Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

Russia have now lost more tanks (148 confirmed, likely more) in 13 days than the Soviets did in 10 years in Afghanistan (147).

I think we witnessing the obsolescence of the tank. In the face of relatively cheap and simple anti-tank weapons and drones, let alone aircraft, the tank simply doesn't offer the protection it used to. It's too slow, easily tracked, too dependent on logistics for fuel and maintenance - a sitting duck against modern weaponry.

[Catweazle]

I doubt that Russia expected Ukraine to be using thousands of advanced anti-tank missiles at £100,000 a shot.

[clv101]

Wikipedia suggests NLAW costs:

Cost: approximately £20,000 (2008) or 67,700 USD

[Catweazle]

Worryingly, there are thousands of stinger missiles going out to Ukraine. I expect we will see more than a few sold on the black market in the next few years, and turning up in the hands of terrorists shortly afterwards.

[Catweazle]

Wikipedia suggests NLAW costs:

Cost: approximately £20,000 (2008) or 67,700 USD

Javelins are a lot more expensive.

"Javelin is very, very expensive for an infantry weapon," Boston said. "This isn’t so much of a problem for Ukraine because they got theirs for free, of course, but it does mean that they were never going to receive as many of them as they would have wanted. They are useful for a lot of things so you have to be selective in what targets you use them against".

US$175,203 (missile only, FY2021)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin

Stingers $100,000 each too.

St Javelin of Ukraine;

Ukraine war: St Javelin and the missile that has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/02/2 ... resistance

[adam2]

I suspect that the true value of the missiles might be a lot less than is suggested in earlier posts.

Armed forces fairly regularly re-equip themselves with new missiles either because the old ones are reaching the limit of safe, stable, and reliable shelf life, or because a newer and more effective weapon is available. In such cases the older weapons are worth little and would otherwise be fired for practice purposes or disposed of.

[PS_RalphW]

I thought on first reading you meant military value, not accounting value. As long as they work 80%
of the time I am sure Ukraine is happy to have every last one.

Poland offers its entire fleet of 27 MiG 29s and asks the US to replace them with aircraft of equivalent performance.

[BritDownUnder]

I would be interested in how many Russian helicopters have been lost. If the Ukrainians can attrite the Russians at the rate of 1000 dead per day they the war will last a few months before howls of protest reach the Kremlin.

There was a video of one that went down in flames rather spectacularly, probably cooking the crew in the process.

Perhaps a drone could be developed that drops small shaped charges on top of tanks and missile carriers where the armour is weakest. War breeds a lot of innovation.

I am surprised that the Russians don't seem to have got air superiority yet. Or maybe they were hoping to preserve the Ukrainian Air Force as part of the quisling state they hoped to set up?

[PS_RalphW]

Another military analysis suggests the Russians have begun to untangle their 40 mile traffic jam and also reached the eastern edge of the capital from a separate advance. An attempt to invade could begin in the next few days. Ukraine really needs those Mig29s quickly, and hopefully still has enough pilots to fly them.

I expect they will be based well to the west of the front line and far enough behind multiple layers of air defences to be safe from Russian air attack. Air power is the one area of Russian military forces not deployed at scale in the attack.

[anotherexlurker]

Russia have now lost more tanks (148 confirmed, likely more) in 13 days than the Soviets did in 10 years in Afghanistan (147).

I think we witnessing the obsolescence of the tank. In the face of relatively cheap and simple anti-tank weapons and drones, let alone aircraft, the tank simply doesn't offer the protection it used to. It's too slow, easily tracked, too dependent on logistics for fuel and maintenance - a sitting duck against modern weaponry.

I agree this conflict has confirmed that tanks are over rated

Post by Catweazle » Tue Mar 08, 2022 7:43 pm
Worryingly, there are thousands of stinger missiles going out to Ukraine. I expect we will see more than a few sold on the black market in the next few years, and turning up in the hands of terrorists shortly afterwards

I have the same concerns re both anti tank weapons and stingers , we need to supply both now , but they could come back to haunt us in later years.

There is also the concern that the more equipment and personal that Russia lose , does Putin get ever closer to using a tactical nuke (or other WMD) in revenge/desperation ????

[Vortex2]

>> have the same concerns re both anti tank weapons and stingers , we need to supply both now , but they could come back to haunt us in later years

100s HAVe been supplied.

Ukraine will be a failed state arms bazaar after all this,

[PS_RalphW]

Yesterday one besieged city was allowed to evacuate significant numbers of refugees. It just happens to be the city with 5000 trapped Indian students, one of only a handful of countries not to openly condemn the Russian invasion. India now says all its students have escaped.

I do not expect future humanitarian corridors to be successful.

[UndercoverElephant]

Air power is the one area of Russian military forces not deployed at scale in the attack.

That may be because the Russians don't want to lose half their air force.

[Lurkalot2]

Yesterday i caught the interview of the defence minister on Good Morning Britain and he was being asked about the issue of Ukrainian refugees coming to the UK. I'm no fan of this government but I almost felt sorry for him at one point. The questioning was more along the lines of "why don't we just let everyone in with any visas or checks" and "we should be taking far more" and not really accepting his answers.. Hopefully without sounding discompassionate or indifferent in any way but with the seemingly poor performance of the Russian military it seems unlikely they will overrun the Ukraine and it has made me wonder if there really is a need to bring huge numbers here. The numbers of those the government have said we are to take is 200,000 or roughly the population of a city the size of Norwich. There seemed almost a bit of band wagon jumping as the same tv show has also reported in a similar manner the housing crisis issue.
Going back to the figure of the Russian losses I'm a little surprised that the 40 mile convoy has been parked for the best part of a week but hasn't yet been reduced to a string of burnt out vehicles. A couple of sorties with ground attack aircraft would or could do enormous damage.

[Catweazle]

>> have the same concerns re both anti tank weapons and stingers , we need to supply both now , but they could come back to haunt us in later years

100s HAVe been supplied.

Ukraine will be a failed state arms bazaar after all this,

It's not just us the stingers will haunt. Russian-speaking Ukranians could be taking them into Russia and shooting down planes with them for years.

This is a nightmare for all involved.