Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

UK to send weapons to Ukraine, for defence, anti tank rockets mainly and a small number of men to train local forces in use of these.
As reported in various media.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white- ... t-n1287649

The assessment comes as Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Ukraine this week to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Blinken spoke with Russia’s foreign minister on Tuesday morning and the two plan to meet in Geneva, where he will urge Russia to “take immediate steps to de-escalate,” Psaki said.

The U.S. and Russia held talks this month that failed to resolve the standoff between the two countries after Russia amassed more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border. The U.S. has warned Russia of dire economic consequences should it invade Ukraine, including crippling economic sanctions.

I don't think it is going to happen, but I could be wrong. If it does happen then it will be very interesting to see how the US responds. If it tries to cut Russia off economically, this will just accelerate the destruction of the existing dollar-based monetary system.

[UndercoverElephant]

OK, I have changed my mind. I think Russia is going to invade Ukraine. The US wants to threaten to kick Russia out of the SWIFT payment system, but the Germans have refused to agree to this. We've got the US internally beginning the descent into chaos, and we've got a gas supply crisis where Putin holds all the cards. His point is this: "What is stopping me annexing the eastern half of Ukraine?" Nothing, by the look of it.

[adam2]

I do not expect a "blatant" invasion.
More likely IMHO is some sort of coup, revolt, or workers takeover in Ukraine, with the new regime in Ukraine then asking Russia to send troops for humanitarian help and peacekeeping. Not an invasion, but a reasonable response to a call for help.

[clv101]

Yep, it'll be spun as the a reasonable response to aggression from the Ukrainian nationalists. I have no expectation of Russia advancing as far as Kiev.

This will have major impacts of the global food crisis. Ukraine is one of the world's largest wheat exporters, and the regions in the west are the most productive areas. There's likely to be major disruption to this year's yield and exports.

[UndercoverElephant]

A picture tells a thousand words.

[BritDownUnder]

Yep, it'll be spun as the a reasonable response to aggression from the Ukrainian nationalists. I have no expectation of Russia advancing as far as Kiev.

This will have major impacts of the global food crisis. Ukraine is one of the world's largest wheat exporters, and the regions in the west are the most productive areas. There's likely to be major disruption to this year's yield and exports.

East or West? I would have the West of Ukraine as being Carpathian rolling landscape, and according to Russians, "fashisti" country. I would have thought Russia is about grabbing the East for the coal and the wheat, and the fact that a lot of the people there feel quite Russian anyway. I kind of hope the Ukrainians give them a bloody nose for their trouble and there is a lot of 'forest brother' activity afterwards.

[adam2]

Americal orders families of embassy staff to leave Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60106416

And also urges other US citizens to consider leaving.

[clv101]

Here's some light relief: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHLU0Ue ... nnel=Tooth

[clv101]

Seem some scale of invasion is likely within the next fortnight:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status ... e490w&s=19

[Stumuz2]

Agree with most of that.
Remember, it takes serious amounts of wealth and resources to wage war.
It diminishes the ability to provide schools, hospitals, police, pensions.

[anotherexlurker]

I am sure its only a coincidence that 4 B52's arrived at Fairford today .

[PS_RalphW]

US and UK are asking their nationals to leave Ukraine ASAP.

The mood music is getting louder. Middle of the winter olympics would be a good time to avoid unfavourable press reports in neutral countries.

[adam2]

UK government warn that they will NOT be able to fly people out of Ukraine and that they should therefore leave now whilst flights are available and roads are still open.

It would seem that HMG are keen to avoid any repeat of the criticism that they received after Afghanistan fell to the taliban. We cant save everyone from radical Islam, nor from communism.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60359400

[Lurkalot2]

Several news outlets are saying the invasion will start on Wednesday which seems remarkably accurate. Perhaps mr Putin has phoned news agencies to let the world know , clear sign of a military genius or maybe western military intelligence is top notch. No possibility of a false flag ?