Brexit Watch

[Mark]

As the Brexit thread has been closed, thought I'd start a new one to discuss the consequences.....

My 3 major concerns pre-Brexit were:
(1) Increased legislation/bureaucracy and hence reduced trade with the EU
(2) Replacement of low skilled Polish/Romanian labour with Indian/Nigerian etc. in order to secure trade deals
(3) The break-up of the UK (medium-term)

Still very early days, but I've seen nothing so far to dissuade me from any of these predictions.

On the positive, I'll start the list with:
(1) Quicker rollout of the COVID vaccine
(2) ..........?
(3) ....?

Thoughts ?

[UndercoverElephant]

(3) The break-up of the UK (medium-term)

It is pointless using this phrase now. It is essential that you distinguish between NI leaving the UK and the breakup of the rest of the UK. Irish re-unification now looks highly likely. Scottish independence, for all the flag-waving and rhetoric from the nationalists, looks extremely unlikely. If anything, brexit has made Scottish independence less likely.

[Stumuz2]

It is pointless using this phrase now. It is essential that you distinguish between NI leaving the UK and the breakup of the rest of the UK. Irish re-unification now looks highly likely. Scottish independence, for all the flag-waving and rhetoric from the nationalists, looks extremely unlikely. If anything, brexit has made Scottish independence less likely.

I would disagree that NI is highly likely to leave.

First, Britain is an 'island' that is made up of 3 separate countries. Ireland is an 'island' that is made up of 2 separate countries.
Second, we get most of our information about Ireland from a biased BBC. I was listening to the today programme a few days ago on the subject of the temporary sea border. The talking heads they got on to pontificate was the leader of Sinn Fein, Mary Lou and a Dublin MP, I mean WFF?
I would say NI is the least likely to leave for many and unrelated reasons.

As for Scotland, again, mostly a London centric BBC reporting.

Look at Hartlepool this morning. Never underestimate the majorities desire for cohesion in a fast changing and uncertain world. According to the Guardian every British fisherman feels betrayed by the UK for the fisheries deal. Yet dig a little deeper, they are better off with bigger share of the catch. They know only too well that the EU would not send a couple of gun boats to protect their interests.

[Stumuz2]

As the Brexit thread has been closed, thought I'd start a new one to discuss the consequences.....

My 3 major concerns pre-Brexit were:
(1) Increased legislation/bureaucracy and hence reduced trade with the EU
(2) Replacement of low skilled Polish/Romanian labour with Indian/Nigerian etc. in order to secure trade deals
(3) The break-up of the UK (medium-term)

1/ We were reducing trade with the EU for the last decade. The bloc had become a protectionist racket with concomitant corruption, immorality, lack of democratic oversight, and viewed election results like something they had trodden on. We were naturally pivoting away.
2/ The Indian/African migrants will be the highly skilled and nett positives, the EU almost 10% of current workforce were low skilled and displaced the indigenous workforce onto benefits.
3/ If we break up (I don't think we will) that is democracy. The bit the EU hates.

[kenneal - lagger]

Northern Ireland could well vote to join Ireland in the future because the Loyalist, protestant population is reducing while the birthrate in the Catholic, secessionist population is still high and their numbers are increasing. It is only a matter of time before the voting strength changes. We will then have to wait and see whether the Unionists fight for the Union like the IRA fought for their union with Ireland.

[Stumuz2]

I don’t think it’s that simple Ken, although nothing in Irish politics is ever simple at any time.

First the point about the Catholic/Protestant dichotomy. The big Irish catholic state that is RoI is gone and will never be back. To give some perspective, RoI was until recently, and the discovery of the Catholic child abuse/institutional killing of babies of single mums/ state cover up of crimes the most Catholic place on planet earth. The church was the state.
A few years ago, I was on a George Orwell walk around Barcelona. On the Q&A a question was posed on the lines of ‘was Spain’s deep Catholicism a factor in the civil war?
The reply was no. Because Spain had a recorded Church mass attendance of approx. 20% of the population. Ireland by contrast in the 1930’s 80%!

RoI has in a very short period of time become yet another country culturally.
The new god in RoI is money and who is going to give it to them. It was the EU, then the beggar thy neighbour’s tax dodging American tech/pharma. It will be interesting to see who is next.

There are valid reasons for RoI not to want to integrate with the North.

Similarly, there are those in the North that would favour an independent North rather than a united Ireland.

So, it’s not as simple as the old religious divide anymore. I would say that most inhabitants of Ireland are sanguine about any future changes. As with all current events it is a loud vocal minority which makes all the noise and headlines.
Case in point is today’s election results.

Wales. BBC reported a month ago that support for independence was at an all time high of 30-40%. Result Plaid Cymyru support has dropped. The rash of independence parties have lost their deposits.

England. Huge support on one union Conservatism. Huge rejection of identity politics. Again, a rejection of the loud vocal minority which makes all the noise and headlines.

Scotland. Looks at time of writing that a majority SNP is not on the cards. So probably no indy2. Result will be over the next 5 years a massive love bombing of cash for infrastructure, industry, and all things that have a return on investment above 1. In the highly unlikely case that there will be a yes vote in 5 years’ time. The extra spending goes onto the independent Scotland balance sheet.

To some up, the status quo was voted for.

[clv101]

Wales. BBC reported a month ago that support for independence was at an all time high of 30-40%. Result Plaid Cymyru support has dropped. The rash of independence parties have lost their deposits.

Yes, support for independence is at an all time high, but that doesn't automatically translate to increased support for Plaid. Remember much of Plaid's supports come from the small 'c' conservative, older people, in Welsh speaking areas in the west. A demographic who isn't as ready to vote for independence as the younger, 'Yes Cymru' crowd from the south which is where the increase in independence has come from.

[Mark]

To some up, the status quo was voted for.

A highly smug/complacent/simplistic summary, Stumuz.....

My take is that Brexit still forms a big part in voting patterns in England....
Brexit was very much driven by (mostly working class) English Nationalists - confirmed by the Tory vote in Hartlepool and the other northern local council elections. The Tory vote in the southern shires held up, or went down slightly. The big cities generally stayed with Labour, with the exception of Brum.

However, the situation in the rest of the UK is radically different:

Scotland - SNP(64); Conservative(31); Labour(22); Green(8); LD(4)
The SNP is only 1 seat short of an overall majority - just needs a by-election ?
This result was very difficult to achieve with the Scottish 'hybrid' voting system - I'm not an expert on Scottish Politics, but I understand that the Greens are in favour of Indyref2, so there's a majority for it in their Parliament. At some point, it's likely to end in the Courtroom whether Boris likes it or not...

NI - No voting this time
Country in constant turmoil and seemingly disadvantaged by Brexit - empty shelves, border checks etc. all causing resentment. Arlene Foster forced to quit the DUP. Steve Aiken stepped down from the UUP. Who knows how it will shake out, but Unionism looks under extreme pressure at the moment..., and we all know where that might lead.....

Wales - Labour(30); Conservative(16); PC(13); LD(1)
Not a massive change for PC - 20.3% of the vote - down 0.2% from last time - surprised they didn't do a little better given Labour's troubles.
Suspect Wales will either be the last to leave the UK, or remain tied to England.

[PS_RalphW]

In my neck of the woods the tories did badly. District Council elected 4 liberals, County Council tories lost overall control, mayor is now Labour, tories clung on to the pcc by a few percent. City Council still Labour.

We may be a small bubble of intellectual Liberal elites, but we are remainers (or now rejoiners) at our core and we do not forgive.

[Stumuz2]

A highly smug/complacent/simplistic summary, Stumuz.....

Why thank you sir

Brexit was very much driven by (mostly working class) English Nationalists -

Lazy thinking. Equivalent to a comfort blanket to snuggle up too. Wales voted to leave, Millions in Scotland/NI voted to leave. But if it helps you to think it was the dispossessed ignorant English Gammons, then fine

Scotland - SNP(64); Conservative(31); Labour(22); Green(8); LD(4)
The SNP is only 1 seat short of an overall majority - just needs a by-election ?

No change in Scotland. Just one seat extra. And when it comes to a referendum. They will stay. Because we will be further down the resource depletion curve and the world is changing to every country for themselves. Look at Biden's international tax planning to bring the $'s back to USA. It has just started.

Wales - Labour(30); Conservative(16); PC(13); LD(1)
Not a massive change for PC - 20.3% of the vote - down 0.2% from last time - surprised they didn't do a little better given Labour's troubles.
Suspect Wales will either be the last to leave the UK, or remain tied to England.

Wales will never leave the Union. Ever. See reply to CLV.

[Stumuz2]

Yes, support for independence is at an all time high, but that doesn't automatically translate to increased support for Plaid. Remember much of Plaid's supports come from the small 'c' conservative, older people, in Welsh speaking areas in the west. A demographic who isn't as ready to vote for independence as the younger, 'Yes Cymru' crowd from the south which is where the increase in independence has come from.

When it comes to politics, the old saying demography is destiny rings true.

The reason 'Wales' voted Labour is because in South Wales you do not count Labour votes, you weigh them.The majority of Welsh people live in industrial South Wales.
30% of Wales population were not born here. Mostly English immigrants who retire, lifestyle choice (yourself, U/E) are not untypical of recent arrivals. They mostly vote for the stars quo. .
There is a hefty proportion of population in the Wrexham area in the northeast. Welsh people are mostly white 96%.

Support for independence has always been about 3-4%. As you say most Plaid Cymyru supporters would rather drill a hole in their foot than vote for independence. Plaid has been very good at helping people/business get subsidies/grants/free dosh.

[clv101]

Brexit was very much driven by (mostly working class) English Nationalists -

Lazy thinking. Equivalent to a comfort blanket to snuggle up too. Wales voted to leave, Millions in Scotland/NI voted to leave. But if it helps you to think it was the dispossessed ignorant English Gammons, then fine

Ha, Mark said "(mostly working class) English Nationalists" which absolutely isn't "dispossessed ignorant English Gammons" that you read into it!

[Stumuz2]

But it's not really true that it was (mostly working class) English Nationalists. John Harris in the Guardian went round the left behind towns in England and found that those at the bottom of the pile (left behinds by globalisation) didn't vote. The votes of the poorer areas tended to come from the better off areas of the poorer areas (if that makes sense!)

[Stumuz2]

BTW
English gammons does bother me. It is just another way to write off a political view you don't agree with.

[Potemkin Villager]

I would be very interested to hear a convincing description of just what are the
benefits that Brexit has delivered so far.