New coronavirus in/from China

[PS_RalphW]

Not all countries are following the UK and vaccinating the old and sick first. Some are vaccinating the working population first as they are the primary route of transmission. The choice is not always clear cut as to which strategy will save most lives in each country.

Having decided that the oldest and most frail should be vaccinated first in the UK, there are a small percentage of this group who are so frail that even the mild fever symptoms that the vaccine generates in order to trigger the person's immune response are enough to send them into terminal decline.

It may be necessary to assess very frail people before giving them the vaccine to see if the risk is too high. At the margins all medicine is a judgement call, and occasionally the wrong call will be made.

For 99% of the old and sick, vaccination will still be unquestionably the right choice as the risks will be tiny compared to the risk of dying from the virus

Ps happy birthday. This thread is one year old

[Little John]

Not all countries are following the UK and vaccinating the old and sick first. Some are vaccinating the working population first as they are the primary route of transmission. The choice is not always clear cut as to which strategy will save most lives in each country.

Having decided that the oldest and most frail should be vaccinated first in the UK, there are a small percentage of this group who are so frail that even the mild fever symptoms that the vaccine generates in order to trigger the person's immune response are enough to send them into terminal decline.

It may be necessary to assess very frail people before giving them the vaccine to see if the risk is too high. At the margins all medicine is a judgement call, and occasionally the wrong call will be made.

For 99% of the old and sick, vaccination will still be unquestionably the right choice as the risks will be tiny compared to the risk of dying from the virus

The average age of death of people who die of Covid19 or "with" Covid19 is 82.4. The average age of death of people who die of anything other than Covid19 is 81.6. Which leads to the perverse statistic that people who die of Covid19 have, on average, a longer lifespan than anyone else. Additionally, the Covid19 CFR for the over 80s is around 14%. Which is to say, 86% of the over 80s who contract Covid19 do not die of it. My Auntie Hilda, at 96, being a case in point. Though, it will probably knock the hell out of significantly more than that 14%.

However, I would lay bets several illnesses will knock the hell out of the over 80s if they get them, including influenza (CFR around 8% to 10%) and I would lay even more confident bets bets that people whose average age is 82.4 have got a significantly higher than 50% chance of dying of anything within any 12 month period.

We all have to die sometime.

[clv101]

... and I would lay even more confident bets bets that people whose average age is 82.4 have got a significantly higher than 50% chance of dying of anything within any 12 month period.

In the US (first table I found, UK will be a little longer), the life expectancy at 82 is +7.32 years male and +8.58 years female. They certainly don't have a 50% chance of dying in any 12 month period.

[Little John]

... and I would lay even more confident bets bets that people whose average age is 82.4 have got a significantly higher than 50% chance of dying of anything within any 12 month period.

In the US (first table I found, UK will be a little longer), the life expectancy at 82 is +7.32 years male and +8.58 years female. They certainly don't have a 50% chance of dying in any 12 month period.

Drivel.

What you have just written implies, entirely dishonestly, that the typical age of death is 89.32 and 90.2. You know full well that is horseshit..

Want to try again?

[clv101]

... and I would lay even more confident bets bets that people whose average age is 82.4 have got a significantly higher than 50% chance of dying of anything within any 12 month period.

In the US (first table I found, UK will be a little longer), the life expectancy at 82 is +7.32 years male and +8.58 years female. They certainly don't have a 50% chance of dying in any 12 month period.

Drivel.

What you have just written implies, entirely dishonestly, that the typical age of death is 89.32 and 90.2. You know full well that is horseshit..

Want to try again?

Come on, engage brain. ONCE you have reached the ripe old age of 82 in the US, yes, you can expect to get to ~90. Of course MOST Americans are doing well to even reach 82 in the first place. Life expectance isn't even that for a baby born today in the US, Someone born in the 1940's, even lower still.

[Little John]

(Line deleted, KN)



That, by the way, is form the UK governments on page.

Even they, laughably, call a less than 1 in 2 chance of attaining a given age a "life expectancy"

[clv101]

(Line deleted KN)


That, by the way, is form the UK governments on page.

Even they, laughably, call a less than 1 in 2 chance of attaining a given age a "life expectancy"

Yes - That chart illustrates just what I'm saying. Thanks.

[Little John]

I'll spell this out since you clearly lack the capacity to work it out for yourself.

The chance of someone who is, say, 20 years old making it through the next 7 years is not the same as the chance of someone who is, say, 80 making it through the next 7 years you (deleted KN).

[Catweazle]

Yes - That chart illustrates just what I'm saying. Thanks.

Don't bother, I've already explained it twice.

[clv101]

I'll spell this out since you clearly lack the capacity to work it out for yourself.

The chance of someone who is, say, 20 years old making it through the next 7 years is not the same as the chance of someone who is, say, 80 making it through the next 7 years.

Obviously, a 20 year old has an expectancy +57 years, whereas an 80 year old as an expectancy of +8 yrs. I don't see what's hard about this.

[Snail]

That makes it sound as if an 80 year old has a good chance reaching 88. But is that so?

A quick calculation (or Google search ) shows an 80 year old has a 30% chance of reaching 90.

So 2/3rds of 80 y/os will die before 90 upon reaching 80 (cross out)*. or rather, if you reach 80 years old you have a 70% chance of dying before reaching 90.
Game, Set and Match.

Which tallies roughly with the graph.

Thus, someone who reaches 82 is likely not to reach 90. But wait...

Which is common sense?

*Decrease a little for 88.

If I'm wrong . Talk about doubting yourself!

I don't think I am. maybe I am?

The extra life expectancy is different than the odds of an 80 year old reaching 85 or 90.
Eg. Goto death-clock.org and putting in age of 80 and male. What's the death age?

Edit 11: that death-clock is shit.
Edit 12: I wonder if the confusion is mixing up life expectancy from birth with life expectancy, or rather death odds, of a person from a certain age.
Edit 13: yes, this extra life expectancy is taking this into account. the odds of dying at a certain age by a certain age is different. these odds Increase with age span.
Edit 14: look here: http://opposingviews.com/health/what-ar ... n-tell-you
A super healthy 75 yo. Male has only a 67% chance of living another ten years. Obviously, that will be lower for a 80 year old surviving to 88.
Other edits: tidying up.

Edit 15: the extra life expectancy corresponds to the cohort life expectancy. See also modal measure: most common age at death.
Edit 16: added some doubt.

I actually fell asleep during an edit.

I guess I'm not gonna make moderator

[clv101]

... and I would lay even more confident bets bets that people whose average age is 82.4 have got a significantly higher than 50% chance of dying of anything within any 12 month period.

In the US (first table I found, UK will be a little longer), the life expectancy at 82 is +7.32 years male and +8.58 years female. They certainly don't have a 50% chance of dying in any 12 month period.

This is a really important point LJ.

If you believe, "lay even more confident bets" that someone aged 82.4 has a significantly higher than 50% chance of dying of anything within 12 months, then pretty much all your covid nonsense these past months makes perfect sense! Absolutely the public heath response would have been dramatically disproportionate, and we certainly shouldn't have bothered with lockdowns. I'd agree! Unfortunately you are very mistaken. To have a 50% chance of dying in 12 months you need to be 113!! You're basing your covid analysis on the nonsense than an 82 year old has the same prospects as an 113 year old.

[BritDownUnder]

Here's a quick guide to the actuarial tables from myself - a failed Actuary.

Go to this link and download the National Life Tables spreadsheet at the bottom of the page. (511KB xlsx).
Goto 2017-2019 tab on the spreadsheet. It lists Males data and Females data.
You can see a list of ages 0 to 100.
Ignore column mx.
Column qx (x being age at last birthday) is probability of death before next birthday at age last birthday x.
Column lx is a 'cohort' of 100,000 people who were born in the same year and how many of them are still alive at age x. Cohort is an actuarial term for a group of same aged people.
Column dx ignore. it's the number of people who will die each age x out of the 100,000 cohort.
Column ex is the number of years more you will live on average if you age x last birthday. It is the most 'interesting' column.
So aged 0 (i.e. at birth Males will expect to live 79.37 years).
At age 65 males will expect to 18.76 more years, i.e. die on average at 83.76 years old. So your life expectancy is 84 if you make it to age 65 without dying.
At age 80 males will live on average 8.47 years, i.e. die at 88.47 years old etc etc.

I am pretty sure that the chart above 'Chance of reaching age.." is based on these tables. At age 80 your age of death on average (life expectancy) is just under 89 as mentioned above.

[PS_RalphW]

What hasn't been discussed here is how much damage is done to the health and life expectancy of survivors of the virus. There has been few papers studying this, but anyone entering hospital will have suffered serious and probably permanent damage to their lungs, and possibly other organs as well. This will significantly reduce their remaining life expectancy. One study over 5 months found that 10% of discharged patients had since died, and 30% had been readmitted to hospital. This does not support LJ's assertion which is plain wrong, but the opposite - this virus reduces life expectancy by more than the headline death numbers imply.

There is anecdotal evidence that even mild symptoms can herald serious and probably permanent damage to the lungs in young and healthy people. If the virus mutates to allow reinfection, any second infection is likely to cause further permanent damage to the lungs.

Ps happy birthday. This thread is one year old

[kenneal - lagger]

This article is from a scientist who studies marine mammals and says that as we don't have the evolved ability to resist hypoxia that marine mammal do we should avoid covid. I'll take her advice and lockdown.