Gas supply crunch

[Stumuz2]

Who is the 'the leading operator'?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... y-supplier

[clv101]

The energy markets are getting interesting:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -all-costs

China seems to have reached the limit of how much slowdown they are willing/able tolerate and will now unleash whatever monetary and fiscal stimulus it takes to keep the energy flowing. Europe and especially the UK is not ready for a global energy bidding war with China.

[kenneal - lagger]

They will soon learn that buying up a lot of the available fuel supply to keep on producing is not very sensible if your customers' economy crashes due to lack of fuel. Their factories will either close due to lack of fuel or lack of customers.

[BritDownUnder]

Option 2C
Put energy prices on a sliding scale so the more you buy the more you pay. That will mean people in big houses and with more than one house pay more and it could be substantially more to reflect their surplus income. That might see a lot of big houses come on the market which could be good all round as it would slow the inflation in house prices considerably.

That's what our local council does with the water bills. Not quite a sliding scale but has several tarif levels depending on amount used. When I was single and no children I paid the lower level. With four now in the house I pay the highest tarif. I did not move to a bigger house so think this is somewhat unfair, however in comparison to electricity usage, water use is probably more proportional to number of household occupants than electricity usage is. There is a scheme in Australia where the first 2000kWh per year gets a rebate if the occupant is elderly. OK but probably adds to admin costs.

I do recall somewhere that a 'rabid' right wing commentator remarked that Al Gore's power bill was about 10x the average American's power bill. I don't remember Mr Gore disputing this fact.

I don't think the super rich and oligarchs care much about their power bills and if they did they would probably get solar and batteries installed.

[emordnilap]

Option 2C
Put energy prices on a sliding scale so the more you buy the more you pay. That will mean people in big houses and with more than one house pay more and it could be substantially more to reflect their surplus income. That might see a lot of big houses come on the market which could be good all round as it would slow the inflation in house prices considerably.

TEQs and C&S were always the way forward.

[adam2]

The UK natural gas storage position has improved with stocks now being a little higher than at this time last year. Demand has also dropped a bit due to high winds.
Before any undue optimism breaks out, remember that UK storage is very small relative to demand, and that prices remain exceptionally high, about the same as last week.

[clv101]

UK storage is pretty irrelevant in a strategic sense.

What's more important is that European storage is well below the 10 year range: https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1 ... hnpUA&s=19

[clv101]

This is getting ridiculous, European gas up another 13% today, ~275p/therm or ~$215 in oil/energy terms.

[adam2]

I am shocked, and I am not easily shocked.
Expect more gas and electricity retailers to go bust.

If domestic consumers are to be protected against market prices for an extended period, then a vast subsidy will be needed, funded by tax increases presumably. This will be unpopular with those those who are of grid in particular.

If market prices are passed on to domestic consumers then the scale of the increases will result in loss of life, riots and civil disorder.

[anotherexlurker]

I don't think many people understand just how serious the situation is, the usual answer is that "its alright as my supplier has brought in gas in the summer at a lower price", without understanding that their supplier has most likely simply purchased a contract from a trader who may yet go bust leaving the contract not worth the paper it's written on. Even if the trader survives (as we all know) simply having a contract to supply Gas is not the same as being able to supply a delivery when required. I can't believe that futures contracts where written with these prices in mind , so someone somewhere is losing their shirt.

I don't see what anyone can do about it either , other than hope like hell that we get a very mild winter.

Yesterday I did a 50 mile round trip to collect another 15kg calor cylinder that is 70% full and even with my diesel costs still only cost me £42 (about the same as a new cylinder hire, if you could get one).

[adam2]

I agree entirely that most people have no idea how serious this is.
There is a very general view that it will not affect THEM.

[adam2]

Now over 300 pence a therm. Shocking.
Even I never thought it would go this high, and not even winter yet.
Is the winter weather forecast yet available ?

[clv101]

Oct/Nov/Dec forecast warmer than average and more likely to be wetter than drier. No info about Jan-Feb yet and that's were any extreme cold is more likely.

[kenneal - lagger]

Now if the government had listened to my National Home Insulation scheme proposal ten years ago when I first published it they would have had about 9 million houses using practically no heating fuel at the moment and be insulating 800,000 to a million homes a year. That would have made quite a difference to this crisis.

https://www.facebook.com/insulatehouses

[Stumuz2]

French are threatening to cut off the 'leecy again.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ow-channel