‘A perfect storm’: supply chain crisis could blow world economy off course

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... port-covid

All the problems are in one way or another tangled up in the surge of post-pandemic consumer demand, but taken together they threaten what one leading economist calls a “stagflationary wind” that could blow the global economy off course.

Mohamed El-Erian, and adviser to the insurance giant Allianz and president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, says this week’s surprise fall in factory output in China was a clear warning that the world economy could slump while prices were still rising quickly, a doomsday double whammy that almost sank the UK in the 1970s.

“The supply chain problems are much more persistent than most policymakers expected, although companies are less surprised,” he said. “Governments are having to rethink quickly because the three elements – supply side, transport, labour – are coming together to blow a stagflationary wind through the global economy.”

Energy shortages are providing the starkest illustration of the problem, with increasing numbers of petrol stations in the UK running out of fuel, and cities in northern China having to ration power and force factories in the world’s number one manufacturing nation to shutter just when pre-Christmas demand is reaching a peak in the west.

Both countries have been caught out by not having enough reserves amid a scramble throughout the world for natural gas and for oil, which has almost doubled in price in 12 months to nearly $80 a barrel.

[adam2]

Lack of storage of almost everything is a huge problem.
Not JUST fuels, but also manufactured goods, non perishable foods, and building materials.
Any stock will eventually be used up, but a years supply of food, fuel, and the more crucial manufactured goods should be stocked by both governments and by individuals.

What will happen in the event of extreme weather, or war, or a major terrorist attack coinciding with present problems.

[Stumuz2]

I have just changed the oil and battery on the 5kw diesel genny.
I have a feeling that for the first time in the 12 years i have had it. It may be needed.

[UndercoverElephant]

The imagery is such nonsense.

"A perfect storm" (= "a short term tempestuous event, big trouble...but temporary).

"A stagflationary wind that could blow the world economy off course". What course is that then? Ah yes, the course of never-ending growth, which was always guaranteed to be impossible. It won't be like a wind, because winds stop blowing eventually. This is more like gravity.

The question remains: how does the stagflation end? Because this time it can't end with a fossil fuel boom and the inflation of a property bubble.