New coronavirus in/from China

[Little John]

The Guardian is reporting that winter rates off common colds is down by 75%, influenza by 95%, and other respiratory and hand hygine linked infections are also lower than normal. So a small silver lining from the lockdowns.

Hospital in Surrey bringing in emergency storage after their morgue is full.

More hysterical, fearmongering bullshit

The death rates this year, whilst a bit above the annual average, are within the normal distribution when compared to deaths per million over the last half century.

Meanwhile, some actual facts. This time from Canada. But, entirely comparable to the UK.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/LF4OwT8K ... JN43w-g-uo

[Catweazle]

I'm curious LJ, how do you distinguish "Actual Facts" from "Fearmongering Bullshit" ?

I assume there must be a rigorous, logical method, which I'm keen to learn.

[Little John]

Logic. Data.

[Little John]

Some more of that data I was mentioning:

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publicatio ... GHZNKoC8Uw

If you are wondering why we have an apparent crisis in our hospitals in relation to Covid19 (spoiler alert, a similar "crisis" has been experienced for most of the previous 10 years):

In 1974 we had a total of 400,000 beds available in the NHS.

In 1988 we had 299,000

In 2019 it was 141,000.

In other words, the total number of NHS hospital beds in England has more than halved over the past 30 years, from around 299,000 in 1987/88 to 141,000 in 2018/9, while the number of patients treated has increased significantly.

So, F--k knows what the percentage drop is per million people. But, it will be significantly higher still.

[PS_RalphW]

The long term reduction in the number of physical beds in the NHS is well known. That the NHS suffers stress every recent winter also. Few on this forum would deny that nursing staff are under paid and junior doctors overworked. More and more of the NHS is being hived off to the private sector.

If this pandemic had happened in 1974 then there would have been more beds to put the sick in, and maybe more nurses to sit at the bedsides, but many more patients would have died and more quickly as the modern ICU beds did not exist, or the widespread availability of oxygen

Without the NHS as we have it today the CFR in the UK would be 2 or 3 times higher, and the average age of death much lower. If the current lockdown does not work we will be seeing the higher CFR in the coming weeks.

Already oxygen is being rationed at one Surrey hospital

[Little John]

The long term reduction in the number of physical beds in the NHS is well known. That the NHS suffers stress every recent winter also. Few on this forum would deny that nursing staff are under paid and junior doctors overworked. More and more of the NHS is being hived off to the private sector.

If this pandemic had happened in 1974 then there would have been more beds to put the sick in, and maybe more nurses to sit at the bedsides, but many more patients would have died and more quickly as the modern ICU beds did not exist, or the widespread availability of oxygen

Without the NHS as we have it today the CFR in the UK would be 2 or 3 times higher, and the average age of death much lower. If the current lockdown does not work we will be seeing the higher CFR in the coming weeks.

Already oxygen is being rationed at one Surrey hospital

You are making shit up again. There are plenty of countries in the world with significantly varying health care provision right now, but who death rates are broadly similar and, in some cases, better than the UK's

In fact that's a funny old thing by itself isn't it. Namely, that the two countries with the most draconian anti libertarian drives seem to have (a) cancelled flu for this year and (b) have massively more cases of Covi19 per million than any other country in the world. Yeah., proper funny that.

I am sure you'll make some more bullshit up now. Trouble is, you ran out of even remotely plausible bullshit some time ago.

[kenneal - lagger]

................ Namely, that the two countries with the most draconian anti libertarian drives seem to have (a) cancelled flu for this year and (b) have massively more cases of Covi19 per million than any other country in the world. .......................

Could that be because those two countries have the a couple of the highest obesity rates in the world?

[Catweazle]

Trouble is, you ran out of even remotely plausible bullshit some time ago.

This board will never run out of bullshit, as long as you remain.

Re: the flu numbers, I know this has been pointed out numerous times, but it clearly needs repeating: The measures put in place to cut the transmission of infectious disease have cut the transmission of infectious disease.

The excess death figures are out, the highest excess death numbers since WW2:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55631693

There were close to 697,000 deaths in the UK in 2020 - nearly 91,000 more than would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.

But that isn't the whole picture, population has grown and the population has aged. When those factors are taken into consideration it's the highest excess deaths since the mid 2000's. Simply, Covid has undone 10+ years worth of progress, despite our best efforts to contain it.

There is a good analysis at the bottom of the article I linked above, which I paraphrased.

[Catweazle]

I'll add, because it's often "forgotten", that experts agree that the numbers would have been much, much worse without the extremely severe measures taken to control the spread of Covid19.

[Little John]

I'll add, because it's often "forgotten", that experts agree that the numbers would have been much, much worse without the extremely severe measures taken to control the spread of Covid19.

Nope. That is demonstrable bollocks. It is demonstrable by simply looking at the numbers for various countries with wildly different levels of lock-downs.

[Catweazle]

I'll add, because it's often "forgotten", that experts agree that the numbers would have been much, much worse without the extremely severe measures taken to control the spread of Covid19.

Nope. That is demonstrable bollocks. It is demonstrable by simply looking at the numbers for various countries with wildly different levels of lock-downs.

Like Sweden ?

[Catweazle]

I'll add, because it's often "forgotten", that experts agree that the numbers would have been much, much worse without the extremely severe measures taken to control the spread of Covid19.

Nope. That is demonstrable bollocks. It is demonstrable by simply looking at the numbers for various countries with wildly different levels of lock-downs.

Would you care to explain how the huge number of excess deaths fits in with your theories that "there are no excess deaths", "less deaths that previous years", " no second wave because you can only die once", etc., etc..

[Little John]

Trouble is, you ran out of even remotely plausible bullshit some time ago.

This board will never run out of bullshit, as long as you remain.

Re: the flu numbers, I know this has been pointed out numerous times, but it clearly needs repeating: The measures put in place to cut the transmission of infectious disease have cut the transmission of infectious disease.

The excess death figures are out, the highest excess death numbers since WW2:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55631693

There were close to 697,000 deaths in the UK in 2020 - nearly 91,000 more than would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.

But that isn't the whole picture, population has grown and the population has aged. When those factors are taken into consideration it's the highest excess deaths since the mid 2000's. Simply, Covid has undone 10+ years worth of progress, despite our best efforts to contain it.

There is a good analysis at the bottom of the article I linked above, which I paraphrased.

So, the headline of "largest number of excess dead since WW2 is bullshit since it means nothing in the absence of population growth and, when that growth is factored in, it is only highest in the last 10 years or so.

Remind me, why don't you, of the Great Lockdown of the mid 2000's? Remember that?

Yeah... me neither

[Catweazle]

Trouble is, you ran out of even remotely plausible bullshit some time ago.

This board will never run out of bullshit, as long as you remain.

Re: the flu numbers, I know this has been pointed out numerous times, but it clearly needs repeating: The measures put in place to cut the transmission of infectious disease have cut the transmission of infectious disease.

The excess death figures are out, the highest excess death numbers since WW2:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55631693

There were close to 697,000 deaths in the UK in 2020 - nearly 91,000 more than would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.

But that isn't the whole picture, population has grown and the population has aged. When those factors are taken into consideration it's the highest excess deaths since the mid 2000's. Simply, Covid has undone 10+ years worth of progress, despite our best efforts to contain it.

There is a good analysis at the bottom of the article I linked above, which I paraphrased.

So, the headline of "largest number of dead since WW2 is bullshit then since it means nothing in the absence of population growth and, when that growth is factored in, it is only highest in the last 10 years.

Remind me, why don't you, of the Great Lockdown of the mid 2000's?

You'll note that to represent the whole picture, not just cherry picking paragraphs and posting fictitious graphs, I explained the circumstances and linked to the page which contains the analysis.

Obviously there was no lockdown in the 2000's, because there was no comparable pandemic. You constantly miss the most obvious point, despite repeated efforts to explain it to you, the figures we are seeing now are despite the lockdown and would have been much, much higher had the lockdowns not taken place. Experts, yes, actual experts with actual experience in a relevant field are mostly in agreement on this.

The fact that you, and a whole host of nutters, cite a video from a small-town news station interview with a solitary GP as "proof" that Covid19 is a hoax is a measure of just how desperate you are. Graphs you post are inaccurate, with no source link, probably fabricated by someone with their own misinformation agenda.

Sadly, you're losing all credibility here. It's a shame because, like RGR before you, I value a contrary opinion to the groupthink.

Post some solid facts, with links to reliable sources, and rejoin sensible debate.

[Catweazle]

The post I was quoting from changed whilst I was writing. The original is possibly one of the most ironic I have seen here.

https://ibb.co/0ryxbVw