New coronavirus in/from China

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52557718

Chancellor Angela Merkel has said Germany's goal of slowing the spread of coronavirus has been achieved, so all shops can be reopened as lockdown restrictions are eased.

Bundesliga football has been given the green light to resume and schools will gradually reopen in the summer term.

Have Euro 2020 and the Olympics been cancelled for no good reason?

[clv101]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52557718

Chancellor Angela Merkel has said Germany's goal of slowing the spread of coronavirus has been achieved, so all shops can be reopened as lockdown restrictions are eased.

Bundesliga football has been given the green light to resume and schools will gradually reopen in the summer term.

Have Euro 2020 and the Olympics been cancelled for no good reason?

I guess that's what success looks like in a large European country. With a robust programme of testing, tracing and isolation, there's no reason they can't keep it under control now.

The political pressure for UK to unlock will be huge - but our community spread is still too high, and our test/trace/isolate protocol is poor.

[Vortex2]

I was hired to rework the UK software modelling the Chernobyl plumes ... I had to give up ... 1000s of lines of bad FORTRAN in huge files.

Was that the NAME model by any chance?

Rings a bell ... but it was a long time ago .. 1986.

Their software team (Physicists who taught themselves 'software' ... ha ha ha) was at Berkeley nuclear power station.

The tales that I could tell from when I was working in nuclear ...

[Vortex2]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52557718

Chancellor Angela Merkel has said Germany's goal of slowing the spread of coronavirus has been achieved, so all shops can be reopened as lockdown restrictions are eased.

Bundesliga football has been given the green light to resume and schools will gradually reopen in the summer term.

Have Euro 2020 and the Olympics been cancelled for no good reason?

I guess that's what success looks like in a large European country. With a robust programme of testing, tracing and isolation, there's no reason they can't keep it under control now.

The political pressure for UK to unlock will be huge - but our community spread is still too high, and our test/trace/isolate protocol is poor.

Hmm ..... The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases has warned the second and third waves of coronavirus is likely.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-05/G ... index.html

[Vortex2]

The head of Sweden's no-lockdown coronavirus plan said the country's heavy death toll 'came as a surprise'

A Ferguson clone ... is there a special factory turning these geniuses out?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

[fuzzy]

British fudge:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/cov ... -nonsense/

[mikepepler]

So, BoE thinks we're heading for the steepest drop in GDP for over 300 years. And I think that assumes that lockdown is relaxed over a 4-month period starting in June, that similar relaxation happens globally, and there's no second wave. A bit optimistic perhaps?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52566030

[Vortex2]

British fudge:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/cov ... -nonsense/

I'm tired of articles written by those who start off with an axe to grind.

Many seem to want to insist that "it's only the flu", "they would die anyway" etc.

Maybe these smart arses should visit a mass grave in Iran or Ecuador or nearer home an Italian ICU.

[fuzzy]

British fudge:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/cov ... -nonsense/

I'm tired of articles written by those who start off with an axe to grind.

Many seem to want to insist that "it's only the flu", "they would die anyway" etc.

Maybe these smart arses should visit a mass grave in Iran or Ecuador or nearer home an Italian ICU.

I marvel at your stamina

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.politicshome.com/news/artic ... day-speech

With a bit of luck my foraging courses might be able to restart

[Vortex2]

British fudge:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/cov ... -nonsense/

I'm tired of articles written by those who start off with an axe to grind.

Many seem to want to insist that "it's only the flu", "they would die anyway" etc.

Maybe these smart arses should visit a mass grave in Iran or Ecuador or nearer home an Italian ICU.

I marvel at your stamina

It's a fascinating technical/statistical challenge.

Also I need to get my head around The Truth to plan the next few years of my business & family life.

So far I haven't learned much about the virus and its future ... although it's clear that it is NOT something that you want to catch.

It is however also clear that the economy has been severely disrupted.

[vtsnowedin]

For the first time yesterday Vermont released their estimate of those recovered from Covid-19. Subtracting that 706 and the 52 deaths from cumulative cases ( 908) leaves the state with just 150 active cases with 6 in hospital with 20 hospitalized under investigation.
That number will now probably stay very constant as recoveries will mostly match daily new cases at 7 a day each.
NY Governor Cuomo reported yesterday that some 60% of new cases hospitalized were people sheltering at home casting doubt on the effectiveness of lockdown efforts.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

It's a fascinating technical/statistical challenge.

Still walking the dogs and occasionally doing the allotment here, so effectively distanced - not been to any shop since 12 March. Could sustain that for some time yet, but I suspect the coming 'easements' may reverse the progress and risk local outbreaks, which still remain undetectable for lack of testing, even now.

Some of the harder of thinking will take the possibly permitted hosehold picnics to mean family and friend BBQ parties, subathing to mean crowding on beaches rather than sat alone in the middle of a large expanse of grass, or otherwise kicking the arse out of the partial relaxation, driving to visit friends, whatever.

The 'confirmed cases' are still constrained by testing capacity, thus a meaningless trend. But we can see that the fatality trend (whatver the actual number) peaked some 14-21 days after voluntary then forced lockdowns began. That suggests to me that the number of infectious victims now (many sadly confined to care homes anyway) will be where the deaths can be projected to, in two weeks or so. So, early next week might be the optimum time to quickly hit the shops for doomstead resupply, ahead of further outbreaks / waves.

Highlighting of any overlooked flaws in that logic would be gratefully received...

[Vortex2]

It's a fascinating technical/statistical challenge.

Still walking the dogs and occasionally doing the allotment here, so effectively distanced - not been to any shop since 12 March. Could sustain that for some time yet, but I suspect the coming 'easements' may reverse the progress and risk local outbreaks, which still remain undetectable for lack of testing, even now.

Some of the harder of thinking will take the possibly permitted hosehold picnics to mean family and friend BBQ parties, subathing to mean crowding on beaches rather than sat alone in the middle of a large expanse of grass, or otherwise kicking the arse out of the partial relaxation, driving to visit friends, whatever.

The 'confirmed cases' are still constrained by testing capacity, thus a meaningless trend. But we can see that the fatality trend (whatver the actual number) peaked some 14-21 days after voluntary then forced lockdowns began. That suggests to me that the number of infectious victims now (many sadly confined to care homes anyway) will be where the deaths can be projected to, in two weeks or so. So, early next week might be the optimum time to quickly hit the shops for doomstead resupply, ahead of further outbreaks / waves.

Highlighting of any overlooked flaws in that logic would be gratefully received...

If there is a second wave, then we have around 26 days between lockdowns ... shoppnig time!

(Hokkaido island in Japan lifted their lockdown but had to reinstate it 26 days later)

If a second wave and maybe another lockdown come then any hope/joy/happiness/optimism will be squished out of society.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

If a second wave and maybe another lockdown come then any hope/joy/happiness/optimism will be squished out of society.

Only for those who don't plan for the worst but hope for the best. This will be a long haul - but nobody in the mainstream has really made that clear. Some honesty rather than spin would really help.

Good point about Japan. Shopping list compiled in aisle order and home-sewn filter pocketed facemask at the ready.