Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

It would seem that HMG are keen to avoid any repeat of the criticism that they received after Afghanistan fell to the taliban. We cant save everyone from radical Islam, nor from communism.

Russia is not communist.

[Potemkin Villager]

Several news outlets are saying the invasion will start on Wednesday which seems remarkably accurate. Perhaps mr Putin has phoned news agencies to let the world know , clear sign of a military genius or maybe western military intelligence is top notch. No possibility of a false flag ?

More likely a false, false flag.

[UndercoverElephant]

It's transparent bullshit. Everybody knows there is an invasion coming soon, but nobody knows exactly when it is coming and it doesn't matter. It is not like the Normandy landings, when Hitler knew an invasion was coming but did not know when or where it was coming, and that lack of information turned out to be crucial. We know this invasion is coming this week, and it doesn't matter exactly where it comes from because the Ukrainian armed forces don't stand a chance.

[Mark]

It would seem that HMG are keen to avoid any repeat of the criticism that they received after Afghanistan fell to the taliban. We cant save everyone from radical Islam, nor from communism.

Russia is not communist.

Exactly, Russia is uber Nationalist, bordering on Fascist.
The only remaining officially communist states are China, Cuba, Laos, Vietnam and N Korea
China and Vietnam's economic models don't really fit communism any more and N Korea is really a personality cult...

Ukraine's UK Ambassador saying tonight that they might consider rewriting their constitution to remove the ambition to join NATO in return for Russia backing down - could be a way to de-escalate, but would be a reward for Russia's aggressive tactics....?

[UndercoverElephant]

Ukraine's UK Ambassador saying tonight that they might consider rewriting their constitution to remove the ambition to join NATO in return for Russia backing down - could be a way to de-escalate, but would be a reward for Russia's aggressive tactics....?

I don't think that's going to be enough to avoid looking like a defeat for Russia. I think it is too late to avoid the invasion now.

[UndercoverElephant]

I have no expectation of Russia advancing as far as Kiev.

I think they might be on the outskirts of Kiev within days.

This will have major impacts of the global food crisis. Ukraine is one of the world's largest wheat exporters, and the regions in the west are the most productive areas. There's likely to be major disruption to this year's yield and exports.

And to the gas supply, obviously.

Maybe I am completely misreading this, but it looks to me like what is about to happen in Eastern Europe is another major lurch downwards to civilisation as we know it. It is looking less and less likely that we are going to go back to anything resembling pre-covid normality, let alone pre-2008 normality. And what are the implications for NATO and the United States? If Russia annexes half - or more - of Ukraine, what happens next? Germany needs Russian gas. The US is not in any position to prevent Nord Stream 2 going into operation. I don't think Putin is scared of US economic sanctions. It might just accelerate the disintegration of US global power. I don't know where this is leading, but it doesn't look good.

[adam2]

Invasion is looking increasingly likely.
The markets do not seem unduly worried, which I find surprising. Natural gas remains very expensive if compared to years gone by, but it is not ANY MORE expensive than in the recent past, has been at around 200 pence a therm for some time.

[clv101]

Invasion is looking increasingly likely.

Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it. It could all still be just training, everyone back home by spring.

[kenneal - lagger]

Maybe it is just a cover to get large numbers of Russian troops into Belarus to prop up Lukashenko's regime without attracting too much Western attention. An internal coup deposing Lukashenko and installing someone with a bit of a democratic following would be a disaster for Moscow as that would be another part of its "shield" gone more to the west.

[PS_RalphW]

Interesting theory. Of course, annexing Belarus and bits of Ukraine are not mutually exclusive.

Putin says he is withdrawing front line troops, the US says he is advancing them. Probably a good point for Putin to put a in false flag attack and say to his people - 'Look, as soon as we relaxed our guard those evil Ukrainians attack us in the back".

Oil price is volatile, NG is slowly declining, perhaps because winter demand is down on warmer, windier weather?

[adam2]

President of Ukraine states "no other path than NATO for Ukraine"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60413332

That should upset Putin.

[kenneal - lagger]

...... Probably a good point for Putin to put a in false flag attack and say to his people - 'Look, as soon as we relaxed our guard those evil Ukrainians attack us in the back".
........

What, our brother Slav Ukrainians?

Oil price is volatile, NG is slowly declining, perhaps because winter demand is down on warmer, windier weather?

You can actually loose more heat in a British house in warmer, windier weather than in cold, still weather because our houses are so leaky.

[PS_RalphW]

The US now seems to be saying that it expects Russia to attack the Ukraine in the next few days, that the uptick in ceasefire violations in the eastern area held by Russian nationals is leading up to a false flag operation to justify invasion.

There does not seem to be any expectation that Putin will stand down or delay the invasion

[kenneal - lagger]

President of Ukraine states "no other path than NATO for Ukraine"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60413332

That should upset Putin.

And the more pressure bully Putin puts on Ukraine the more they will feel the need to become a member of NATO.

Psychopath that he is, he probably can't see that or isn't really interested as he wants the Ukraine anyway he can get it.

[Stumuz2]

Putin is to recognise breakaway regions of Ukraine. Looks like US/UK intelligence was spot on.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795

The military build up on the border was/is costing Putin a huge amount of resources. It had to have a purpose. Now we know.