New coronavirus in/from China

[Vortex2]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country.
•

Early community spreading changes our knowledge of covid-19 epidemic.
•

This new case changes our understanding of the epidemic and modeling studies should adjust to this new data.

Err .. they found just ONE case ... statistically a bit dodgy ...

[clv101]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country.
•

Early community spreading changes our knowledge of covid-19 epidemic.
•

This new case changes our understanding of the epidemic and modeling studies should adjust to this new data.

Wow, that's interesting. The excess death curve doesn't lie though so it looks like it had a long, slow burn at the beginning.

[clv101]

Err .. they found just ONE case ... statistically a bit dodgy ...

A positive is a positive. The chance of false positives is exceedingly low.

Maybe he caught it from a box of imported fish?

[Vortex2]

Err .. they found just ONE case ... statistically a bit dodgy ...

A positive is a positive. The chance of false positives is exceedingly low.

Maybe he caught it from a box of imported fish?

I wouldn't dare write any sort of paper based on ONE case ... just sayin ...

[Vortex2]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country.
•

Early community spreading changes our knowledge of covid-19 epidemic.
•

This new case changes our understanding of the epidemic and modeling studies should adjust to this new data.

Wow, that's interesting. The excess death curve doesn't lie though so it looks like it had a long, slow burn at the beginning.

That's what exponential growth looks like.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country.
•

Early community spreading changes our knowledge of covid-19 epidemic.
•

This new case changes our understanding of the epidemic and modeling studies should adjust to this new data.

Err .. they found just ONE case ... statistically a bit dodgy ...

Why? In this situation, one confirmed case makes a big difference. This is exactly the sort of datum which overturns existing theories and forces scientists to come up with revised ones.

[Vortex2]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

Err .. they found just ONE case ... statistically a bit dodgy ...

Why? In this situation, one confirmed case makes a big difference. This is exactly the sort of datum which overturns existing theories and forces scientists to come up with revised ones.

I agree when looking for gravitational waves or neutrino interactions.

However in this case if they were so sure of their facts then I really do feel that they could have found more cases, or asked other countries to look for confirming evidence.

[vtsnowedin]

HMG data as at 4th April

As of 9am on 4 May, there have been 1,291,591 tests, with 85,186 tests on 3 May.

945,299 people have been tested, of whom 190,584 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 3 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 28,734 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 24,332

.
Hospital death rate daily 7-day average steadily falling,

Cases per day 7-day rolling average falling slowly.

Vorttex2, Do you have any data on the number of cases that are now recovered and no longer considered infectious. To me that number should be becoming quite relevant but I have seen no official accounting of it anywhere. I have seen fourteen days between infection and finished one way or the other but even if it was thirty days all those infected (or confirmed) in March should now be subtracted form the active case figures.
Taken to extremes if you had a million cumulative cases but only 500 still active the 500 number is more important then the million.

[fuzzy]

HMG data as at 4th April

As of 9am on 4 May, there have been 1,291,591 tests, with 85,186 tests on 3 May.

945,299 people have been tested, of whom 190,584 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 3 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 28,734 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 24,332

.
Hospital death rate daily 7-day average steadily falling,

Cases per day 7-day rolling average falling slowly.

Vorttex2, Do you have any data on the number of cases that are now recovered and no longer considered infectious. To me that number should be becoming quite relevant but I have seen no official accounting of it anywhere. I have seen fourteen days between infection and finished one way or the other but even if it was thirty days all those infected (or confirmed) in March should now be subtracted form the active case figures.
Taken to extremes if you had a million cumulative cases but only 500 still active the 500 number is more important then the million.

covidly lists this. All the countries are completely varied as I suppose their reporting methods vary. Nice graphs at the right of each row.

https://covidly.com/

[vtsnowedin]

HMG data as at 4th April
.
Hospital death rate daily 7-day average steadily falling,

Cases per day 7-day rolling average falling slowly.

Vorttex2, Do you have any data on the number of cases that are now recovered and no longer considered infectious. To me that number should be becoming quite relevant but I have seen no official accounting of it anywhere. I have seen fourteen days between infection and finished one way or the other but even if it was thirty days all those infected (or confirmed) in March should now be subtracted form the active case figures.
Taken to extremes if you had a million cumulative cases but only 500 still active the 500 number is more important then the million.

covidly lists this. All the countries are completely varied as I suppose their reporting methods vary. Nice graphs at the right of each row.

https://covidly.com/

Thanks for the link. I can't say I believe anything about recoveries I see there. Just 900 in the UK after 60 days? Some foot dragging going on there. The USA numbers also look to be off by maybe half. Maybe they will get better in time.

[clv101]

What's the US doing?

Interesting article on the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model that's getting a lot of airtime:
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 ... e-pandemic

Then this slide deck from CDC, ramping the daily death rate into June:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper ... pdf#page=1

[Vortex2]

I don't trust the models any more.

I simply know that having just 5% or so of people exposed to the virus in a modern society with good healthcare has caused 40k deaths in a population of 67M and economic mayhem.

On top of that the infection attacks the body in nasty ways, so we should expect long term issues in many of the recovered.

All the chit chat about Sweden or lock-down or masks is irrelevant ... mass graves exist around the world and many medical staff have died .. and we have a very long way to go.

As Dr Campbell says, we shall find out soon enough in the US how a lock-down relaxation will work out : he expects a major increase in US deaths in a few weeks time, possibly enough to overwhelm their health care system.

I hope he is wrong. We shall find out soon enough.

If the US situation does blow up again then all those sunbathing in parks and laughing at the police might need to reevaluate their position.

[Little John]

I don't trust the models any more.

I simply know that having just 5% or so of people exposed to the virus in a modern society with good healthcare has caused 40k deaths in a population of 67M and economic mayhem.

On top of that the infection attacks the body in nasty ways, so we should expect long term issues in many of the recovered.

All the chit chat about Sweden or lock-down or masks is irrelevant ... mass graves exist around the world and many medical staff have died .. and we have a very long way to go.

As Dr Campbell says, we shall find out soon enough in the US how a lock-down relaxation will work out : he expects a major increase in US deaths in a few weeks time, possibly enough to overwhelm their health care system.

I hope he is wrong. We shall find out soon enough.

If the US situation does blow up again then all those sunbathing in parks and laughing at the police might need to reevaluate their position.

The numbers on who dies of this strain of the virus are now well known. It is overwhelmingly the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Why do you keep insinuating, without presenting any actual evidence in support of that insinuation, that this virus is killing vast swathes of the young and healthy when you know full well it is not.

As for the number of people who have died both here and in the US, they have been the elderly and those with underlying conditions.

Quelle Surprise

And the reason they have been dying in such relatively high numbers is because both the USA and UK political class are so stupendously f***ing useless they can't even do a full lock-down properly, never mind an intelligently targeted partial one.

[UndercoverElephant]

Err .. they found just ONE case ... statistically a bit dodgy ...

Why? In this situation, one confirmed case makes a big difference. This is exactly the sort of datum which overturns existing theories and forces scientists to come up with revised ones.

I agree when looking for gravitational waves or neutrino interactions.

However in this case if they were so sure of their facts then I really do feel that they could have found more cases, or asked other countries to look for confirming evidence.

It's not easy to find historic cases of a new disease, especially if there weren't many. It is hard enough to find current cases.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Martenson's latest, worth a look. 'Gain of function'...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZUJhKUbd0k