New coronavirus in/from China

[Little John]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten ... ckdown-now

Writing in this magazine a month ago, I applauded the government’s stated aim of trying to follow the science in dealing with Covid. Such promises are easier made than kept. Following science means understanding science. It means engaging with rival interpretations of the limited data in order to tease out what is most important in what we don’t know. Instead, the government in the UK (and many other places) seems uninterested in alternative viewpoints. The chosen narrative – that lockdown has saved countless lives – has been doggedly followed by all spokespeople. No doubt is allowed. We have been seeing the groupthink response to a perceived external threat that Jonathan Haidt describes so lucidly in his excellent book on human moral thinking, The Righteous Mind.

It has now become a matter of faith that lockdown is vital. Not only is it believed to be causally responsible for 'flattening the curve', but it is feared that releasing it too soon may cause a second spike in cases and 'economic disaster' (presumably due to further huge numbers of deaths). On what evidence is this made?

Even if one could understand why lockdown was imposed, it very rapidly became apparent that it had not been thought through. Not in terms of the wider effects on society (which have yet to be counted) and not even in terms of the ways that the virus itself might behave. But at the start, there was hardly any evidence. Everyone was guessing. Now we have a world of evidence, from around the globe, and the case for starting to reverse lockdown is compelling. Here are ten reasons why I believe that it is wrong to continue with lockdown and why we should start to reverse it immediately and rapidly.

[Little John]

Real science.The Lancet is the journal of the medical profession: it doesn't publish "fake news" There's good reason to believe that lockdown was a pointless, panicked response to a greatly overestimated danger. At least for this strain of the virus for the vast majority of people .

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 7/fulltext

[clv101]

Real science.The Lancet is the journal of the medical profession: it doesn't publish "fake news" ...

From the editor of The Lancet last night:

richard Horton @richardhorton1 7:05 PM · May 9, 2020

Contrary to those who believe “the time isn’t right�, it’s important to document the fatal mishandling of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by government. There is prima facie evidence of government misconduct. Look at the evidence.

On Jan 30, WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, its highest level of alert. This should have been a wake-up call to every government in the world. What did Boris Johnson do?

The next day, Jan 31, Boris Johnson gave a speech announcing that the UK has now left the European Union. He spoke about “national renewal and change.� He did not mention WHO’s global warning of impending danger.

Then nothing for a whole month. On Feb 26, Johnson announced an Integrated Review of foreign policy, defence, security, and international development. He spoke about “the changing nature of threats we face.� He did not mention the pandemic making its way to and through the UK.

On Mar 2, he chaired a COBR meeting on coronavirus. He called CoV “a significant challenge.� He went on: “But we are well prepared.� On Mar 3, he announced his “action plan� to deal with the pandemic—hand-washing.

Later on Mar 3, he gave a press conference with the CSA/CMO in which he again said: “our country remains extremely well prepared.� Yet all 3 knew that Exercise Cygnus showed our preparedness “is currently not sufficient to cope with the extreme demands of a severe pandemic.�

What we had and have is a government and a regime of science policymaking that stood before the British people and deliberately misled them about the nature of the threat and our readiness to deal with it. Please tell me how this course of events is not criminal?

[fuzzy]

I don't think Richard Horton's opinion adds anything - he is bashing the gov as a remoaner. It is entirely remoaners that made 2020 a brexit transition year.

The real gov cockup was lockdown for peasants and 18+ million travellers unchecked.

[stumuz1]

. Please tell me how this course of events is not criminal?

Quite simply Dickie.

To commit a crime, the crime must be prescribed, i.e written down in advance. This stops people like CLV from taking behaviour of reasonable people and calling them criminal. It has been this way since Aristotle. It is also an essential bulwark against totalitarianism.

If you look at the death stats for Europe, not the chopped and shaped data to suit the subjective argument, but the objective 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths worldwide per one million population as of May 10, 2020, by country stats'

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/

You will see we are not the highest in Europe, and remarkably, there is not a huge difference in the death rates between European countries.

[Catweazle]

The case against lockdown is starting to look persuasive, as hindsight often does, but I have a couple of questions that perhaps someone can help with.

Is hospital care actually saving peoples lives or leading to better outcomes ? Or, is the die cast when you catch CV19 ?

If hospital care is actually helping then stretching the infection curve by lockdown must surely affect the total mortality / disability effects, by allowing people to get treatment.

Does a better outcome for hospitalised people make a nonsense of the arguments that if we unlocked only 0.5% of the population will die ? Or would it lead to many more people expiring or suffering life-changing disabilities, but simply in their homes ?

Does the lockdown mean that people who are getting infected are being hit with a smaller initial viral load, because it's "seeping out" rather than being "in your face" on the tube network for example ? If so, does this also make a nonsense of the extrapolation of the current damage rate to the whole population ?

Any ideas ?

[fuzzy]

My ideas are:

Most people are asymptomatic/mild because of genetics and low inoculation. It is widespread in the UK. Catching a gentle brush with it carries a risk, but is the only logical outcome. The lockdown will have helped with this by allowing milder infections.

The lockdown has helped mainly cities, where people would have received high doses and dropped like doctors on sick pay.

It's hard to know who benefits from medicine? Patients between moderate and critical? If you gave oxygen cylinders at home to everyone who asked, you probably would have saved more and allowed hospitals to continue with no cross infection and billions £s saved in medical gravy.

The same issue of control we see in all gov. Probably 2/3 the drugs and treatments could be taken away from the medical gurus and sold to the public generically. But, if doctors couldn't go skiing, how would we get new plagues?

Have they bothered to check if it is widespread? You could check air and surfaces in public places for virus. No one has told us this result - why is that?

Serology results have not been announced - except to try and claim it's not widespread. If people do not have a moderate infection why would they have antibodies? We deserve some insight into that.

[vtsnowedin]

The case against lockdown is starting to look persuasive, as hindsight often does, but I have a couple of questions that perhaps someone can help with.

my opinion might not be much help but here it is.

Is hospital care actually saving peoples lives or leading to better outcomes ? Or, is the die cast when you catch CV19 ?

It is probably saving some young peoples lives but for older people may only stretch out the torture for patient and family.

If hospital care is actually helping then stretching the infection curve by lockdown must surely affect the total mortality / disability effects, by allowing people to get treatment.

Possibly you will have a slightly different volume under the flatter curve from the young people saved but it is also possible that when you add in deaths due to economic destruction the flatter curve will hold higher totals then the high peaked one.

Does a better outcome for hospitalised people make a nonsense of the arguments that if we unlocked only 0.5% of the population will die ? Or would it lead to many more people expiring or suffering life-changing disabilities, but simply in their homes ?

No, even effective hospital treatment only helps some of that 0.5% and if lock downs are lifted most would still go to hospital if sick until they became full. The lockdowns on the other hand are catastrophic to 50% or more of the population.

Does the lockdown mean that people who are getting infected are being hit with a smaller initial viral load, because it's "seeping out" rather than being "in your face" on the tube network for example ? If so, does this also make a nonsense of the extrapolation of the current damage rate to the whole population ?

Any ideas ?

Hard to say about that last one. It would seem to me that just one virus inside your body with no antibody ready to fight it would be enough to replicate inside you for that two week incubation period but perhaps load level does matter.
And the current damage rate will not last once lockdowns are lifted and will rise up to what is the diseases' natural state. But that will not be the unending exponential growth curve predicted by the alarmists.
Knowing that higher infection rate will happen does not change or diminish the necessity of ending the lockdowns. It is like knowing going to the dentist is going to hurt. you still have to go.

[kenneal - lagger]

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/0 ... s-m09.html

When all factors are taken into account, something in the area of one third of the work force is out of work.

And yet we all have food, transport and power. It just shows how much unnecessary "stuff" is going on and being produced in the world simply to make a few people extremely rich at the expense of the environment. Hopefully we can use this situation to reajust our priorities.

............. Health care was twenty percent of the economy .................?

That's a sad indictment of any country's economy let alone the supposedly richest country in the world. Do you not question why so many people in your country are spending so much on "health" care, VT? I suppose a large proportion of that is plastic/cosmetic surgery! But is that health care and is it necessary?

[kenneal - lagger]

The lockdown in the UK has prevented the scenes of people left untended in hospital corridors on trolleys as there were not enough beds available and left to die untended as we have seen in some other countries as their health systems and staff were overwhelmed.

I read in the Observer earlier that there is widespread confusion in cities in the UK, among the young it would seem, as to what message the government message on covid-19 really is. I am completely sure what the government's message is and that is "to stay at home". The only confusion that I see is in the media, and possibly social media. As I only do Facebook, and that seems fairly clear among my friends anyway, and follows the government line. I cannot comment on what the Twitteratti are literally twittering about.

Perhaps people should get their messages straight from the government. They do, after all, give a daily televised press briefing and they might get the correct idea which is "Stay at Home!" If you listen to twats twittering on twitter it's no wonder that you are confused I suppose. The arch birdbrain himself, Trump, uses twitter as his method of communication. That should warn people with any sense!!

[vtsnowedin]

............. Health care was twenty percent of the economy .................?

That's a sad indictment of any country's economy let alone the supposedly richest country in the world. Do you not question why so many people in your country are spending so much on "health" care, VT? I suppose a large proportion of that is plastic/cosmetic surgery! But is that health care and is it necessary?

No the trouble is not in plastic surgery. It is in insurance company overhead, malpractice insurance premiums and staff salaries.
Take a look at these and compare to what you pay your NHS staff.

Highest Paying Medical Specialties

Orthopedic Surgery: $464,500.
Cardiology (invasive): $461,364.
Cardiology (non-invasive): $447,143.
Gastroenterology: $441,421.
Urology: $424,091.
Hematology/Oncology: $396,000.
Dermatology: $370,952.
Radiology: $368,250

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

You Third World guys should go check out darn Commie Cuban healthcare - far better results for a fraction of the cost - and preventative medicine worldwide, rather than bankrupting of the partly-covered 'co-pay' terminal cases and insulin which costs more than min wage.

[Vitriol]

Perhaps people should get their messages straight from the government. They do, after all, give a daily televised press briefing and they might get the correct idea which is "Stay at Home!" If you listen to twats twittering on twitter it's no wonder that you are confused I suppose. The arch birdbrain himself, Trump, uses twitter as his method of communication. That should warn people with any sense!!

This message is due to change today. Whatever it is, it seems pretty clear now that the government's strategy hasn't worked very well, compared to other countries.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

I see from looking back at Page 392, and the change of thumbnail icon thingy, that Vortex2 has left.

[fuzzy]

The lockdown in the UK has prevented the scenes of people left untended in hospital corridors on trolleys as there were not enough beds available and left to die untended as we have seen in some other countries as their health systems and staff were overwhelmed.

I read in the Observer earlier that there is widespread confusion in cities in the UK, among the young it would seem, as to what message the government message on covid-19 really is. I am completely sure what the government's message is and that is "to stay at home". The only confusion that I see is in the media, and possibly social media. As I only do Facebook, and that seems fairly clear among my friends anyway, and follows the government line. I cannot comment on what the Twitteratti are literally twittering about.

Perhaps people should get their messages straight from the government. They do, after all, give a daily televised press briefing and they might get the correct idea which is "Stay at Home!" If you listen to twats twittering on twitter it's no wonder that you are confused I suppose. The arch birdbrain himself, Trump, uses twitter as his method of communication. That should warn people with any sense!!

Ken you seem to have taken over where V2 left off. You are a rich farmer in Berkshire - why should any inner city scroat show any interest?

I am curious why they have decided on 19:00 Sunday night - are they going to ban cash?