New coronavirus in/from China

[vtsnowedin]

As the world collectively dances its way to doomsday we see ever diminishing demand peaks.

I can go for lower and lower demand peaks. Good for the environment!

I would wonder what happened to the people that were expected to demand that oil. Did they find an alternative, that allowed them to progress into the better standard of living that oil had promised them or were they oppressed or even exterminated to reduce their demand for oil.

[Mark]

Coronavirus: WHO advises to wear masks in public areas:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52945210

The World Health Organization (WHO) has changed its advice on face masks, saying they should be worn in public where social distancing is not possible to help stop the spread of coronavirus.....

Face coverings are now mandatory on public transport in England
Are we all going to start wearing them elsewhere ?
My weekend trip to Tesco says not....

Also, note that Bolsonaro has followed Trump's lead on the WHO....
What do we think will be the implications of a weakened WHO ?
Less assistance for those countries that really need it ?

[vtsnowedin]

In the USA deaths have now dropped to below 1000 per day but new cases are going up. This is perhaps both due to opening up the economy and more testing being conducted. Locally Vermont has a spike in case numbers but not in deaths or hospitalization rates. It is such a small community that one keg party in the college town might explain most of the recent spike.
Even if this proceeds to more hospitalizations and deaths I think it has to be endured as continued or renewed lockdowns are not feasible.

[kenneal - lagger]

In the USA deaths have now dropped to below 1000 per day but new cases are going up. This is perhaps both due to opening up the economy and more testing being conducted. Locally Vermont has a spike in case numbers but not in deaths or hospitalization rates. It is such a small community that one keg party in the college town might explain most of the recent spike.
Even if this proceeds to more hospitalizations and deaths I think it has to be endured as continued or renewed lockdowns are not feasible.

Is the increase in cases and the drop in deaths due to younger people ignoring lockdown and safe distancing and catching the disease while older people keep out of the way?

[vtsnowedin]

In the USA deaths have now dropped to below 1000 per day but new cases are going up. This is perhaps both due to opening up the economy and more testing being conducted. Locally Vermont has a spike in case numbers but not in deaths or hospitalization rates. It is such a small community that one keg party in the college town might explain most of the recent spike.
Even if this proceeds to more hospitalizations and deaths I think it has to be endured as continued or renewed lockdowns are not feasible.

Is the increase in cases and the drop in deaths due to younger people ignoring lockdown and safe distancing and catching the disease while older people keep out of the way?

They are being vary careful to encourage older people with comorbidities to continue staying as safe as possible. Of course people of all ages are starting to end lockdowns and the young are less careful then older people. But the biggest factor is that they have finally ramped up testing to the point they are testing people that exhibit no symptoms with a few testing positive while asymptomatic. Yesterday Vermont tested 1580 people and found 12 new cases a 0.7% positive rate which might well be the error rate of the testing. The state hasn't had a death from Covid in 12 days. But the restrictions and economic harm continue unabated.

[Little John]

Probably a good time to repeat a few facts:

These facts are widely available and have been for at least a month and a half. They are the same for every country irrespective of what measures have been implemented in those countries. In other words, the only reason people are now ignorant of them is because they are lazy, stupid or have been so psychologically abused by their government that they are too scared to question the propaganda. Those facts are:

Based on the official known data drawn from several countries, the following people die of Covid 19:

0% of children between 0 and 9 years
0.2% of children between 10 and 19 years
0.22% of adults between 20 and 29
0.3% of adults between 30 and 39
0.4% of adults between 40 and 49
1.3% of adults between 50 and 59
3.6% of adults between the ages of 60 and 69
12.8% of adults between the ages of 70 and 79
20.2% of adults between the ages of 80 and 89

Additionally, to repeat, the above data is based on the case fatality rate (the number of people sick enough to have been picked up by the medical system and so appear on the stats). Given there will be a reservoir of unreported cases (which will not appear in the stats), the infection fatality rate is certain to be lower still for each age group. Possibly many times lower.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

Therefore, we might reasonably assume that the differing CFRs for different countries will be based on the varying degrees to which the very elderly and/or already very sick have been protected in those countries. But, irrespective, as time goes on, it is looking like the CFRs are not going to be that dissimilar whatever a country did.

[Little John]

In the USA deaths have now dropped to below 1000 per day but new cases are going up. This is perhaps both due to opening up the economy and more testing being conducted. Locally Vermont has a spike in case numbers but not in deaths or hospitalization rates. It is such a small community that one keg party in the college town might explain most of the recent spike.
Even if this proceeds to more hospitalizations and deaths I think it has to be endured as continued or renewed lockdowns are not feasible.

Is the increase in cases and the drop in deaths due to younger people ignoring lockdown and safe distancing and catching the disease while older people keep out of the way?

They are being vary careful to encourage older people with comorbidities to continue staying as safe as possible. Of course people of all ages are starting to end lockdowns and the young are less careful then older people. But the biggest factor is that they have finally ramped up testing to the point they are testing people that exhibit no symptoms with a few testing positive while asymptomatic. Yesterday Vermont tested 1580 people and found 12 new cases a 0.7% positive rate which might well be the error rate of the testing. The state hasn't had a death from Covid in 12 days. But the restrictions and economic harm continue unabated.

Yes

Indeed, an increase in IFR is irrelevant. It is an increase in CFR that is the only important variable. But, of course, the pro-lock-downers are grasping at any straw in the wind now including an increased IFR even if the CFR is not moving.

[UndercoverElephant]

Based on the official known data drawn from several countries, the following people die of Covid 19:

0% of children between 0 and 9 years
0.2% of children between 10 and 19 years
0.22% of adults between 20 and 29
0.3% of adults between 30 and 39
0.4% of adults between 40 and 49
1.3% of adults between 50 and 59
3.6% of adults between the ages of 60 and 69
12.8% of adults between the ages of 70 and 79
20.2% of adults between the ages of 80 and 89

It's not actually about the death rate:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-symptoms

It looks like this virus often turns into a chronic condition. It lasts for months, and we still don't know what the long-term effect is.

[Little John]

Based on the official known data drawn from several countries, the following people die of Covid 19:

0% of children between 0 and 9 years
0.2% of children between 10 and 19 years
0.22% of adults between 20 and 29
0.3% of adults between 30 and 39
0.4% of adults between 40 and 49
1.3% of adults between 50 and 59
3.6% of adults between the ages of 60 and 69
12.8% of adults between the ages of 70 and 79
20.2% of adults between the ages of 80 and 89

It's not actually about the death rate:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-symptoms

It looks like this virus often turns into a chronic condition. It lasts for months, and we still don't know what the long-term effect is.

Yeah... right.. of course it's not about the CFR now, is it......

Meanwhile, got any actual stats on the above? No, of course you haven't. Instead, you are relying on the anecdotes provided by that bastion of the Truth, the "Guardian"...

[UndercoverElephant]

Meanwhile, got any actual stats on the above? No, of course you haven't.

Of course not. The problem, as I have told you repeatedly, is that this is a new disease. How could anybody possibly have stats about the longer term effects? We just don't know what is going on with these cases, and we have literally no idea what the long-term consequences might be. We don't know whether these people are still ill with the virus (does it lurk and flare up again like Herpes?) or whether they are suffering from some sort of post-viral syndrome.

You seem to think that because we don't know (nobody has any actual stats), this can be ignored. It cannot. People will quite rightly err on the side of caution.

[fuzzy]

That's actually a reasonable detailed story. It's just nauseous that a story has to be about '4 women who are ill' why FFS? I'm pleased I don't fund the grauniad. I think UE is right that there is a lot of lingering effects with this one. Is that a bad thing? If most workers lose their slave instinct, it's easier for me.

[eatyourveg]

That's actually a reasonable detailed story. It's just nauseous that a story has to be about '4 women who are ill' why FFS? I'm pleased I don't fund the grauniad. I think UE is right that there is a lot of lingering effects with this one. Is that a bad thing? If most workers lose their slave instinct, it's easier for me.

Losing the slave instinct would be a laudable thing, but that would have to start by fundamentally altering the education system, and just about every other way in which humans choose to live. It is a choice but to unshackle oneself is a mighty undertaking - every single system looks to tie you in even tighter.

[Little John]

So the WHO are now admitting they were bullshitting and that asymptomatic spread of Covid 19 is actually very rare. I'm guess they are doing this now in order to cover their arse when Covid19 deaths do not spike following these mass protests.

[Snail]

Common sense should have told us that. Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, and not some sort of radiation strangeness emanating from peoples bodies.

I think china intentionally made it seem worse than it was, classic art of misdirection for economic warfare, aided and abetted by the WHO and their leader. A plausible scenario at least imo.

It's a fine line between opening the economy and keeping the hysteria going. Massive money in the vaccine, sunk costs by governments, egomaniacs and those who can't admit they were wrong, control freaks, bureaucrat's, major and minor politicians, herd-followers, lambs and wolves.

[Catweazle]

I'm not sure that smashing your customers buying power is a sensible strategy for a mega-manufacturer like China.