Gas supply crunch

[Stumuz2]

Excellent article in the Torygraph about this winters gas supplies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... s/#comment
Takeaways:
1. Russia is cutting off Europe from filling their summer stockpiles of gas to pressure the acceptance of Nord stream2
2. EU interconnecter system is very short of gas. If this becomes acute the EU does not have a good record of behaviour,

"The Commission threatened to curb flows through the interconnectors last winter as a pressure tool during Brexit talks. Emmanuel Macron issued that threat again over fishing rights in Jersey. It seems to be the first resort whenever there is tension with the UK. We saw how quickly the Commission turned feral over AstraZeneca vaccines once panic set in"

3. Ukraine is buggered this winter unless they know tow to putin.

[adam2]

This I view with considerable concern.
I do not trust Russia in general, and Putin in particular.
I do not trust the EU in general, and France in particular.

Despite the increased renewable generating capacity, we are still very reliant on natural gas for electricity generation. Our gas storage capacity was much reduced a few years ago.
We now have much less coal burning generating capacity, which was previously the "first reserve" in case of gas shortage.
Domestic gas production continues to decline.

Electricity imports could be affected, I very much doubt that France would burn expensive or scarce gas in order to export electricity to us.

[adam2]

Recommended viewing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYXP-BtfnzA

An old Panorama program about the consequences of an interruption to gas supplies from Russia. Since then, society has become more vulnerable to such an event.

Whilst I, and most members of these forums are probably prepared for this sort of thing, consider the indirect effects on society.

[UndercoverElephant]

This I view with considerable concern.
I do not trust Russia in general, and Putin in particular.
I do not trust the EU in general, and France in particular.

Not sure if I trust anybody at all. Maybe the Scandinavians and the Dutch.

[Stumuz2]

This I view with considerable concern.
I do not trust Russia in general, and Putin in particular.
I do not trust the EU in general, and France in particular.

Despite the increased renewable generating capacity, we are still very reliant on natural gas for electricity generation. Our gas storage capacity was much reduced a few years ago.
We now have much less coal burning generating capacity, which was previously the "first reserve" in case of gas shortage.
Domestic gas production continues to decline.

Electricity imports could be affected, I very much doubt that France would burn expensive or scarce gas in order to export electricity to us.

Hopefully, this will focus minds on more energy independence, more supply options, more domestic micro generation and concomitant energy efficiency.
LNG will probably increase in price substantially, but at least we have the infrastructure choice to buy it. LNG from Milford haven can supply 30% of UK gas demand.
Paradoxically, the EU vaccine debacle, will have done us a favour. We know that we cannot rely or trust them when things get sticky. The Italian military police raiding a private factory in Italy to prevent a shipment of vaccine to the UK was a real eyeopener.

[PS_RalphW]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57923655

US and Germany reach terms with Russia over the Nordstream 2 pipeline

[adam2]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57923655

US and Germany reach terms with Russia over the Nordstream 2 pipeline

Yes, it looks as though THIS panic is over, but the underlying vulnerabilities remain.
The UK as a nation should actively reduce reliance on imported natural gas and substitute home grown renewables so far as possible, in the interests of both the climate and national security.
Individuals should try to reduce utility reliance so far as possible.

[Stumuz2]

Panic may not be over.
https://www.ft.com/content/d14ec1a3-12f ... a2ae9bc004

"Natural gas prices in Europe and the UK have soared to some of the highest levels on record, threatening to raise costs for households and businesses as global supplies of the critical fossil fuel remain tight"

"A prolonged winter drained storage levels across Europe while Russia, the largest supplier, has sent less gas to the continent than before the pandemic. Critics believe Moscow is trying to pressure the EU to approve the launch of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline later this year."

To précis the situation, looks like the EU have known for quite a while that Russia is threatening Ukraine, Poland, with loss of revenue from transit fees, and increased energy prices.
Germany, the last de facto major payer into the EU budget, will benefit from cheaper energy, which it is very reliant. It will ignore the EU's moaning about solidarity etc.
Germany has always had a soft spot for Russia. About one out of every 63 East Germans collaborated with the East German secret police, the Stasi. The Stasi maintained greater surveillance over its own people than any secret police force in history.
Gerhard Schroder, the ex German Chancellor has become very rich since leaving office by sitting on Gazprom's board.

Russia will get its way, it will strong-arm the EU to back down. Germany will get its cheaper energy. 70% chance the gas crunch will be over in the next 3 weeks.

[BritDownUnder]

"Natural gas prices in Europe and the UK have soared to some of the highest levels on record, threatening to raise costs for households and businesses as global supplies of the critical fossil fuel remain tight"

They have peaked in Australia recently too. The reason given is the 'winter shortages' a fire/explosion at a coal power station that shut it down and flooding at another. Maybe having sold off most of the Australian supply of gas to overseas interests may also have something to do with it.

Germany has always had a soft spot for Russia. About one out of every 63 East Germans collaborated with the East German secret police, the Stasi. The Stasi maintained greater surveillance over its own people than any secret police force in history.
Gerhard Schroder, the ex German Chancellor has become very rich since leaving office by sitting on Gazprom's board.

There seems to be a lot of former 'East Germans' in the German government recently. Like with Corbyn, and maybe even Trump, the Russians play the long game and invest well in 'assets' and agents of influence.

[Stumuz2]

Exactly.

[Stumuz2]

A right wing 'Murican take on the gas supply crunch.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russi ... rns-screws

[adam2]

UK natural gas stocks are about half of those available at this time last year.

[BritDownUnder]

UK natural gas stocks are about half of those available at this time last year.

Good time to get solar or insulate your house then. And maybe not get a new gas boiler.

You could also take this as a bit of a sign of growing desperation on the part of the gas suppliers as they know their power of influence is beginning to slip away.

It may sound controversial to suggest but closing a lot of the UK coal generation capacity earlier than the lifespan of the equipment warranted was probably not a very good idea. You have to wonder how many 'agents of influence' are in the UK or EU policy making decision agencies.

[kenneal - lagger]

Given the power of the "agents of influence" over government, UK and EU, I doubt that the decision to close coal power plants early was anything but an economic decision. Just look at the huge number of coal fired plants still working in Europe.

[Stumuz2]

Looks like the EU still have not buckled to Germanys behind the scenes threats of withdrawing support for the Euro. They will.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europ ... -collapses

It will end with an EU climb down, Germany needs the gas, they have no alternative. Germany will get the gas, and sell its neighbours down the river.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/e ... u-markets/