New coronavirus in/from China

[Little John]

You have been lied to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWsyNB95ljY

[fuzzy]

Our case rate increases at a steady state of .5% per day:

https://covidly.com/graph?country=Unite ... dom&state=

It is never going to drop much lower, with millions per month transiting unrestricted through the UK, no quarantine for the Irish who have a higher case per capita than the UK etc..
With the zealous NHS adding batflu to every DC they can, the deaths are never going to report lower - unless the rest of the world gets rid of it, so that we indirectly benefit.

[Mark]

With the zealous NHS adding batflu to every DC they can

There's defo some truth here.
Can't understand why the NHS wants to do this ?
Shirley, they also want some element of normality to return ?
Then they can start to catch up on the backlog of other conditions...

Maybe the DC system needs reform ?
Primary/Secondary cause ?

[fuzzy]

To be fair, every UK report of c19 statistics say 'died with Covid', so they are fudging in clear sight.

[stumuz1]

The next couple of weeks will be interesting to ascertain whether Covid, accelerated deaths by a couple of months, that were going to happen anyway.

From the Teleg:

" Prof Sikora told the podcast deaths for June were already “below what you’d expect for the yearly average in the summer�.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -recorded/

So if June , July, August, death tolls are significantly below average, then can this undershoot be taken from the spike in April?

Here are the spreadsheets for the weekly deaths.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales

Can't believe I'm talking about deaths in such a cavalier fashion.

[Little John]

It's not cavalier. It is logical. Cold hard bullshit free logic is something in desperately short supply at the moment.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Exactly the same reasoning as the millenium bug. There was no large first wave because action was taken to prevent it. Doh!

[vtsnowedin]

Our case rate increases at a steady state of .5% per day:

https://covidly.com/graph?country=Unite ... dom&state=

It is never going to drop much lower, with millions per month transiting unrestricted through the UK, no quarantine for the Irish who have a higher case per capita than the UK etc..
With the zealous NHS adding batflu to every DC they can, the deaths are never going to report lower - unless the rest of the world gets rid of it, so that we indirectly benefit.

I call BS on the recovered line on that graph. Out of 248,000 cases that are still alive only 1255 have recovered?

[fuzzy]

Our case rate increases at a steady state of .5% per day:

https://covidly.com/graph?country=Unite ... dom&state=

It is never going to drop much lower, with millions per month transiting unrestricted through the UK, no quarantine for the Irish who have a higher case per capita than the UK etc..
With the zealous NHS adding batflu to every DC they can, the deaths are never going to report lower - unless the rest of the world gets rid of it, so that we indirectly benefit.

I call BS on the recovered line on that graph. Out of 248,000 cases that are still alive only 1255 have recovered?

All UK stats miss out recovered. They are saving them for when we lift lockdown to drop the active cases in a mega whitehall BS exercise - see here also:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[UndercoverElephant]

Exactly the same reasoning as the millenium bug. There was no large first wave because action was taken to prevent it. Doh!

Factually incorrect.

With the possible exception of out and out dictatorships who have full command and control economies and political systems, all countries have observed more or less the same curve of infection irrespective of measures taken. Or, at least, to any extent that they have diverged from one another, this is not particularly correlated with lock-down measures. Indeed, there are now plenty of example of countries that have employed significantly milder lock-downs and obtained a lower CFR than countries who have employed more draconian lock-downs.



There is no clear line relationship between lock-downs and CFR. You are making shit up again.

So you keep saying. Not sure if anybody is actually listening to you anymore.

[vtsnowedin]

Exactly the same reasoning as the millenium bug. There was no large first wave because action was taken to prevent it. Doh!

Factually incorrect.

With the possible exception of out and out dictatorships who have full command and control economies and political systems, all countries have observed more or less the same curve of infection irrespective of measures taken. Or, at least, to any extent that they have diverged from one another, this is not particularly correlated with lock-down measures. Indeed, there are now plenty of example of countries that have employed significantly milder lock-downs and obtained a lower CFR than countries who have employed more draconian lock-downs.



There is no clear line relationship between lock-downs and CFR. You are making shit up again.

So you keep saying. Not sure if anybody is actually listening to you anymore.

On what basis are you disagreeing with that graph and LJ's conclusion about it. I argue with LJ a lot but on this he has the truth on his side.

[Little John]

He's not disagreeing with it. He is simply trying to ignore it.

[Catweazle]

Swedens Covid19 deaths are 3 to 6 times higher than its nordic neighbours who locked down. This suggests that if they had locked down, their results would have been much better.

[Little John]

Swedens Covid19 deaths are 3 to 6 times higher than its nordic neighbours who locked down. This suggests that if they had locked down, their results would have been much better.

And less than the UK or Belgium per capita. What does that suggest?

Additionally, what do you suggest those other Nordic countries do now?

[Catweazle]

Swedens Covid19 deaths are 3 to 6 times higher than its nordic neighbours who locked down. This suggests that if they had locked down, their results would have been much better.

And less than the UK or Belgium per capita. What does that suggest?

Additionally, what do you suggest those other Nordic countries do now?

I don't know why the Nordic countries fared better than others, neither does anyone else, it's just one of the many things that people with genuine qualifications in the field don't know about Covid19.

What does seem clear though is that your comparison of statistics from a region that, for some reason, is not as badly affected by Covid19 as other regions with the stats from our region, to prove that lockdown has had no useful effect is flawed.

Here's a graph of Sweden and neighbours who locked down plus UK: