on a woman with nothing more than a piece of cardboard and some colourful language. The propaganda machine of the Third Reich seems to be a historical event now repeating itself. It's sad to see, as a race of beings we just haven't learnt.

[adam2]

I share the concerns expressed by others.

Firstly that some of the relatively sophisticated missiles supplied to Ukraine will end up in the hands of terrorists. Even a single anti aircraft weapon used against a large passenger jet on the approach to say Heathrow would probably kill all on board and a substantial number on the ground.
A single anti tank weapon used against a crowded public building could kill large numbers.

Also as Putin looses more men and equipment I agree that he might resort to a tactical nuke or two out of revenge or desperation. I suspect that a lot of Russian nuclear weapons might be in poor condition and as unreliable as the rest of their hardware. That however helps little in view of the numbers of such weapons. If the first nuke does not work, then try another, they only need one or a handful that DO work.

I also perceive some risk of a nuclear weapon detonating but not when and where intended. For example fired from Russia and directed at Ukraine, but exploding on the ground in Russia. That of course could be spun a proof that Ukraine or the West started a nuclear exchange.

[PS_RalphW]

Power supply off at Chernobyl. Running on generators for now, with fuel for a few weeks in theory.
Not sure which systems are critical at that site, I guess some sort of cooling

[clv101]

There's a lot of regular spent fuel on site in cooling ponds. There will be significant fire and radiation release if power is not returned to the site before the generators fail or run out of fuel. Russia *really* doesn't want that to happen so I expect it'll be fine.

[PS_RalphW]

Apparently the spent fuel has decayed to the point that forced cooling is no longer critical.

[adam2]

Apparently the spent fuel has decayed to the point that forced cooling is no longer critical.

That is what I would expect. Some heat will still be produced, but probably so little that natural cooling is enough, or perhaps water cooling by natural convection in storage ponds.
Some water will evaporate, that takes a long time, and rain might be enough to replenish the water.

Electricity is probably only needed for surveillance and monitoring equipment, and for staff welfare facilities.

[adam2]

It doesn't look good. Western response is pathetic. Sanctions, but not serious ones "because we've got to hold something back." Putin isn't scared.

This is beginning to look like the start of WW3.

I have a sort of unofficial "doom index" which consists of observing the prices and availability of certain doom related goods.
Freeze dried ultra long life foods, called "doomfood" for a reason. Plentiful at present.
Bulk packs of alkaline D cells, procell/duracell industrial. Plentiful at present.
LPG cylinders, in short supply at present.
Paraffin in retail packs, reasonable availability at present.
Government surplus blankets, very short supply and very expensive at present.
Water chlorination tablets, no shortages observed at present.

I regularly observe the prices and availability of these items on fleabay and elsewhere, not with the intention of buying any but simply for interest.

UPDATE

Freeze dried foods still plentiful.
Bulk packs of 50 Duracell D cells, can still be found for £50 , but only from one supplier.
LPG cylinders still very short supply and even more expensive.
Paraffin, now hard to find locally. Expensive on line.
Surplus blankets, very limited supplies and remain expensive.
Water chlorination tablets, some shortages.

[adam2]

If anyone wants a little light relief, but still related, here is a video of Russian military fails, mainly involving tanks but also a few others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTNZViaKz3A

[PS_RalphW]

"western sources" are concerned that Russia may resort to chemical weapons, as in Syria. The term used was nonconventional, which includes biological.

Russia has already confirmed used of thermobaric bombs, and widely believed to be using unguided bombs on populated areas, including maternity hospitals

[Catweazle]

It's difficult to imagine that Putin will consider the supply of so many advanced weapons as anything other than an act of war.

Updating MPs on the Ukraine war in the Commons, he told MPs that the UK has delivered 3,615 anti-tank (NLAW) weapons and will soon be supplying a "small consignment" of Javelin anti-tank missiles.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ru ... d=msedgntp

I don't know the numbers from other NATO countries, but it must run to many thousands.

Against a constant barrage of such weapons Putin must surely either dig in, withdraw, or deploy weapons of mass destruction.

[Default0ptions]

Against a constant barrage of such weapons Putin must surely either dig in, withdraw, or deploy weapons of mass destruction.

Moscow is not aiming to overthrow the current leadership in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, amid the ongoing military campaign in the neighboring state.
“Its objectives don’t include occupation of Ukraine, destruction of its statehood, or the toppling of the current government.

It’s worth trying to understand just what Russia is trying to achieve. The events in Maidan in 2014 and Victoria Nuland’s leaked phone calls as ‘Yats’ was manoeuvred into position; the resulting annexation or secession of Crimea and the breakaway of the Donbass regions; the appearance of the Azov Battalion; the two Minsk agreements that were never adhered to; and Russia’s concerns about the encroachment of NATO towards its borders . . .

It’s naive to dismiss these circumstances. These are some of the reasons that Russia felt compelled to address.

We in the West have also barely begun to feel the results of attempting to sanction a net exporter of energy and consumables by our essentially service economies.