New coronavirus in/from China

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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

careful_eugene wrote:Meanwhile, the Tory government has been doing what it does best by handing out profitable PPE contracts to their mates with little or no oversight. https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/statu ... 2145177600
Under NORMAL CONDITIONS thorough checks on the quality and value of the goods should be made before spending public money. The degree of thoroughness should depend on the nature of the goods and the value of the order.

However recent conditions have not been normal, but could reasonably be considered as an emergency.
During an emergency the prompt supply of PPE and other goods is of great importance, and "short cuts" may have to be taken.
The subsequent discovery that the goods are of poor quality and unfit for use is most regrettable, but is an entirely foreseeable consequence of urgent purchasing, perhaps from previously unknown suppliers, during an emergency.

During EMERGENCY CONDITIONS prolonged investigations and enquiries will probably result in the supplier selling to someone else and British workers lacking crucial supplies.

If anyone involved in the purchasing decision is found to have accepted a bribe, or otherwise personally profited from the transaction, they should be prosecuted.

Otherwise, just accept it during an emergency.

I repeat my earlier statement that the UK needs a proper civil defence organisation.
This organisation to hold stocks of PPE and other crucial supplies.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Little John

Post by Little John »

So, back to those pesky facts....

Assuming Covid19 may be transmitted asymptomatically (for which there is no evidence as yet presented as far as I know but which I more than happy to be pointed to if such evidence if exists - more on that later), then the virus particles would be transmitted in something called "aerosols". Such aerosols are as small as 0.004mm. That is 4,000th of a single millimeter. Just let that sink in for a second.

Thus, a virus particle in an aerosol could conceivably pass through a cheap paper or cloth mask in a manner akin to a bee flying through a chicken wire fence. But, all of that is moot anyway since, given the above issue with aerosols, any mask must be fully airtight because such aerosols, being lighter than air, can float about for long periods and will drift wherever air flow pulls them. You know... round corners, into other rooms, round the edges of non airtight face-masks..... that kind of thing. Getting the picture yet?

To be precise, the kind of face-covering required to properly protect from virus aerosols is:

N99.5 A2P3 air-tight, face-fitted (clean shaven required) respirator including round the eye sockets and ideally with positive air pressure.

Minimum requirement.

Anything else is bollocks. It's as simple as that.

As for larger saliva droplets, which are large enough to be subject to gravity and so will typically only travel around 2 meters (social distancing....remember that?), they will only be in evidence if someone is symptomatic (you know.... coughing and sneezing in your direction) But, if someone is symptomatic, they should not even be out and about. Instead, they should be self isolating for 7 to 10 days.

However, as mentioned earlier, there is not even any clear evidence for asymptomatic transmission of this virus. And that is not for want of looking. Several studies have now been conducted to try and show large scale asymptomatic transmission of this virus and none of them have. Which is why you only ever get vague, hand-waving by the talking heads on the MSM about asymptomatic transmission. But, no actual data to back those assertions up.

This virus, in its current strain, is dangerous to the very old and frail or just the very frail. But that's it. The entire edifice of rationale on which the legally coerced muzzling of people in public spaces who are not elderly or frail and are in all ways either non-symptomatic or asymptomatic is bollocks from top to bottom.

This is not about safety. It is about compliance.
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Catweazle
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Post by Catweazle »

Little John wrote:So, back to those pesky facts....
Really ?
Little John wrote: Assuming Covid19 may be transmitted asymptomatically (for which there is no evidence as yet presented as far as I know
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2769235
Little John wrote:but which I more than happy to be pointed to if such evidence if exists - more on that later), then the virus particles would be transmitted in something called "aerosols". Such aerosols are as small as 0.004mm. That is 4,000th of a single millimeter. Just let that sink in for a second.
Actually that's 4 x 1000th of a mm, but that's not relevant, experts who have studied respiratory protection for decades explain: "The N95 filter indeed is physically around the 0.3 micron size. But that doesn’t mean it can only stop particles larger than that. The masks are actually best for particles either larger or smaller than that 0.3 micron threshold.

“N95 have the worst filtration efficiency for particles around 0.3,� Marr said. “If you’re smaller than that those are actually collected even better. It’s counterintuitive because masks do not work like sieving out larger particles. It’s not like pasta in a colander, and small ones don’t get through.�

N95 masks actually have that name because they are 95% efficient at stopping particles in their least efficient particle size range — in this case those around 0.3 microns.

Why do they work better for smaller ones? There are a number of factors at play, but here are two main ones noted by experts:

The first is something called “Brownian motion,� the name given to a physical phenomenon in which particles smaller than 0.3 microns move in an erratic, zig-zagging kind of motion. This motion greatly increases the chance they will be snared by the mask fibers.

Secondly, the N95 mask itself uses electrostatic absorption, meaning particles are drawn to the fiber and trapped, instead of just passing through.

“Although these particles are smaller than the pores, they can be pulled over by the charged fibers and get stuck,� said Professor Jiaxing Huang, a materials scientist at Northwestern University working to develop a new type of medical face mask. “When the charges are dissipated during usage or storage, the capability of stopping virus-sized particles diminishes. This is the main reason of not recommending the reuse of N95 masks.� https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/fact ... 343537002/
Little John wrote: Thus, a virus particle in an aerosol could conceivably pass through a cheap paper or cloth mask in a manner akin to a bee flying through a chicken wire fence.
Unlikely, see above.
Little John wrote: But, all of that is moot anyway since, given the above issue with aerosols, any mask must be fully airtight because such aerosols, being lighter than air, can float about for long periods and will drift wherever air flow pulls them. You know... round corners, into other rooms, round the edges of non airtight face-masks..... that kind of thing. Getting the picture yet?

To be precise, the kind of face-covering required to properly protect from virus aerosols is:

N99.5 A2P3 air-tight, face-fitted (clean shaven required) respirator including round the eye sockets and ideally with positive air pressure.

Minimum requirement.

Anything else is bollocks. It's as simple as that.
Your guidelines offer the highest possible protection, but less than perfect protection is still a benefit.
Little John wrote:As for larger saliva droplets, which are large enough to be subject to gravity and so will typically only travel around 2 meters (social distancing....remember that?), they will only be in evidence if someone is symptomatic (you know.... coughing and sneezing in your direction) But, if someone is symptomatic, they should not even be out and about. Instead, they should be self isolating for 7 to 10 days.
So people without symptoms never sneeze, cough, shout, sing ? Asymptomatic or, more accurately, pre-symptomatic transmission is real: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2769235 "Many individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection remained asymptomatic for a prolonged period, and viral load was similar to that in symptomatic patients; therefore, isolation of infected persons should be performed regardless of symptoms."
Little John wrote:This virus, in its current strain, is dangerous to the very old and frail or just the very frail. But that's it.
Nope. Once again you confuse "dangerous" with "fatal", it's dangerous to many demographics : https://www.healthcentral.com/article/l ... oronavirus .
Little John wrote:The entire edifice of rationale on which the legally coerced muzzling of people in public spaces who are not elderly or frail and are in all ways either non-symptomatic or asymptomatic is bollocks from top to bottom.

This is not about safety. It is about compliance.
Hmmmm.
Snail

Post by Snail »

Hospital admissions plummet.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... shows.html

Even with the very slight increase in cases and easing (mostly) of lockdown, admissions still fall.

638 people in hospital, 57 on ventilators. On august 5 just 21 were admitted.
Dr Ron Daniels, a critical care doctor at University Hospitals Birmingham, said he thought a resurgence in the number of people in hospitals was 'highly unlikely'.
He told the Express: 'The pubs have been open for over a month, people have been socially interacting heavily during that time and the natural history of this disease is that if you contract the virus and you're going to end up in hospital, you're pretty much in hospital within 15 days.'
Little John

Post by Little John »

Meanwhile, yet more evidence, as if it was now even needed, that an increases in positive tests does not correlate with hospitalisations and deaths, certainly for the under 70s.

To continue to support this bullshit now requires real commitment.

Image
Little John

Post by Little John »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... -0-6-video

Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s top epidemiologist on Covid-19, has said that several studies estimate the mortality rate of the novel coronavirus at 0.6%.
fuzzy
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Post by fuzzy »

Presumably that compares to the lung damage from wet cloth and paper microfibres that they won't document.
Snail

Post by Snail »

Auckland, new Zealand, goes into lockdown after 4 positive cases from the same family.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/ ... e/12547678

Beyond silliness.

They should all be retested just in case it's a false positive like St Mirren staff. If one has already had two tests, do a third. Or maybe the four people should be locked up, rather than 1.7 odd million. Just a suggestion.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

As far as I know, New Zealanders are quite happy with the way that their government are doing things and they would be totally gobsmacked by your comments, Snail. You, LJ and others with your point of view are, I think, in a small minority.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Snail

Post by Snail »

Come on! 4 people.

After they eliminate covid19 again, they should concentrate on flu which kills about 500 a year.

---

I've thought about my stance and even agonised over it (i moved in with my parents because of covid) but the response now seems vastly over the top to me.
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Post by fuzzy »

Snail wrote:Auckland, new Zealand, goes into lockdown after 4 positive cases from the same family.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/ ... e/12547678

Beyond silliness.

They should all be retested just in case it's a false positive like St Mirren staff. If one has already had two tests, do a third. Or maybe the four people should be locked up, rather than 1.7 odd million. Just a suggestion.
Yes it is is very severe, but their argument is that it should be zero on an island bubble with easy tracing - unless it's environmental. It enables them to give us interesting data such as this:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -outbreak/
Snail

Post by Snail »

Tbh I dont find that very interesting at all. I think we are seeing governments' justifying their initial panicked response: Sunk costs and all that. Or the emperors new clothes syndrome. https://thedisgruntleddemocrat.blogspot ... s.html?m=1
Possibly something sinister.


In Scotland the schools are back, and masses of children are being allowed out at lunchtime to buy their sausage rolls etc. Why? Isn't this bad from a disease-control point of view? The queue to get into Morrison is enormous.

I'm going to go back into observer mode for a while as I'm just winding myself up.
Little John

Post by Little John »

From a friend on social media:

The statistics tell us that the overwhelming majority of healthy people are not affected by Covid-19 in any meaningful way. In fact the statistics tell us that 4 out of 5 people who contract Covid-19 show no symptoms whatsoever.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m13 ... vIMeMivYKA

Here in the UK, the Office for National Statistics state that for the last 7 weeks flu is killing 5 times more people than Covid-19 and all deaths are now below the five year average.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... vIMeMivYKA

Against the above we need to weigh up the effect lockdown is having on the economy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... dv8vPnEm-g

On mental health

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53742 ... rnnz9LYHvQ

On the development of educational and social skills amongst children and young adults.

https://theconversation.com/why-childre ... bkGAGKwYFI

As well as the time bomb that has been unleashed by the lack of cancer screening.

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about- ... JRGDgjESJE
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Little John wrote:From a friend on social media:

The statistics tell us that the overwhelming majority of healthy people are not affected by Covid-19 in any meaningful way. In fact the statistics tell us that 4 out of 5 people who contract Covid-19 show no symptoms whatsoever. ................
That means that 12.8 million people will show symptoms, then about 10% of them might need hospitalisation which is 1.28 million people over a period of six months. So 210,000 people will be hospitalised every month with a typical stay of one month and how many of those will require ventilation? Then there is the recuperation time and the increasing numbers of people who are ending up with chronic heart, lung and other diseases. All within one year.
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Initiation
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Post by Initiation »

kenneal - lagger wrote: That means that 12.8 million people will show symptoms, then about 10% of them might need hospitalisation which is 1.28 million people over a period of six months. So 210,000 people will be hospitalised every month with a typical stay of one month and how many of those will require ventilation? .
Ignoring the fact that recognising the majority of people do not suffer serious symptoms does not mean you want to completely abandon every single measure, the total number of UK people that have been hospitalised since the start of the pandemic is currently given as 133,000
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

Imperial estimated, just based on antibodies that 3.4 million people have had Covid
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201893/ ... y-testing/

That is a maximum 3.9% hospitalisation rate cutting 1.28 million hospitalisations by 60%. It ignores any stuff about antibodies disappearing over time or t-cell immunity etc..

I have no government source for average hospital stay but some media quotes from May from Chris Whitty say the average stay was 8 days, or 16 if on a ventilator.

Notice how the word 'ventilator' is now hardly ever mentioned in the news? Ventilator use has consistently declined since April as it was realised better and less invasive treatments were available This graph is with data taken from the gov dashboard (to clarify it refers to only those patients whose admission was due to Covid19, not all hospital patients)
Image

Then there is the recuperation time and the increasing numbers of people who are ending up with chronic heart, lung and other diseases. All within one year
Are there any firm statistics on the number of those people who suffered serious lasting side effects or is this speculation. I'm not doubting there are no examples, but is it frequent? I've only seen specific examples and not statistics. Also what about all the people who have had no heart, lung or other disease treatment due to the lockdown? Or people who will have reduced life expectency due to poor economic outcomes?
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