New coronavirus in/from China

[mikepepler]

I miss the old days, when this thread was filled with people posting and discussing useful information... Every time I dip back in now it seems to have gone up to a new level of arguing over opinions, when none of us have any meaningful influence over what actually happens.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Yeah, but the prep stage of hair clipper and bread flour sources has long passed. We were way ahead of the rest then. Still sharing practical tips like go to Aldi at 21.00 once every two months.

Which leaves us with recriminations here in our fast collapse bunkers of doom.

[kenneal - lagger]

I don't think that we've ever had any influence over what happens, Mike, but we might have been able to influence a few people in what they do to mitigate what happens by debating on just how good some mitigating options were.

This thread is just somewhere that a few people can come while in lockdown to blow off some steam. Some of the earlier pages contributed by the likes of Vortex wee useful to give some idea about the safety of going out or not before lockdown. Now it is just two or three sides shouting their opinions as if they were fact when we only have knowledge of how the disease behaves during a lockdown scenario. We have no idea how it might behave in LJ's "modified let rip" scenario although there is some evidence that given a high initial dose death rates could be higher and more extensive.

[Mr. Fox]

This doesn't appear to have been answered, so I'll dip in here...

Is there a consensus that people are at greater risk with a heavier/more frequent dose? Eg medical staff.

With regard to medical staff, while there does appear to be a general consensus that they are at greater risk, like many aspects of the prevailing narrative, it would appear that the facts do not support it.

The deaths of 119 NHS staff have been analysed by three leading clinicians. We present their findings here...


[The black dots represent cumulative daily deaths as reported by Public Health England and equivalent agencies of devolved nations and the red dots represent cumulative deaths of health and social care workers reported in the media.]

..the data does not clearly show that healthcare workers are dying at rates proportionately higher than other employed individuals or even the population as a whole.

[...]

..those working in the high risk specialties of anaesthesia and intensive care appear to be under-represented...

https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths- ... 71.article

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Given that the ONS have concluded this morning that the infections are only 'stable' despite the severe degree of lockdown still in place, it seems we can only risk random idiot teenagers gathering, and flagwaver VE day street parties.

The risk to medical staff has apparently now reduced, which suggests the lack of PPE was the problem.

[kenneal - lagger]

If the scale of that graph on the right hand side was twice the scale it would show that the death rate was higher. If it was half the scale in would show that the death rate was lower or am I missing something?

[vtsnowedin]

Why do you think the D2 number is higher in the US? I thought the average Brit. was carrying around as many extra stone as their US counterparts.

Nothing like what I saw in TX a few years ago... Current diabetes prevalence in the US is 10.5%.

It appears you have the facts on your side.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Why do you think the D2 number is higher in the US? I thought the average Brit. was carrying around as many extra stone as their US counterparts.

Nothing like what I saw in TX a few years ago... Current diabetes prevalence in the US is 10.5%.

It appears you have the facts on your side.

From my past globetrotting, you really can see it out on the streets. THere's hardly any obesity in Buenos Aires, a fair amount in the UK, and everywhere in the USA. But people soon accept what's considered normal in their locale.

Perhaps this is a major factor driving Covid fatalities in different regions. Not many elderly or obese in Africa.

[clv101]

If the scale of that graph on the right hand side was twice the scale it would show that the death rate was higher. If it was half the scale in would show that the death rate was lower or am I missing something?

All that chart shows is that the ratio of NHS to general population deaths has remained constant throughout the epidemic.

[Mark]

Nothing like what I saw in TX a few years ago... Current diabetes prevalence in the US is 10.5%.

It appears you have the facts on your side.

From my past globetrotting, you really can see it out on the streets. THere's hardly any obesity in Buenos Aires, a fair amount in the UK, and everywhere in the USA. But people soon accept what's considered normal in their locale.

Perhaps this is a major factor driving Covid fatalities in different regions. Not many elderly or obese in Africa.

A friend's wife works for the NHS at the sharp end.
Her observation is that 90%+ of those that die are obese.
In her (unscientific) opinion, it's far and away the #1 factor.

[vtsnowedin]

I think I have said this before but to pound a point.
I would not want to be an obese, diabetic, long time smoker,over seventy and living in a nursing home.
The whole world or at least the Covid-19 is out to get you and the odds are not in your favor.

[Little John]

I think I have said this before but to pound a point.
I would not want to be an obese, diabetic, long time smoker,over seventy and living in a nursing home.
The whole world or at least the Covid-19 is out to get you and the odds are not in your favor.

Smoking is an odd one. Or, at least, nicotine consumption is. A few proper scientific studies (not bullshit "estimates" pulled out of someone's arse) have now shown a highly significant negative correlation between nicotine consumption and (a) ending up in hospital with Covid 19 and (b) percentage of nicotine consumers who are in hospital with Covid 19 dying of it as compared to the percentage of non nicotine consumers in hospital dying of Covid 19. In short, fewer nicotine users getting it and, of those that do, fewer of them dying of it as compared to the rest of the population.

Nobody has any proper idea why. But, the numbers are the numbers.

[vtsnowedin]

I think I have said this before but to pound a point.
I would not want to be an obese, diabetic, long time smoker,over seventy and living in a nursing home.
The whole world or at least the Covid-19 is out to get you and the odds are not in your favor.

Smoking is an odd one. Or, at least, nicotine consumption is. A few proper scientific studies (not bullshit "estimates" pulled out of someone's arse) have now shown a highly significant negative correlation between nicotine consumption and (a) ending up in hospital with Covid 19 and (b) percentage of nicotine consumers who are in hospital with Covid 19 dying of it as compared to the percentage of non nicotine consumers in hospital dying of Covid 19. In short, fewer nicotine users getting it and, of those that do, fewer of them dying of it as compared to the rest of the population.

Nobody has any proper idea why. But, the numbers are the numbers.

Interesting. I would think just the loss of lung capacity of a smoker would be enough to do you in. Perhaps many of the longtime smokers have already checked out so can't die again.
Once again more research is needed.

[Potemkin Villager]

I miss the old days, when this thread was filled with people posting and discussing useful information... Every time I dip back in now it seems to have gone up to a new level of arguing over opinions, when none of us have any meaningful influence over what actually happens.

Yep several, (mostly high posting) folks underlying issues are reflected in the extremity of how desperate they are for their apparently uniquely correct view to prevail. I have learnt a huge amount from all the posts I read on this forum, particularly concerning why things generally are so banjaxed, but this is not always what the posters are primarily trying to express. Heaven help us all.

[vtsnowedin]

I miss the old days, when this thread was filled with people posting and discussing useful information... Every time I dip back in now it seems to have gone up to a new level of arguing over opinions, when none of us have any meaningful influence over what actually happens.

Yep several, (mostly high posting) folks underlying issues are reflected in the extremity of how desperate they are for their apparently uniquely correct view to prevail. I have learnt a huge amount from all the posts I read on this forum, particularly concerning why things generally are so banjaxed, but this is not always what the posters are primarily trying to express. Heaven help us all.

Hey I resemble that remark!!
I of course think my present position is valid and forward looking. Those that oppose my position also think they are correct but I am confident that as time goes by the increasing damage to the economy will pull the majority of people to my point of view. I can be patient and realize there is no winning the argument while the house is burning down.