Telegraph announces the apocalypse has come

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ple-black/

[adam2]

I largely agree.

I doubt that any one single reasonably foreseeable problem will bring about TEOTWAWKI, but fear that a combination of several such problems could have most serious consequences

The present shortages of some foods and of petrol are not in themselves that serious, food is still plentiful though the choice is restricted, petrol is still generally available and supplies should improve once everyone has filled their tanks. BUT both problems are arguably symptomatic of more general underlying issues and of a lack of resilience.

Of greater concern IMHO is the record breaking natural gas price, this is NOT short term but might well be the new normal. The previous peak was just over 80 pence a therm and was only for a few days, THIS peak is much higher and has already persisted for a couple of months.
We have already seen the consequences for electricity prices, fertiliser production and carbon dioxide production.

Should be survivable, but what if something else goes wrong as well ? Possibilities that occur to me me include.

A huge increase in oil prices, to twice todays level, or higher.
Large scale power outages, not the odd rota cut but something more serious.
Truly extreme weather event leading to large scale loss of life and infrastructure damage.
Nuclear war, even a small one a long away and not involving us, would have serious consequences for trade and food and oil imports.
Large scale rioting or civil disorder in the UK.
Major terrorist attack, not just murdering people, but damaging critical infrastructure.

[UndercoverElephant]

For me the immediate key question is whether what we're seeing now is

(1) a wobble towards systemic failure that has largely been triggered by covid (and to a certain extent brexit), and which will be followed by a temporary reprieve where something more like pre-covid appears to be returning

or

(2) the start of a major slide downwards from which society will never return.

We've already brought forwards our plans to escape to Wales. We're going next summer now. Kind of hoping things settle down until we're moved!

[clv101]

My feeling is for option 2, but the gradient of descent will vary significantly across the world. Unfortunately I expect the UK to fair worse than average over the coming decade (but not a 'fast crash'). The "major slide downwards from which society will never return" was inevitable, that much was clear well over a decade ago, some would suggest the data has been pretty clear for some 50 years. Covid has been the straw that broke the camel's back, if it had never happened we could have bumped along for another decade+. I think the penultimate straw was the 2008 financial crisis, it could have been a lot worse but the central bankers/politicians managed to keep the show on the road but we never really recovered from it, mortal damage was done.

From that Telegraph article, "Why are so many Black Swan events coming at once?", they aren't black swans if they have been predicted, modelled, included in national risk registers! Black swans are the things we didn't expect - high gas prices? The black swan is that it's taken 21 years since the UK North Sea gas peak before it happened.

[mikepepler]

I'd go for option 2 as well. COVID has been like an earthquake hitting a building that was already a bit wobbly. Without it things might have carried on with slow decline for a while, but so much has been shaken up now that the process has been accelerated. There was also a year of pretty much no progress on climate stuff too. If this winter is cold, either here or mainland Europe, then more problems will come I think. Also if a power station goes offline or another interconnector breaks down.

The strange thing is I'm not that worried about it now. Not because I'm sufficiently prepared (though perhaps better than some), but because I've got used to the idea that this is the way things are going and there's nothing I can do about it.

[Tarrel]

I can't remember if it was Greer or Kunstler who likened the coming collapse to tumbling down a mountainside. It will be a series of fits and starts, calamities mixed in with slow decline.

Whatever the acuteness of the current stage in the collapse process, the underlying "mega drivers" are ever-present; depletion of cheap, high-grade energy; ever-increasing debt burden; environmental degradation and over-population. One could add in to that (certainly in the West), cultural degradation. I wasn't expecting that one, but I guess you only have to look back at Rome to recognise it as a symptom of collapse.

Unless we come up with an energy game-changer and/or a different way of governing ourselves I do feel the future is looking a bit bleak.

Up here in Northern Scotland we're fairly well insulated from the immediate effects, but they'll catch up with us I think.

Still, the sun's shining today. . Unfortunately the wind isn't blowing!

[Potemkin Villager]

So is the righteous War Office Gazette also making any suggestions how these problems might be addressed?
Maybe compulsory military service, military aid to the civil power, troops to harvest crops
and slaughter livestock ah but I forgot they are already earmarked to assist in delivering fuel
to petrol stations. BBC news reported this as employing tank drivers (sic). An interesting
thought though I think they may have meant tanker drivers.

[Mark]

I'll go for option (1)

There is no fuel shortage - it's a matter of logistics, which I suspect will be resolved in a few weeks - you never know, a few people might go back to working from home or even drive less ??

There may be a limited food shortage coming - but many people eat too much and still waste loads of food - it's a good thing that people will have to think about it more - for example, there's an apple tree near me with loads on it - every year the owner just lets them fall to the floor and rot.... there's no panic until the 'excess' has gone from the system..., we've survived in this country on way less (wartime) and most people in the world already function perfectly well on a lot less. We've got soft and accustomed to a life of plenty/excess..., did somebody mention the Romans ??

As Adam2 says - gas availability/prices is probably the biggy at the mo.
We need it domestically for heating/cooking/electricity, but also for many key industrial processes, which would probably be prioritised...
Again, there is plenty of 'excess' in the system - how many shops/offices/homes do you still go into that are way too hot ??
Time will tell over the next 6 months, but the lack of investment in storage capacity may well be our biggest mistake...

[kenneal - lagger]

I would go for 2 although rather than the start of the slide I think it is the continuation of the slide.

I don't think that the government would cut off people and leave industry connected: that way lies revolution or at least unrest of the streets. They will keep the cap on for a while, and maybe increase it a little, in the hope that the price comes down before they have to increase the cap a lot. If the price doesn't come down, or come down enough, they will have to increase the cap to keep the major suppliers going. Subsidising the major suppliers would lead to increasing calls for the nationalisation of the suppliers in order to avoid large increases in price. The difference when nationalised is taken up by either printing current account money, very inflationary, or increasing taxation on someone, usually most of us rather than the rich as they manage to avoid most taxation, so we will end up paying anyway with those who use less or none subsidising the high users.

[adam2]

And here is another rather doomerish report.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58730849

Mainly about energy.