2020s will be dire but after that a new age awaits!!!

[kenneal - lagger]

According to this article the 2020s will be fraught with conflict and lower wages for the middle and working classes but after that a new technology, like fusion perhaps, will see a new age dawn and mankind will be all sweetness and light again. It's all to do with cycles apparently as history repeats itself.

From my reading of history, mankind has indeed lived in cycles with civilisations coming and going as they exhaust resources in one area and then another springs up in another area using those new resources to replace the dead one. Our current civilisation, however, is a global one that has scoured the earth for resources denuding it as it goes. The only area left that hasn't been denuded is Antarctica and possibly Greenland, areas currently under a mile of ice. So until those areas of ice melt we won't have a new area of land to exploit for minerals. That doesn't bode well for the human race once our current civilisation finally collapses.

Unless someone comes up with a technology which can convert basic common chemicals into complex materials and do it at ambient temperature and pressure as nature does we will not have the raw materials and energy to lift mankind out of a primitive metal age in the near future. That primitive metal age will involve the reuse of the vast amounts of scrap metal that will be left lying around after the coming collapse. That use of metal will be limited by the amount of fuel available and that will be limited by the number of trees which get a chance to regrow.

[careful_eugene]

Just to add another layer of pessimism, lets say a new technology that was able to deliver cheap and clean energy was discovered and developed. I don't believe for 1 minute that it would be shared for the benefit of all, access would be controlled and prices for it's use would be high, a few groups would get richer whilst the rest of us have to work a bit harder just to stay still.

[Catweazle]

A new, enormous source of clean energy would go a very long way to ensuring our supply of engineering materials and food needs.

For example, Aluminium, Titanium and Silicon are all very common. They have many uses, but need a lot of energy to refine. If you combine these three with de-salinated seawater you can build a hell of a lot of greenhouses and hydroponic farms.

I doubt it will happen though, so I'm hoovering up used greenhouses wherever I can find them.

[BritDownUnder]

I am pretty sure that Aluminium, Silicon and Titanium all require carbon in their extraction either as a chemical reducing agent or as electrodes in electrolytic reduction. The carbon used in these processes could be recycled I suppose and this is how things will probably go. Carbon to CO2 to CH4 and then back to carbon with a suitable energy input. I agree with you about the energy required but not sure about how iron and steel can be replaced in all uses. I think steel is a lot easier to weld than those other three which I think are a lot more reactive with air than iron. A lot more energy falls on the earth as solar radiation than is used so there is a start.

I suppose you are collecting greenhouses for gardening and its a good idea. I think the UK will benefit from more greenhouses especially on a commercial scale.

There is an ongoing project in Australia with a large greenhouse that uses salt water.

[adam2]

Just to add another layer of pessimism, lets say a new technology that was able to deliver cheap and clean energy was discovered and developed. I don't believe for 1 minute that it would be shared for the benefit of all, access would be controlled and prices for it's use would be high, a few groups would get richer whilst the rest of us have to work a bit harder just to stay still.

Not certain that I agree.
Electricity produced in bulk from cheap and abundant coal WAS a new and cheap fuel, and clean at the point of use. The widespread use of electricity for lighting, and then a bit later for machinery WAS a benifit to almost everyone. It was available in all but remote areas, to anyone who could pay the modest price. I remember the good old days of "a penny a unit, and the more you want the better" And that was an OLD penny a unit !
In the very early days, electricity was hugely expensive, but prices fell year on year as ever larger power stations were built, and high voltage, 3 phase AC transmission displaced local production of DC.
The large scale production of high voltage, 3 phase electricity for powering machinery, rather than just street lighting or house lighting, started at the Neptune Bank power station on Tyneside. Within a few years growing demand and ever larger and more efficient power stations rendered the original power station obsolete.
Electric power greatly improved working conditions in factories, even those without electricity at home still gained from more affordable mass produced goods.

Natural gas was cheap and available to almost everyone, and leaving aside present day concerns about depletion and climate change, the widespread adoption of cheap gas was arguably a good thing. The amount of dirt, mess, time and trouble innvolved in a coal fire was very considerable if compared to a gas fire.

These days electricity from wind and solar is clean and is becoming cheaper than coal or nuclear. I am not aware of any way in which access is being restricted to the elite.