New coronavirus in/from China

[Initiation]

I saw this list. I'm pro a quick rollback of the lockdown but, honestly, are people being deliberately thick? Do they need a list of prescribed instructions for their normal daily living? Just a few random responses.

4 year olds can go to school but university students who have paid for their tuition and the accommodation that they aren’t living in, can’t go back to university.

4 year olds don't often currently live hundreds of miles from their place of education. Many students require travelling on public transport to get there. Four year olds are generally less capable of being educated by teachers from home. An extra month of education at that early point in their lives is a significant portion of their overall learning.

I can sit in a park, but not tomorrow or Tuesday but by Wednesday that’ll be fine.

I could sit in the park on Monday 23rd of March, but the next day I couldn't. Did the risk change? No. The line has to be drawn somewhere. Or perhaps we shouldn't be allowed into the park ever again?

I can work all day with my colleagues but I can’t sit in their garden for a chat after work.

Why can I go to the supermarket with other people but can't go to the clothes shop?
Their stated aim is reduce unnecesary interaction and hence infections. In this context, working is important for the economy so has been judged necessary - sitting in the garden chatting, less so. Perhaps if we every single person stoped working and supermarkets closed we could use our 'interaction allowance' on going to the pub one final time.

I can now do unlimited exercise when quite frankly just doing an hour a day felt like I was some kind of fitness guru. I can think of lots of things that I would like to be unlimited but exercise definitely isn’t one of them.

I would like unlimited beer, or even money, perhaps the government can give me that? What is even the point being raised here? Get fitter?

I can drive to other destinations although which destinations is unclear. I was supposed to be in Brighton this weekend. Can I drive there? It’s hundreds of miles away but no one has said that’s wrong.

There is no limit so it's not wrong - do you need to be told if each thing you do is 'wrong'?. The rules still clearly prohbit visiting another household and hotels are closed to the public so your 500 mile day trip to Brighton is not really feasible.

The buses are still running past my house but I shouldn’t get on one. We should just let empty buses drive around so bus drivers aren’t doing nothing.

You shouldn't get a bus wherever possible. But if you need to us one, you can. What is difficult to understand? It says it very clearly in the guidance.

Our youngest children go back to school first because... they are notoriously good at not touching things they shouldn’t, maintain personal space at all times and never randomly lick you.

Children have an extremely low risk of getting ill so the consequence of them catching it is generall low.


There was critisim of the government for not treating the population like adults, and now the roadmap has been issued, people are saying 'oh what about if my mobile hairdresser wants to cut the hair of my window cleaner while up a ladder but wearing a face mask - is that allowed?'. To clarify, I don't agree with some/many aspects of the plan, but it is easy to see from the government's point of view, the answers to the questions raised.

H&S legislation in this country works by the government setting the framework and not by giving huge prescriptive lists of measures to 1000's of different industries. This principle works well.

[clv101]

I don't read a lot from actuaries.org.uk, but this is a useful contribution.

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-i ... word-makes

Often we read that covid mostly kills the old and already sick - the walking dead, and yet:

Few people outside the actuarial and medical professions appreciate how high your life expectancy can be even if you’re old and not in good health. A typical lay misunderstanding runs along the lines of ‘Life expectancy at birth is 80 years or so, so if you’re in your 80s you’ll die in the next couple of years’.

But actuaries have been reserving for and pricing normal annuities for many years, and many of us have also been doing so for impaired lives, helping them get better annuity rates. We can take the sort of ratebook or underwriting engine underlying much of the UK’s annuity business and consider what numbers we see for apparently unhealthy people.

Let’s consider diabetic obese male smokers as a reference group here. Not great role models, and if you read about an old diabetic obese male smoker dying from (with?) COVID-19 it feels almost intuitive to think ‘the carbs and fags got him’, not ‘the coronavirus got him’.

But the life expectancy of these non-athletes is more ‘athletic’ than you’d think. Even assuming no mortality improvements, to stack the game against them more, a 70-year old of diabetic obese male smoker has a life expectancy in the region of 8-9 years; an 80-year old has a life expectancy of 4-5 years. If we take away the diabetes and instead assume COPD, or a heart attack a few years ago, we get roughly the same results.

Yes, you say, but life expectancy is an average and there’s a lot of variation around that average. That’s true, of course, but the odds of our reference group surviving the year are good. Only around 1-in-20 of such 70-year olds, or 1-in-7 of such 80-year olds, would be expected to die within twelve months.

[vtsnowedin]

The question is how many of them are frightened enough of the virus to, say, stay away from cinemas and restaurants. And the answer is more than enough to totally screw the economy.

Yes that is the question but recent American and Italian evidence points toward it not being the industry destroying number many thought it would be.
And again restaurants and cinemas are not the foundation of the economy.
The base of the economy lies in providing your food ,clothing and housing along with all the supply lines that get the necessary material and labor to the point of use. If you can't go to the movies so what. If their is no food in the house you have a problem and if the roof leaks and it is raining you have two.
Let us disregard the amount of the economy that is spent on national defense. for the time being.

[fuzzy]

Do you know UE?

The fact that we are not told this number is part of the gov mishandling. There are ~2 million told officially by the NHS not to mix. The gov response to their starvation is that the moonies or someone will deliver you pasta and tins. If work is resuming, what is their position?

[Little John]

I don't read a lot from actuaries.org.uk, but this is a useful contribution.

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-i ... word-makes

Often we read that covid mostly kills the old and already sick - the walking dead, and yet:

Few people outside the actuarial and medical professions appreciate how high your life expectancy can be even if you’re old and not in good health. A typical lay misunderstanding runs along the lines of ‘Life expectancy at birth is 80 years or so, so if you’re in your 80s you’ll die in the next couple of years’.

But actuaries have been reserving for and pricing normal annuities for many years, and many of us have also been doing so for impaired lives, helping them get better annuity rates. We can take the sort of ratebook or underwriting engine underlying much of the UK’s annuity business and consider what numbers we see for apparently unhealthy people.

Let’s consider diabetic obese male smokers as a reference group here. Not great role models, and if you read about an old diabetic obese male smoker dying from (with?) COVID-19 it feels almost intuitive to think ‘the carbs and fags got him’, not ‘the coronavirus got him’.

But the life expectancy of these non-athletes is more ‘athletic’ than you’d think. Even assuming no mortality improvements, to stack the game against them more, a 70-year old of diabetic obese male smoker has a life expectancy in the region of 8-9 years; an 80-year old has a life expectancy of 4-5 years. If we take away the diabetes and instead assume COPD, or a heart attack a few years ago, we get roughly the same results.

Yes, you say, but life expectancy is an average and there’s a lot of variation around that average. That’s true, of course, but the odds of our reference group surviving the year are good. Only around 1-in-20 of such 70-year olds, or 1-in-7 of such 80-year olds, would be expected to die within twelve months.

Yeah...

Meanwhile, do you know how many people of what ages and comorbidities die of Covid 19?

[Little John]

Do you know UE?

The fact that we are not told this number is part of the gov mishandling. There are ~2 million told officially by the NHS not to mix. The gov response to their starvation is that the moonies or someone will deliver you pasta and tins. If work is resuming, what is their position?

It's not mishandling. It is deliberate misinformation.

[fuzzy]

Agreed. Notice that none of the journos on the daily dog and pony show have asked the gov this question?

[vtsnowedin]

Meanwhile, do you know how many people of what ages and comorbidities die of Covid 19?

Here are Vermont's age figures for comparison when you find some for the UK.
Cases confirmed 926 deaths 53 as of 5/11/2020
age 0 to 30 ......0
age 30-39...1
.............40-39 ..2
.............50-59 ..1
.............60-69...10
.............70-79...17
..............80+.....22

[Catweazle]

We're focusing on the headline "death" figures again. There are other serious, lasting effects, and probably some we don't know about yet.

A side note, do you know the age of the average UK farmer ? It's 59 yrs, and only 3% of UK farmers are under 35yrs old.

Average age of UK engineer ? 54yrs, and only 6% of students are studying an engineering subject.

So let's not write off the older people just yet.

[boisdevie]

We're focusing on the headline "death" figures again. There are other serious, lasting effects, and probably some we don't know about yet.

A side note, do you know the age of the average UK farmer ? It's 59 yrs, and only 3% of UK farmers are under 35yrs old.

Average age of UK engineer ? 54yrs, and only 6% of students are studying an engineering subject.

So let's not write off the older people just yet.

I'm 56 so I'm certainly not keen to write off myself. But I'm perfectly able to read statistics and understand that the risk of death to me is sod all.

[vtsnowedin]

It would be nice to focus on the serious lasting effects but no one has compiled any figures on that as yet. Confirmed case figures are suspect due to variations in testing and record keeping and hospitalization rates are also suspect due to variations of which patients are listed as Covid cases.
So at present death numbers are the hardest data set available as people are pretty sure if you are dead. Looking at those numbers you have to consider that they are a proxy for the other unknown numbers we currently don't have accurate data for.

[boisdevie]

It would be nice to focus on the serious lasting effects but no one has compiled any figures on that as yet. .

We may have figures for deaths from the virus but let's not forget the effect that the lockdown and the economic damage will have on the mental health of the nation. I suspect there will be lots of damage done in this regard but because it's hard to measure I don't expect the media will take much notice.

Disclaimer - I'm a listening volunteer with The Samaritans.

[vtsnowedin]

We may have figures for deaths from the virus but let's not forget the effect that the lockdown and the economic damage will have on the mental health of the nation. .

That never leaves my mind.

[Bedrock Barney]

We're focusing on the headline "death" figures again. There are other serious, lasting effects, and probably some we don't know about yet.

A side note, do you know the age of the average UK farmer ? It's 59 yrs, and only 3% of UK farmers are under 35yrs old.

Average age of UK engineer ? 54yrs, and only 6% of students are studying an engineering subject.

So let's not write off the older people just yet.

I'm 56 so I'm certainly not keen to write off myself. But I'm perfectly able to read statistics and understand that the risk of death to me is sod all.

53 here. From a risk perspective I am of the same mind. Rather then try to fend off a microscopic virus for the rest of my life (a futile aspiration), I have been doubling down on my own level of fitness and mental wellbeing. This includes increasing my exercise regime, improving my diet (it was already good), taking regular Vit D supplements (I was doing this intermittently anyway), reducing the amount of office work and making sure I am out in the fresh air as much as possible. I can control of all these things. I can't control a virus.

[kenneal - lagger]

..........The gov response to their starvation is that the moonies or someone will deliver you pasta and tins. If work is resuming, what is their position?

The government has given local authorities the money to organise food deliveries and West Berkshire Council at least is doing it very well. How do I know this? My daughter is one of the voluntary organisers. Work won't/can't resume so quickly that there will be a sudden dearth of volunteers.

She has now gone back to her day job of H & S in schools and she is not so happy with the government's performance there. She has not had much advice on how to get schools back up and running although it looks like a pretty impossible job without a massive new school building program to allow for social spacing.

I agree with Initiation's take on this. To organise or prescribe in detail the way we come out of this is pretty much impossible such is the complexity of different people's needs. The government has set out guide lines and we have to use our common sense to interpret how we fit in with our own needs.

It seems to me that a few people are deliberately being really dense because it allows them to take issue with a government with which they wish to take issue anyway.