Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

Most of the media I have seen is very anti-Putin, pro-Ukraine.

However I just saw an Indian channel which seemes to have a more balanced view.

They showed the huge columns of tanks etc approaching Kiev.

If true, then the resistance will fail at some point.

As I said before, the rebels in Grozny defeated the intial Russian columns ... but it didn't end well.

[Vortex2]

Germany is now supplying 1000 anti-tank missiles, and 500 SAMs to Ukraine.

France have made a similar promise.

We have alreadtysupplied huge planeloads of anti-tank weapons.

At some point Putin will decide that NATO isn't being very neutral ... his reaction might not be pleasant.

[clv101]

At some point Putin will decide that NATO isn't being very neutral ... his reaction might not be pleasant.

Indeed, it's not looking good for Russia. How do they either succeed or back down from here? The battlefield is a mess - but also the deepening economic impacts. And yeah, the more NATO weapons start killing Russians fighters, the more likely some Russian retaliation.

[Catweazle]

When does Putin start to believe he's fighting NATO not Ukraine ? Is that the excuse he needs to carry on past Ukraine ? I don't think he can seriously believe he can fight NATO, but if he withdraws he loses his position in Russia. Will his generals depose him ? Or will there be civil war in Russia ?

[clv101]

The *best* outcome is a military coup in Russia over the weekend. Generals horrified by the Ukrainian debacle rise up and replace Putin. Withdraw from Ukraine, apologise for Putin, free gas to Ukraine for the next decade and pivot to modernisation with the ultimate aim of being the physical and political bridge between Europe and Asia/China for 21st century. Write off Putin's era as some ghastly Soviet hangover and move on as many others did after USSR collapse, like Baltic States moved on.

Not likely!

[PS_RalphW]

Some Russian banks to be barred from Swift. Presumably not the ones selling NG to Germany.

[adam2]

Increasing numbers of European nations are sending weapons to Ukraine.
The main needs seem to be anti tank rockets, surface to air missiles, and small arms ammunition.

Supporters in Poland have not only been sending firearms but also civilian blasting explosive as used in mines and quarries, together with detonators, delay fuses, and electric exploders.

This youtube video gives basic training and instruction in the use of such materials.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8j9h4XYVTs

[Stumuz2]

Some Russian banks to be barred from Swift. Presumably not the ones selling NG to Germany.

Exactly!
Swift has been implemented 50%. Although the sanction on the Russian central bank is significant.

[Stumuz2]

I find the explosion at the oil storage site very telling. There is evidence that Russia may have gone full Napoleon, advanced too far too fast. If they are desperate for fuel, then it makes sense for the Ukrainians to blow the oil depot themselves. No fuel tanks etc are a target rich environment for the newly delivered anti tank missiles.

[Stumuz2]

Seems like the Germans, supported by the Irish, are bit embarrassed of their practical support for Putin, through the continued operation of Swift. So, time for some press releases saying "expulsion from swift" "tough" etc.

Always watch what the Germans do rather than say.

According to Bloomberg,
"the German government has said that the ban only affects the Russian banks that were *already sanctioned* a few days ago, in other words, it is toothless as it merely hits banks that have already been sanctioned by other measures. It also means that the SWIFT measure is being taken merely to placate populist anger at no SWIFT measures"

"Further, it should not surprise anyone that Russian gas has been flowing again overnight (admittedly for only a few hours) into Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, as it happened on Saturday"

In fact supplies of gas from Russia to Germany have increased since the invasion started.

EU, Solidarity and values with Ukraine. Mmm cosy feeling.

[adam2]

This reports refers, correctly in my, to the relatively inexperienced President of Ukraine "rising to the moment"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59667938

[Vortex2]

The West is being somewhat hypocritcial in all this.

We have been dropping JDAMS and other nasties on primitive peoples for decades ... whilst everyone cheers and claps.

Putin does the same .. and he is the devil.

[Vortex2]

Russia-Ukraine latest: Vladimir Putin puts nuclear deterrent forces on high alert over Nato's 'unfriendly' sanctions

Oh, what a surprise.

All this has been modelled in huge detail in the 1960s.

[Vortex2]

British tanks arrive in Estonia as Nato bolsters eastern flank amid Putin threat

Oh, jolly good.

Step-by-step we could reach a nasty shooting war ...

[adam2]

Russia-Ukraine latest: Vladimir Putin puts nuclear deterrent forces on high alert over Nato's 'unfriendly' sanctions
Oh, what a surprise.
All this has been modelled in huge detail in the 1960s.

This I find most concerning. Whilst it is PROBABLY just political posturing, even a small chance of Russia using nuclear weapons is very worrying.