Gas supply crunch

[kenneal - lagger]

A Polish school friend of mine used blankets but they wrapped them in a cover so that they were very much like a duvet.

Happy Christmas all.

[emordnilap]

Agree, that many people dress most unsuitably, and then complain at the cost of heating.
Most adults and children do not need a room temperature greater than 22 degrees, and could perhaps manage with slightly lower temperatures.

Current temperatures in my home.
Living room-------------------------------about 23 degrees, but rather variable according to where measured.
Bathroom----------------------------------14 degrees, can be heated to mid 20s with Tilley radiator when showering etc. Not heated otherwise.
Kitchen-------------------------------------21 degrees due to recent use of oven, usually colder than that.
Bedroom------------------------------------15 degrees, electric heater available but not normally used.
Downstairs W.C.---------------------------12 Degrees, can be heated with an oil lamp to prevent frost damage, but not needed at present.

I am wearing one piece long underwear, lightweight trousers, sweatshirt, Cornish smock.

Pretty much the same here (though I have a fleece on rather than a smock).

The wife is keeping warm knocking out an old fireplace.

Doing a bit of work in the garden is always a good way of saving fuel.

We don't light the woodstove till it's dark.

[Vortex2]

Current temperatures in my home.
Living room-------------------------------about 23 degrees, but rather variable according to where measured.
Bathroom----------------------------------14 degrees, can be heated to mid 20s with Tilley radiator when showering etc. Not heated otherwise.
Kitchen-------------------------------------21 degrees due to recent use of oven, usually colder than that.
Bedroom------------------------------------15 degrees, electric heater available but not normally used.
Downstairs W.C.---------------------------12 Degrees, can be heated with an oil lamp to prevent frost damage, but not needed at present.

We have a warm air system so we live at 19C - 20C mostly, in every room.
Can drop to 16C for a while early mornings as the heat pump is heating water overnight.

[Vortex2]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet ...

The UK and Europe have 'hijacked' several LNG tankers to come to us.

The price we are paying must be crazy!

(This situation reveals how fragile the Western Europe enegy system is. We could be brought to our knees in days following a major incident, natural or manmade. Being off-grid - or with buffer stores - makes a lot more sense now).

[adam2]

I don't believe that we have "hijacked" any LNG tankers. Hijacking implies armed force taking over a vessel.
More likely is that we have simply offered a higher price than was otherwise available.

Gas prices have dropped a bit, but remain at THREE times the last peak, and at many times the historical norm.

[emordnilap]

I don't believe that we have "hijacked" any LNG tankers. Hijacking implies armed force taking over a vessel.
More likely is that we have simply offered a higher price than was otherwise available.

Gas prices have dropped a bit, but remain at THREE times the last peak, and at many times the historical norm.

Gasumped?

[BritDownUnder]

I have noticed on Gridwatch that nuclear power is quite high. Must be running most reactors now.

Energy storage is a problem for Europe as like most other things electricity has become a 'just-in-time' business.

[adam2]

This report states that high gas prices "could last for two years" whilst implying that after those two years, that everything will be back to normal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59957716

Also the effort to re-brand natural gas as being a good and green " transitional fuel" rather than a bad old fashioned fossil fuel.

[kenneal - lagger]

..............
(This situation reveals how fragile the Western Europe enegy system is. We could be brought to our knees in days following a major incident, natural or manmade. Being off-grid - or with buffer stores - makes a lot more sense now).

It's not just the energy system. When Suez was blocked for a few weeks last autumn almost the whole retail distribution system of Europe went into melt down and it is still recovering.

The food distribution system isn't much better either and ours, in the UK, is probably the worse as the rely on imports so much!

[adam2]

Despite modest electricity demand, and plenty of wind, I observe that we are generating significant electricity from coal.
I wonder if an unofficial panic message has been sent out "burn more coal to save gas" in view of the news from Ukraine.

There is not YET any gas shortage nor significant price rises, beyond the "new normal" of about 200 pence a therm.

[Stumuz2]

Let us hope that we do not demolish any mothballed power plants for a few years. Until thing settle down.

[adam2]

Let us hope that we do not demolish any mothballed power plants for a few years. Until thing settle down.

I agree, though the potential is limited. Restoring a mothballed power plant to working order is a long and complex operation, with many possibilities for c0ck ups. Batteries for controls and emergency lighting become useless, ferrous parts rust, lubricants become ineffective, vermin make homes in unexpected places, transformers and alternators suffer from low insulation resistance, boiler certificates expire. Staff familiar with the plant are laid off and no longer available.

These problems can be prevented by keeping the plant in running order, but that involves considerable energy use and substantial labour costs.

Estimated time to re start a coal burning power plant from GOOD mothballed condition is a month or two.
From "cold and dark" but left in good condition, a day or two.
From shutdown but held ready for use, 12 hours.
From kept on hot standby a few hours.
Having been very recently running but "tripped to house load only" 10 minutes to full load, if nothing breaks.

[adam2]

About 2 GW of electricity still being generated from coal, despite plenty of wind. Looks as though a perhaps unofficial "SAVE GAS" Instruction has gone out.

[adam2]

Natural gas now at about 270 pence a therm, a significant increase over recent prices.

[adam2]

Natural gas is now at 300 pence a therm.

Does anyone know if ACTUAL MEASURED PHYSICAL flows of gas from Russia into the EU have been reduced ? Or put another way, is the high price due to what HAS happened, or is it due to fears of what MIGHT WELL happen.