Ukraine Watch...

[Stumuz2]

Could be Russia just wants to achieve its stated objectives and get out?

What is the stated objective?
So far the stated objective has been to invade a neighbouring country, get rid of Nazis and drug users, using the largest military force in Europe.

Would you agree?

[Stumuz2]

To a degree we are being conned by the media.

There is back story here, which we are not hearing.

Do you mean the final fall of the soviet union? And the building of the new Russia which wasn't handled well.

[Stumuz2]

This is beginning to look like the start of WW3.

No it isn't. Long way to we get there.

Yeah. About 4 days.

Still a long way off. WW3 involves Europe, China, USA all lobbing ICBM's at each other. It's a treaty breach to even connect them together. Once Russia assembles IBCM they are in immediate breach which the US/UK can and will respond.
As is said a few days ago. Being a tyrant and ruling by fear is a lonely place. He will be looking at everyone close to him this morning wondering who is going to deceive, frustrate, or even kill him at the behest of his kleptomaniac's friends.

Tyrants don't do secession planning.

[clv101]

ICBMs are how WW3 ends, not how it starts!

[adam2]

Russian central bank has doubled interest rates to 20% in an attempt to stave off a currency collapse.
Despite this, the rouble remains at historic lows in comparison to hard currencies.

[Vortex2]

This is going to end in tears.

Russia wil never forget the way the West ganged up on them.

Ukraine will become the biggest arms bazaar in the world.
They will have 1000s of anti-tank and ground-to-air missiles lying around.

Any country which wants to go their own way, independent of the Big Powers ... and corporations ... will be told :
"Remember what we did to mighty Russia .. without even firing a shot. Do you want to be next?"

Putin's next move might be to detonate a single tactical nuke somewhere as a warning shot.

[Stumuz2]

ICBMs are how WW3 ends, not how it starts!

I don't think we will be lobbing battlefield nukes at each other. What's the point?
He will resort to shock and awe on Ukrainian cities, then a response will be inflicted. Then we are talking WW3. Remember, by necessary inplication, total war doctrine involves a strike on China to stop it gaining advantage. Russia is trying to cultivate China as a new best friend. Would you want a best friend that could ultimately be mortally costly?

[Stumuz2]

Russian central bank has doubled interest rates to 20% in an attempt to stave off a currency collapse.
Despite this, the rouble remains at historic lows in comparison to hard currencies.

A bit tangental, but analysts saying today could be a Lehman Bros' day for banks,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pozsa ... -liquidity
If so, expect massive money printing to start again, which will have 'unknown unknowns' for the financial system.

[Vortex2]

Come back COVID - all is forgiven.

[Stumuz2]

Come back COVID - all is forgiven.

[BritDownUnder]

Overall I am quite happy how the Ukrainians are doing except for the South around Kherson where they look dangerously close to losing their entire coastline to Russia. I am surprised at the level of resistance in the East even in fairly 'Russified' Karkhov (or Kharkiv if you prefer).

If the defenders can attrite the Russians invaders at the rate of say, 1000 killed per day, then after a month things will be getting a bit worrying for Mr Putin.

The good availability of guns in Ukraine seems to have served them well. Contrast that with Australian politicians slapping themselves on the back after the Port Arthur massacre about how they successfully 'disarmed' the Australian population. I doubt Australia would fare as well after a Chinese invasion these days.

I see no need for the UK to get involved other than to supply small amounts of ammunition. There is no point in risking British lives to keep Ukraine free only for them afterwards to join the EU an happily buy German cars, Italian shoes and French luxury goods and nothing from the UK.
What it does illustrate that the UK needs are wide and diverse array of nuclear weapons from battlefield to strategic to counter any Russian threat and deployed in a variety of ways from submarines to surface ships to aircraft and ballistic (even hypersonic) missiles. About a thousand up from the current 240 to 300 warheads seems reasonable.

[PS_RalphW]

The EU is going to provide satellite intelligence to Ukraine. I am surprised they weren't getting it already. This will not go down well with Putin who will see it as more Nato interference.

[clv101]

It's fast looking like NATO at war with Russia - except we're only playing in Ukraine and only Ukrainians are allowed to hold the guns. How much further can we go down this route before Putin convinces himself a UK airfield involved in transporting weapons to Ukraine is a legitimate target for cruse missiles? Or a UK factory?

[adam2]

Here in UK the police regularly confiscate illegally held guns from criminals, these weapons are generally later destroyed.
Perhaps confiscated guns should NOT be destroyed but should instead be taken to the armoury of an existing military base.
Each weapon should be examined by an army expert, and if judged to be in safe working order and accepting readily available ammunition, these weapons should be stored for issue to the civilian population of any allies in need of weapons.

Only unsafe or obsolete weapons should be destroyed.

The cost would be minimal. How much does it cost for an existing army technical officer to examine a dozen guns a week ? How much does it cost to spray each gun with anti rust oil and store them in crates at the back of an existing and already secure armoury.

Shortage of guns was a problem in both world wars, a few thousand assorted small arms could be very useful in the next war, for our allies or even for ourselves.

This news report gives an idea of the number of weapons that could be obtained at ALMOST NO COST
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/800- ... 59296.html

[clv101]

"The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU's head diplomat said."

So... is that satellite centre in Madrid now a legitimate target for submarine launched cruse or ballistic missiles?