Gas supply crunch

[Potemkin Villager]

Sure Jersey is so ludicrously wealthy they could easily afford to generate their own electricity!

[clv101]

French are threatening to cut off the 'leecy again.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ow-channel

This is just the start. The whole European energy grid, including the UK, is under unprecedented pressure right now. Wholesale gas prices are up another 40% this morning. The market is broken - this goes way beyond UK-FR fishing/brexit bickering.

[Potemkin Villager]

I'd like to know who is gaming the system.

[clv101]

Russia has the ability to ease the situation somewhat but I hear they are only meeting their long term contracts into Europe, and not supplying anything more into the spot market - despite these incredible prices. They might argue they have no 'spare' capacity and are simply choosing to ship gas East, as is their right.

[adam2]

I am beginning to panic.
Although the direct effects on me will be limited, I have no mains gas and use little electricity, the effects on wider society are going to be significant.
I use logs as my main heat source with anthracite in reserve. Getting worried about price and availability of these fuels.
Also worried about risk of my logs and anthracite being stolen. No room to keep it all locked up.
Under ordinary circumstances a thief would find it a lot easier to steal a pair of designer trainers or a bottle of spirits from a shop than to steal a bag of coal worth about £10 and not easy to carry.
However circumstances are about to become far from ordinary.

[clv101]

We need to see demand destruction. Announcements of factory shutdowns, extending Christmas closures, cutting street lighting etc.

The price rises hasn't stimulated increased supply. The prices will only come down with decreased demand.

[adam2]

This would be a good time for power station workers or national grid workers to strike.

[Stumuz2]

This is just the start. The whole European energy grid, including the UK, is under unprecedented pressure right now. Wholesale gas prices are up another 40% this morning. The market is broken - this goes way beyond UK-FR fishing/brexit bickering.

Agree, it is a convenient fig leaf. I wonder which will be the next supplier to go bust?

[Stumuz2]

We need to see demand destruction, cutting street lighting etc.

I was in Spain when the GFC occurred and local town councils were going bust. The first thing they did was shut off the public street lighting. Very strange and eerie feeling immediately descended.

[Catweazle]

I keep two tons of anthracite in reserve, as backup for LPG central heating. I'm starting to use some for day-to-day heating to conserve the LPG for water heating and cooking.

[Stumuz2]

Putin said he will deliver gas to 'stabilse Europe
'https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... -ftse-100/

I wonder who has caved?
The EU ignoring their treaties and allowing the owners of the gas and the pipeline to be the same?
Or Putin cashing in on the higher price?

[adam2]

Gas price has fallen significantly today from a brief peak of about 400 pence down to about 260 pence.
Before any undue optimism breaks out we should remember that this price is still over three times the last peak, and would have been almost unbelievable a few months ago.

Get ready for headlines "fat cat power bosses impose HUGE increases on families as wholesale prices PLUMETT, calls for enquiry as prices fall 30% in ONE DAY but families face higher charges"

EDIT TO ADD, see post immediately before this

[adam2]

I hope that Putin will manipulate the supply so as to keep prices higher than in the past, but not so high as to cause excessive shocks to the system.

A higher price discourages excessive use and promotes low carbon alternatives. About 80 to 100 pence a therm would be good in my view, increasing each year by between 5% and 10% in real terms.

[clv101]

For what it's worth, here are Putin's public comments in full:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66866

[Stumuz2]

Just hearing on Radio 4 that Putin can send substantial gas to EU if the EU certifies Nord stream 2 quickly.
So we have come full circle.

Nord stream 2 is a geopolitical weapon targeting Ukraine.
EU treaties (highest form of law within the EU) state that a pipe owner cannot also sell the gas.
Germany is desperate for gas.
Germany is the de facto head of the EU and especially the Euro.

Will Nord stream 2 get the certificate from the EU?

The next couple of weeks will be decisive.