Stumuz2 wrote: ↑28 Feb 2022, 16:45
You, me, anyone cannot live their lives in fear. It is what bullies always want you to feel.
Which is why this is leading to WW3. Putin isn't just a bully. He's insane. He's as personally invested in taking this all the way as Hitler was in WW2. He is fully capable of escalating this to nuclear war because at this point he has no off-ramp. He is committed, and so is west, precisely because if we do not stand up to this, it won't stop.
So capitulate then? Give in? Run away? Accept the threats?
No thank you
Stumuz2 wrote: ↑28 Feb 2022, 16:45
You, me, anyone cannot live their lives in fear. It is what bullies always want you to feel.
Which is why this is leading to WW3. Putin isn't just a bully. He's insane. He's as personally invested in taking this all the way as Hitler was in WW2. He is fully capable of escalating this to nuclear war because at this point he has no off-ramp. He is committed, and so is west, precisely because if we do not stand up to this, it won't stop.
So capitulate then? Give in? Run away? Accept the threats?
No thank you
There is no point in capitulating, because that won't end this. Even if Putin takes the whole of Ukraine, that won't end this, because the Ukrainians won't stop resisting and the west can't just ignore that and continue as if nothing had happened. The world order that has persisted since the end of the Cold War has ceased to exist. We are now in some new era. [EDIT: not the end of the cold war. Since the end of WW2. The security council of the UN can no longer carry out its most fundamental function.]
Again, that is why this is leading to WW3. There is no way to avoid it so long as Putin remains in power. Either somebody in Russia gets rid of him somehow, or the whole world is going to get sucked into this.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 01 Mar 2022, 22:54, edited 1 time in total.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Various reports on line appear to show Russian armoured vehicles, in working order and with fuel, abandoned.
Others have broken down or run out of fuel.
I think that Putin is mad enough to use a tactical nuke or two. Unless of course he can be deposed or killed before any such attack can be launched.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Echos of the Soviet era where army commanders dare not tell their superiors that their troops and equipment are not in 100% working order and fully battle trained and sober and the fuel reserves weren't syphoned off and sold on the black market months ago.
They still have large numbers on their side, and probably enough bombs to flatten Ukraine into submission eventually.
mr brightside wrote: ↑01 Mar 2022, 16:51
Personally, i'm keen to stay away from right and wrong on this basis; i just think Putin has made a sizeable miscalculation driven in part by paranoia.
Therein lies the problem. The more events go against him on the battlefield and the more the Russian economy dives and the more he thinks the world is ganging up on him, the more itchy his finger will get on the nuclear trigger....
As well as his paranoia, he's also incredibly vain/proud, so I can't ever see him backing down.
For me, the only relatively sane endgame from here lies in a coup by Russia's Generals and/or a popular uprising.
I was thinking/hoping that a group of influential and powerful Russian businessmen might put pressure on him to take a different line. They would have to be too powerful and influential to be given radioactive tea, though.
Either way it couldn't have come at a worse time, just when the global markets are trying to recover from covid.
Persistence of habitat, is the fundamental basis of persistence of a species.
PS_RalphW wrote: ↑02 Mar 2022, 06:44
They still have large numbers on their side, and probably enough bombs to flatten Ukraine into submission eventually.
But that's not a win for Russia. This was supposed to be a war of liberation, not the wholesale destruction of Ukraine and the slaughter of its mainly Russian-speaking population. It would be incredibly difficult for Russia to occupy Ukraine (or half of it) and they would remain cut off of from the rest of the world, economically and in many other ways. Putin has already lost. He needed this invasion to succeed quickly, and for both the population of Ukraine and the rest of the world to accept that outcome. None of those things can now happen.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
UndercoverElephant wrote: ↑01 Mar 2022, 21:52
Again, that is why this is leading to WW3. There is no way to avoid it so long as Putin remains in power. Either somebody in Russia gets rid of him somehow, or the whole world is going to get sucked into this.
Disagree. Listening to ex Generals, ex chief of the defence staff, say NATO will be letting Ukraine fall. Sad but true. For the Radio 4 peeps constantly clamouring for no-fly zones just elucidated their military naivety.
For a no fly zone, Russia will need to be invaded by air.
Not going to happen. And therefore no WW3. Sorry to disappoint.
PS_RalphW wrote: ↑02 Mar 2022, 06:44
They still have large numbers on their side, and probably enough bombs to flatten Ukraine into submission eventually.
But that's not a win for Russia. This was supposed to be a war of liberation, not the wholesale destruction of Ukraine and the slaughter of its mainly Russian-speaking population. It would be incredibly difficult for Russia to occupy Ukraine (or half of it) and they would remain cut off of from the rest of the world, economically and in many other ways. Putin has already lost. He needed this invasion to succeed quickly, and for both the population of Ukraine and the rest of the world to accept that outcome. None of those things can now happen.
How is Putin going to spin this to his own people ? I think it's clear he doesn't care what the West thinks, but to stay in power he needs to appear as a strong defender of Russians. Rats will leave a sinking ship, his generals will do the same, unless he can turn the invasion into another patriotic war.
I think he needs to ramp up the war to survive, but I'm not sure his army will comply. A coup is likely.
Lady at the end is an MIT Phd highly respected economist.
I don't think she saw the central bank of Russia being sanctioned. It is a one time trick, it will never happen again. Wait for China to bring their reserves back home. Which will have consequences.
When LTCM failed it was because the Russian economy failed. Russia will default today or by the end of the week. They are not letting their stock market open because they know it crashes 80%.
When it crashes, the derivative market implodes. The world derivative market worldwide is estimated ,no one knows for sure to be > 3-4 quadrillion.
A lot of private pension holders will be a lot poorer is this happens.
Please keep on the topic of the war in Ukraine.
This thread is not the place to argue about the integrity of the prime minister, nor about parties at Downing street.
Such remarks belong in the thread titled "conservative government watch"
The US has dropped Hellfires from drones on foreigners for years.
Pelosi is just one of many Western oligarchs, with her huge wealth which exceeds her salary.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky jailed Viktor Medvedchuk, the leader of the country's largest opposition party.
He also closed down 3 pro-Russian TV channels.
A true democracy.
The Russian invasion is ridiculous - but all the media focus on 'democracy' and 'oligarchs' is just propaganda.
>> The global implications; finance, commodities, globalisation etc are likely to be dramatic to say the least.
True - even if all the Russians turn around and go home immediately, a huge amount of damage has already been done.
As I noted earlier;
* Canada has shown how the state etc can crush individuls through fines, property confiscation, jailing, financial blocks etc.
* The Ukraine has shown how collections of states (plus the media and tech firms?) etc can crush countries through stand-off military actions, country level financial controls, targeting of high profile individuals etc.
Also, the cyber attacks on Russia have shown countries & individuals that their cyber security needs to be rock solid.
Rich individuals from now on will also seek different methods of protecting their wealth from vindictive states.
People are now aware that 'cancel culture' can be way more nasty than just some poor sportsman being sacked for having used a 'bad word' in an email sent when he/she was at primary school.
It's bad enough when it takes 9 years to get planning permission to build an eco-house due to evil planning laws executed by unelected bullies in local government. (My experience)
I dread a future where a grumpy or vindictive civil servant can destroy your whole life at the press of a button.
The demise of cash will be the final straw - You Will Obey.
