Ukraine Watch...

[automaticearth2]

The big question is what happens if the Ukrainian government is still there in another 48hrs. Do they give up on Kyiv, and settle for just an 'independent' Donbas, or to they up the intensity?

I don't see how Putin can back out at this point. He is past the point of no return.

Agree UE. It's way past that point now. He is now in a war that most Russians do not want. He has to carry on regardless, even if that means Russians having to accept lower living standards. I have seen lots of info from some Russian friends that they see Putin causing the destruction of Russia in it's current form. That is really sad.

[automaticearth2]

Apparently Ukrainians are very happy with our SAMs and anti tank weapons. Every round has apparently worked really well ie it has taken out some Russian hardware. Not surprisingly, as our weapons are very advanced.
They want us to send more.

[PS_RalphW]

If it is true they are using thermobaric and cluster bombs, I think it will not be long before the Russian military depose Putin. I have not heard anything like this yet.

[automaticearth2]

If it is true they are using thermobaric and cluster bombs, I think it will not be long before the Russian military depose Putin. I have not heard anything like this yet.

Agree Ralph, this was reported on Al Jazeera. I see this a reputable news outlet, but probably not totally accurate . Not sure, I am not a journalist . What I do know is that I work with some Russian colleagues and they are disgusted with what is going on. They are more worried about the USA getting involved and escalating this disastrous conflict.

[Stumuz2]

Germany has had a quiet word with Ireland,

Micheal Martin, Ireland's Taoiseach, also defended the decision not to remove Russia from the network,
"People have different perspectives on the efficacy or value of Swift in itself, so I don't think we should singularly focus on Swift because the sanctions will hit hard at the industrial base, in terms of areas that will hurt the Russian economy," Mr Martin said. "Over time these sanctions will have an impact. It won't halt what is happening."

Seems like Ireland was more than willing to back Germanys refusal to kick Russia out of SWIFT.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/fin ... -1.4812135

I bet the Ukrainians fighting street to street are comforted by the EU's tweet of 'solidarity and values'

[PS_RalphW]

Cyprus has declared it is ready to remove Russia from Swift. A lot of Russian money is vectored through Cyprus.

[PS_RalphW]

We are two full days into the invasion and the lights are still on and most of the country still has internet. Clearly, Russia has not gone all out to destroy Ukraine, it wants to preserve as much of the infrastructure as possible. However, I have now seen reports of a thermobaric rocket launcher being seen close to the border. Used in built up areas such rockets would cause large civilian casualties.

If Putin thought he could crush opposition quickly and install a puppet regime then he has miscalculated. The Ukrainian army was clearly well prepared and dug in, and Russia is still holding back on deploying its mass conscript battalions, relying on its small professional forces to break through defences. I expect they have a lot of intelligence from US and other security sources.
Russian heavy lift helicopters appear to still be vulnerable to hand held SAM, and it is not clear that any of the airfields they have captured are in operable condition.

All the indications are that most Ukrainians still remember life under the Soviets and have no wish to return to that level of oppression. Stalin killed millions through starvation in the 30s and Putin clearly is not going to give a fair price for the wheat from their fields.

Looking forward I do not know how long the Ukrainian forces can hold out, and how much land the Russians can grab before their generals get cold feet and call a ceasefire. Ukraine is reporting 4000 Russian causalities, but of course that number is unknowable. They may have 150,000 troops in theatre, but that is not enough to fully control a country the size of Ukraine with an actively hostile population, and a steady stream of weapons from the western borders.

[adam2]

"stock markets rebound, natural gas prices fall, oil prices fall" due it is said to relief that the sanctions imposed on Russia are relatively modest and not making much difference.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60518578

[Stumuz2]

Just the Jerries and the Paddies holding out on swift.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ks-action/

[Stumuz2]

Looking forward I do not know how long the Ukrainian forces can hold out, and how much land the Russians can grab before their generals get cold feet and call a ceasefire.

They're getting help from fellow slavs,
https://twitter.com/GitanasNauseda/stat ... in-capital

Although it looks like Russia has banned twitter.

[Vortex2]

The Russians haven't really used much in the way of heavy weapons yet.

If they get stalled, then I would expect to see horrific artillery barrages and maybe bombing from high flying aircraft.

Take a look at the history of Grozny.

The locals gave the Russians a bloody nose ... but one third of the city's population died.

[Stumuz2]

But they will be in war crime, genocide territory. All filmed in glorious technicolour. How would their own citizens feel about it?

[PS_RalphW]

Germany is hinting it might give some ground on banning Russia from Swift. I guess they are under a lot of pressure from all countries except Ireland.

[adam2]

Germany have now stated that they sending anti tank weapons, a forward step.

[Mark]

Delisting or suspension of capital also needed ?
https://topforeignstocks.com/listed-com ... -exchange/

UK pension companies own chunks of these companies listed on the London Stock Exchange…
Which in turn means us, though our pension savings…..