Brexit Watch

[Stumuz2]

There's also the small matter of The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.
The West has spent 30(?) years trying to stop Iran joining 'the club', but China/Russia/France will just allow Australia to join in 2 minutes without batting an eyelid ??

Israel, you forgot to mention Israel!

When you've digested that, then tell me how many Nuke warheads China has got.They state they have a small fraction of the U.S. and Russia arsenals.
Then ask yourself why they have so many nuke warhead cable launching assets?

Then come back with the niceties of unenforceable international law.

[Mark]

This thread is supposedly about the fall-out from Brexit.
Stumuz has hijacked it by making an unsubstantiated claim that Australia will be armed with nuclear weapons.
My fault for rising to the bait and feeding the troll - I apologise

[Stumuz2]

Ah! Abuse!
Love to get a bit of abuse. Evinces a distinct lack of a counter argument.

[BritDownUnder]

My not very Brexit related summary on the situation.
Australia tendered to 3 countries for conventional submarines and for some reason decided to go with French designed nuclear subs (I think called Barracuda class) and put diesels in them. This was widely seen as a bad deal at the time and I have no idea why it happened. Possibly France dangled a still unsigned Free-Trade agreement between Australia and the EU as a reward. Then Covid and Chinese 'wolf-warrior' diplomacy arose.
From what I understand these subs will be Hunter-Killers and only have torpedo tubes not ballistic missile tubes but torpedo tubes can also launch Tomahawk cruise missiles which are nuclear capable. I see no reason why these subs cannot be nuclear capable 'in the future' even if they are described as being not nuclear capable at present.

There seems to be no appetite for nuclear weapons in Australia at the moment but this could change after Iran gets them (and I do think it is only a matter of time before Iran does). Then Saudi Arabia will get them. Then there will be four (five if you count Israel) non-NPT signatory states bordering the Indian Ocean with nukes.

I see China responding by opening a submarine base at Gwadar in Pakistan, or maybe at the Sri Lankan port that they now own. Even before this announcement, China has already threatened to use a base in Vanuatu to place missiles and target Australia. The US and UK will have a base at Fremantle (local council has declared it a nuclear free zone - remember them!) or in South Australia which will give good strategic reach. Australia moves closer to the UK and US as a result and the UK gets access to a good food and resources supply to replace some of the supplies currently coming from the EU that they have threatened to block.

Australia gets security and the UK gets food. What's not to like?

It was also reported this week that South Korea tested a ballistic missile firing from one of their submarines.

[Stumuz2]

I would agree with that.
Although some people don't like the connotations, It is quite related to Brexit.
Brexit was part of what will be known as a period of global Trumpism. Where wealth became unequal, social advancement went backwards, and people from the minimum wage class decided to give TPTB a kick in the nuts.
Trump in playing to his customers gave an easy to understand basic message; It's China's fault, they have your jobs, you wealth, let's bring them home.

Happened in the 1930's, it has always happen.

Now China is being stopped/contained more?/ challenged in its wolf warrior plans, the only thing it can do is project its power.
When you say there is no appetite for nukes in Australia, ditto the UK in the 50's. We still got them whether we liked it or not.

[clv101]

From what I understand these subs will be Hunter-Killers and only have torpedo tubes not ballistic missile tubes but torpedo tubes can also launch Tomahawk cruise missiles which are nuclear capable. I see no reason why these subs cannot be nuclear capable 'in the future' even if they are described as being not nuclear capable at present.

Indeed, no technical reason why, and with the US push for very low 'dial-a-yield' warheads, there might be pressure from the US to include the capability. But I think it's unlikely.

[Stumuz2]

Indeed, no technical reason why, and with the US push for very low 'dial-a-yield' warheads, there might be pressure from the US to include the capability. But I think it's unlikely.

So we are agreed that the new subs will be 'capable' of firing land attack missiles, but we can reassure ourselves they will not be nuclear tipped? But could be?

[clv101]

Yep, that's fair to my limited understanding.

Who is providing the reactors? Does this deal tie in with the Rolls-Royce small, factory built reactors?

[Stumuz2]

Haven't a clue
My interest comes from having a slightly older brother who is/was an armaments engineer, and a father who worked on the blue steel stand off missiles in the 60's. I sort of grew up with this subject!

Things are never what they seem.

[kenneal - lagger]

So why is China claiming a new cold war and arms race has started? Why are they so rattled? They are only ordinary subs?

Because they are spending billions on a new surface navy which will be extremely vulnerable to more modern nuclear powered submarines operating in the area. They will definitely dent, have dented, China's sense of ownership of the sea around Asia.

[Stumuz2]

France having a serious sulk and recalling Ambassadors to US/ Australia.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... submarine/

Although cheesed off because of the lost cash/jobs they are more livid because of the lack of trust on behalf of Aukus which is basically excluding the French from intelligence sharing, and technology transfers, because they are manifestly viewed as an unreliable partner in higher echelons ofUK/US defence and intelligence.

I am firmly of the opinion that this decision to exclude the French from the China containment plan, would have been different if Micron had not gone off on his mini Napolean tour. His overt and covert threats to cut off the UK connection to the EU grid, and his deliberate briefing against the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine, because France's in-house vaccine( Sanofi ) failed, not only cost French/British lives, but left a very bitter taste.

And all because the UK had the temerity to give its citizens a meaningful vote. Micron, arrived in power, because the French electorate couldn't quite bring themselves to vote for Marianne le pen. He then expressly stated that the UK should derive 'no benefit' from leaving the EU, or must be punished, in English.

He should have taken cognisance of the old confucius saying,
“Before You Embark On A Journey Of Revenge, Dig Two Graves”

[BritDownUnder]

France having a serious sulk and recalling Ambassadors to US/ Australia.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... submarine/

I hear they have also cancelled an anniversary dinner in Washington celebrating a US/French victory in the Battle of Who Could Care Less during the American Revolution.

It's a serious humiliation for a country that it more used to delivering it to other countries such as blockading British trade with Europe or sinking ships in Auckland Harbour. I hope that some of the work is done by Rolls-Royce and Vickers shipbuilding (assuming they are still going).

[Stumuz2]

Most people just don't get what a political earthquake this is. Not just for France, but also for the EU. They have been spouting great visions of an EU military and defence industry.
It has fallen at the first hurdle.
A good synopsis byWolfgang Münchau.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/auk ... -impotence

[PS_RalphW]

BP and Tesco report fuel shortages at forecourts due to shortages of HGV drivers. Government says to the public do not panic buy fuel for your cars.

I remember posting on powerswitch during the 2000 fuel shortages under Blair when the tanker drivers went on strike (refused to cross picket lines) over fuel duty rises. Blair capitulated within 2 weeks.

I remember how quiet the roads were, and how slowly and safely people drove to save fuel.

I also thought - this nation would rather see this planet cook and burn than give up their cheap fossil fuels.

[BritDownUnder]

I recall the 2000 fuel strike as well. I did not have a car at that time and lived in Southampton. I took my bike one weekend on a train to the New Forest.

The main thing I remember was the speed at which the supermarket shelves emptied. No storage at all. All just in time deliveries.

I was so used to public transport and lived within walking distance to work and shops that it did not affect me really but got me thinking about the future in a serious way.