Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

I suspect the attack on the antonov airfield was a failed assassination attempt on the Ukrainian president. Putin wants regime change and decapitating the regime is one way of doing it, and would enable him to declare victory and (eventually) leave. If Ukraine manages to organise a significant civil resistance, the military would begin to suffer from morale and manpower issues. More than half the Russian army are in the area, and a protracted policing operation would be a big strain on a much reduced force compared to the days of the Afghanistan occupation.

[Mark]

Looks like Biden has let it slip that he wanted to kick out Russia from swift, but Europe will not agree.

Indeed, also cagey about China and India. The west and RoW are far from aligned currently.

Telegraph;
"Europe has vetoed expulsion of Russia from the SWIFT nexus of global payments for fear of the systemic blowback into its own banks, and because it would have made it hard to pay for Putin’s oil, gas, metals, and grains – leaving aside the risk that Russia might go all the way up the retaliation ladder. "

Maybe, but there are also alternatives out there to SWIFT that the Russians could use....
For example, the Chinese have the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)....
And/or a whole range of crypto currencies....

Anyway, I haven't heard HMG, or UK Banks, or the City, say anything on SWIFT ??
But you can only fixate yet again on the EU - reading your posts, you'd think they'd invaded Ukraine rather than Russia....
Just to remind - they're on our side - NATO etc.

[PS_RalphW]

The latest tactical report on the BBC has the Russians in outskirts to the north of Kiev in strength, and making advances in the south from Crimea. This looks like a classic pincer movement to cut off the main Ukrainian army in the east and annex the whole of the east of Ukraine, were the open plain bread basket is.

Tentative figures puts Russian losses at 450 but that has to be a guess

After strong initial resistance, I expect the main offensive to accelerate and be over in a week.

[Stumuz2]

I've been following developments very closely today, the MSM and official statements but mostly the open source stuff on social networks. I've come to the conclusion the Russian activities are really quite limited today and a bit odd.

Just heard the defence secretary (I know Tory scum, cake, tinsel, half packet of crisps) say he estimates >400 Russian troops dead, 12 aircraft down, multiple tanks out. Also the airport being retaken by Ukrainian forces. Also, head of Russia int' said Putin is in the messianic stage of his leadership and did not expect demonstrations in Russia or the fight back of, in his mind, fellow Russians.

A lot of people (not you Chris) get their world view from their iPhone. It has helped Putin enormously.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia has 12000 military aircraft. Losing 12 on the first day against a prepared defence is not going to stop your advance. Nor is 400 casualties out of 150,000 troops.

I listened to the independent defense analyst on the same broadcast, not the politician. The Russians did meet strong resistance on some fronts, but the Ukrainians are hopelessly outgunned, and the Russians will now have complete control of the skies.

The resistance, if it comes, will not be on the battlefield, but in the streets of the cities with snipers an RPGs. It is a matter of how much Ukrainians are prepared to fight on the streets when the war is lost.

[Stumuz2]

Maybe, but there are also alternatives out there to SWIFT that the Russians could use....
For example, the Chinese have the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)....
And/or a whole range of crypto currencies....

Yes that would put them at the mercy of China. Not good for a control freak like Putin. Russia? Crypto's? yeh right.

Anyway, I haven't heard HMG, or UK Banks, or the City, say anything on SWIFT ??

You also haven't heard of turkeys voting for Christmas.

But you can only fixate yet again on the EU - reading your posts, you'd think they'd invaded Ukraine rather than Russia....

They have facilitated the invasion. Especially Germany aided and abetted by Putins chum Macron.
A huge amount of Germans have have pro Russian sympathies. The ex chancellor of Germany is on Gazprom's board. By giving access to infrastructure funding they have emboldened a dictator. But they do have dictator sympathies.

Just to remind - they're on our side - NATO etc.

Like Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta, and Sweden?

[Stumuz2]

Russia has 12000 military aircraft. Losing 12 on the first day against a prepared defence is not going to stop your advance. Nor is 400 casualties out of 150,000 troops.

I listened to the independent defense analyst on the same broadcast, not the politician. The Russians did meet strong resistance on some fronts, but the Ukrainians are hopelessly outgunned, and the Russians will now have complete control of the skies.

The resistance, if it comes, will not be on the battlefield, but in the streets of the cities with snipers an RPGs. It is a matter of how much Ukrainians are prepared to fight on the streets when the war is lost.

Agree with all that Ralph. Push comes to shove you have to, as a citizen, be prepared to kill two invaders by each adult citizen.

[Stumuz2]

As an aside there may be a couple of areas of weakness in Putins long term plan.

1/ Mass communication by social media. People get to see the other side now. Will they like occupation? Will the Russian people enjoy being the aggressors, especially the young? Can ground level resistance be organised by social media? will the Russians shut off social media if they do? Ukraine is not Czechoslovakia or Hungary in the 50's

2/ The Euro. In his quest to de-dollarise Putin has transferred his nations 'savings' out of dollars and into mostly gold and euros. His plan is to weaken the dollar as a reserve currency. BUT, the insane inflationary policies of the ECB have undermined the financial health of the entire euro system to the point that the ECB and all the national central banks that make up the ECB (with only three minor exceptions) have liabilities greater than their assets.
Aka, the ECB is bankrupt.

The whole eurozone is a mountain of financial disasters balanced on an apex over which it is set to topple. They like the rest of the world have printed insane amounts of debt, but unlike UK/US/Japan etc who can print and clear the debt by hyperinflation (happening at the moment) the ECB at the behest of Germany will not allow a controlled hyperinflation so the printed debt of the ECB basically belongs to Germany via the TARGET 2 system. Now, inflation is not only with us but will accelerate because of what Putin did yesterday. There cannot be any raising of ECB interest rates because of the mountain of uninflatable debt.

So, in the next few months, maybe even weeks ,the Eurozone may collapse. And Putin is holding a large % of Euros as his countries savings.

[automaticearth2]

Russia has 12000 military aircraft. Losing 12 on the first day against a prepared defence is not going to stop your advance. Nor is 400 casualties out of 150,000 troops.

I listened to the independent defense analyst on the same broadcast, not the politician. The Russians did meet strong resistance on some fronts, but the Ukrainians are hopelessly outgunned, and the Russians will now have complete control of the skies.

The resistance, if it comes, will not be on the battlefield, but in the streets of the cities with snipers an RPGs. It is a matter of how much Ukrainians are prepared to fight on the streets when the war is lost.

Agree with all that Ralph. Push comes to shove you have to, as a citizen, be prepared to kill two invaders by each adult citizen.

I know a fair few Russians and Ukrainians due to the job I have. This is all so desperately sad. The Russians tell me that protests are happening across the larger cities that they're aware of (Moscow, St Petersburg, and Vladivostok out in the east). The protests are being brutally put down; 'their heads are being bashed bloody' is one English translation that I saw. One Russian lady was almost in tears saying 'I'm so, so sorry, this is not what any of us wanted'.
The Ukrainians thought that the Western media was being 'over the top' with their stories of Russia looking to invade Ukraine; guess they weren't. I pointed them to this very forum, and also pointed out that what they are seeing is probably the biggest failure of Western statecraft in my lifetime.
I pointed them to an article in a British newspaper (Daily Express, yes I know, not a great publication), where Robert Peston, a respected journalist, was partly blaming Brexit for Putin's actions. They thought it was a joke; I said it wasn't. My respect for the guy, and UK journalism in general, evaporated when I saw that, I said.
I also pointed out that while Russia was building up it's influence and later it's forces, we (the UK, EU) were arguing about non-effective UK covid vaccines, cakes, parties, and Brexit (yes, really). I also belatedly pointed out that so-called president Biden was berating the UK, a Five Eyes member, about Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol, while saying the 'axis of influence' was moving from London to Paris/Berlin, while he gave tacit approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline while cancelling a pipeline back home (the Keystone XL pipeline between Canada and the US).
Another Russian pointed out that a significant number of respected Russian generals and strategists are very uneasy with what Putin is doing, and are very worried for the existence of Russia as an entity in it's current form. I said I agree especially if Putin steps into one of the Baltic states. That triggers Article 5, which would bring the US , all 20-plus NATO countries, and Turkey into the melee. Saying that, Biden probably doesn't even know know what NATO, let alone Article 5, even is
Lastly, I said, this is what 30 years of neoconservative liberalism brings you; lots of hubris, and possibly the destruction of Ukraine, the West in it's current form, and maybe even Russia. Sad times indeed. Apologies for the long post.

[Stumuz2]

No apologies needed, very thoughtful post.

[Stumuz2]

Germany has had a quiet word with Ireland,

Micheal Martin, Ireland's Taoiseach, also defended the decision not to remove Russia from the network,
"People have different perspectives on the efficacy or value of Swift in itself, so I don't think we should singularly focus on Swift because the sanctions will hit hard at the industrial base, in terms of areas that will hurt the Russian economy," Mr Martin said. "Over time these sanctions will have an impact. It won't halt what is happening."

Old allies sticking together.

[UndercoverElephant]

Ukrainian government is handing out 18,000 machine guns to any residents of Kiev willing to take up arms. That is not something Russia can deal with by dropping bombs or using tanks. It requires human beings clearing buildings one by one. There is potential there for something like the Battle of Stalingrad. If the Ukrainians stand their ground, we could be talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths, shared by both sides.

[clv101]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1497 ... MeS6w&s=19

These kinds of videos are spooky, where is everyone, abandoned, no clean up... What happened just a few hours before this was filmed?

[adam2]

Latest reports state that 18,000 automatic weapons have been issued to civilian volunteers in Kyiv. Presuming that plenty of ammunition is available for these weapons, that suggests that the invaders will have a considerable fight on their hands.

I am impressed that the Ukrainian government HAD 18,000 weapons to issue.

[Stumuz2]

This is something Putin does not want. Close quarter battle by civilians.
Maybe Putin has forgot the lessons of Stalingrad.