Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

I would rather keep RT on box than lose BBC reporting from Russia. I think Putin has thoroughly lost the propaganda war in the UK, so leaving RT on is not going to change many minds.

[Catweazle]

Boris said unlike autocracy Russia, the prime minister of the UK does not have the power to do so.

That's interesting, he doesn't normally think UK laws apply to him.

[automaticearth2]

I heard the speech from the Ukrainian representative to the UN yesterday. He basically said 'if Putin wants to kill himself, we can do that without nuclear weapons. He can simply copy what that other guy did in Berlin in 1945'.

Speaking to some Russians earlier today, and they are hearing from friends and relatives back home saying that the Russian economy is in freefall....

Just hearing that the Russian minister Sergei Lavrov saying that 'it is unacceptable that nuclear weapons are too close to Russia'. Funny, they've been there quite a while; why start moaning about them now?

[Stumuz2]

Just when you think the French have grown a pair. This.
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1 ... Trh8wpAAAA

[clv101]

Speaking to some Russians earlier today, and they are hearing from friends and relatives back home saying that the Russian economy is in freefall....

Yes. And the impact on the rest of the global economy could be incredible. This is much more significant than Covid for commodity trading, Russia exports a vast amount of energy, metals, chemicals etc. Cutting out Russian banks could also disrupt global finance. 'Globalisation', after Covid, may not recover from this shock.

[Mark]

But thank the Lord, that half packet of crisps, disputed icing on a cake, and proximity to tinsel is considered a scandal. When questioned about kicking Russia today off the air, Boris said unlike autocracy Russia, the prime minister of the UK does not have the power to do so.
In our democracy an independent institution, who can be hostile to the Government decides. Democracy is a wonderful thing. It is why the Ukrainians are fighting to the death for it.
Rejoice that the PM was facing legitimate criticism for cake and crisps.

BTW. Ireland has been told to stop broadcasting Russia today, by unelected foreign technocrats, who genuinely believe they know best for the Irish People.
The ban takes effect whether the Irish Prime minister, government or people, want it or not.

Democracy, where the politicians who have power to make decisions for you, can be directly removed from office if they get it wrong, is very precious.

1/. As you know full well, the PM was in trouble for lying, being deceitful, and thinking he was above the rule of law whilst ordinary people were dying. These are serious character flaws for any leader - democratically elected or not - so it's to be applauded if/when our system holds him to account. The more you trivialise it as a problem with crisps/cake, the more you look stupid...
2/. If the PM thought there was an advantage to ban RT, it would happen. As another poster has said, this is really about trying to preserve the BBC's access in Russia. It's nothing to do with Boris or the UK being champions of democracy.
3/. I don't agree with the EU banning RT. As with expelling diplomats, banning airlines and everything else, the next step for Russia will be to ban all EU media. For me, the best 'end game' would be for the Russians to topple Putin themselves - so the more Western media coverage they see, the better. In the West, we could easily ignore RT, or watch it to see Russia's narrative if that floats your boat. Can't see that it influences many people.
4/. Many (most ?) people get their news these days via social media - I'm amazed that the Russians haven't taken down the internet/mobile communications yet. All the images, videos, tiktok etc. are showing the Russians for what they are. Putin is fighting this war as if it's 1980....

[PS_RalphW]

The Johnson government is shipping medical supplies to Ukraine - PPE that they happen to have knocking around cluttering up warehouses.

[mr brightside]

The whole thing has had me quite confused, and it's been hard work sifting the facts from media narratives. I've never been able to understand why Putin thinks the NATO threat is credible and imminent, or what he has to gain from invading Ukraine, so i had a quick chat with one of the Hungarian fabricators today. Apparently, when i say NATO Putin thinks USA; and when i say Ukraine Putin thinks 'next USA cruise missile installation'. I'm assured that Putin thinks the threat from his old enemy is credible, and it's not a smokescreen for land-grabbing. Personally, i'm keen to stay away from right and wrong on this basis; i just think Putin has made a sizeable miscalculation driven in part by paranoia.

[PS_RalphW]

A US defence assessment has Russia holding back on its main attacks due to logistics log jams, running short of fuel and even food for some troops, and of course enemy action. It also thinks Russia has a serious morale problem in its conscript troops, with some surrendering after putting up little or any fight. Many did not even know they were in a war. Of course this is just US propaganda without much evidence to back it up, but it seems clear that the only way Russia is going to take the big cities is by bombing them into rubble and killing tens of thousands with thermobaric bombs. They have at last started bombing TV transmitters in Kiev .

[Mark]

Personally, i'm keen to stay away from right and wrong on this basis; i just think Putin has made a sizeable miscalculation driven in part by paranoia.

Therein lies the problem. The more events go against him on the battlefield and the more the Russian economy dives and the more he thinks the world is ganging up on him, the more itchy his finger will get on the nuclear trigger....

As well as his paranoia, he's also incredibly vain/proud, so I can't ever see him backing down.
For me, the only relatively sane endgame from here lies in a coup by Russia's Generals and/or a popular uprising.

[PS_RalphW]

An ex senior uk defence guy on Radio 4 suggested that Putin would dig in to win at any cost, even maybe tactical nukes, so the most humane thing to do was withdraw support from Ukraine, so that they will be defeated quickly and with fewer total Casualties.

[clv101]

The oil market is a mess, we're going need denand-side policies!

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... -oil-shock

[UndercoverElephant]

Putin's next move might be to detonate a single tactical nuke somewhere as a warning shot.

And then what? The west just backs down and lets Putin walk into Ukraine? How does that end this? It doesn't end it.

[UndercoverElephant]

It's fast looking like NATO at war with Russia - except we're only playing in Ukraine and only Ukrainians are allowed to hold the guns. How much further can we go down this route before Putin convinces himself a UK airfield involved in transporting weapons to Ukraine is a legitimate target for cruse missiles? Or a UK factory?

I agree. Unless Putin is taken out of the equation by his own side, I see no way to stop this escalating. Putin won't back down, Ukraine can't back down, and the west can't untake sides. This looks like WW3 to me.

[UndercoverElephant]

You, me, anyone cannot live their lives in fear. It is what bullies always want you to feel.

Which is why this is leading to WW3. Putin isn't just a bully. He's insane. He's as personally invested in taking this all the way as Hitler was in WW2. He is fully capable of escalating this to nuclear war because at this point he has no off-ramp. He is committed, and so is west, precisely because if we do not stand up to this, it won't stop.