New coronavirus in/from China

[Bedrock Barney]

https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/welcome-t ... agflation/

Heading for 1970s-style cost-push inflation

What we used to call the advanced world economies face a fateful combination of possible pandemic outcomes: depression, then (possibly) boom, with either inflation or deflation. My view is that, out of the different scenarios, we are heading for stagflation.

In a trend-bent future, debt-trapped demand inhibits output recovery. Zombie companies, denied sufficient monetary life-support, will expire. Some otherwise viable companies will not recover. Productivity will rebound and unemployment ramp up. After the 2008 financial crisis, the world experienced low productivity and low unemployment. This time round, that combination will be reversed.

Many low-to-middle income ‘just about managing’ working households will need partial or full state support. Easy cheap credit will not rescue the debt-trapped, including the state. Inflation is the solution to debt, with nominal income growing while real income stagnates.

The pandemic is unprecedented since the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. It is a trend-bender – like two world wars, the 1929 Wall Street crash, and the breakdown of Bretton Woods. We can no longer presume we are going smoothly to where we have been. We need to go back to economic theory to discern the post-Covid world.

[continues]

I agree with this article. Governments now need inflation.

We'll get it. My best guess is level/negative inflation for the next couple of years, then positive inflation leading to double digit inflation in the second half of the decade (with double digit interest rates). At this point, we're all in a world of hurt.

[Vortex2]

Too many words ...

Some posts here are the size of War and Peace.

Pls could we use links where possible.

Thanks.

[Mark]

Not true, there's also a lot of work going on to develop treatments.

Here’s Exactly Where We Are with Vaccines and Treatments for COVID-19:
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... #Treatment

You don't actually read the things you link to do you

No...., you didn't read what I typed, which was that there's a lot of work going on to develop treatments, which there is.
Granted, some of the initial findings don't look too hopeful, but it's very early doors...

You typed that the only exit is and always was herd immunity.
That fits your narrative, as you only see the world in black & white, when it's actually a glorious technicolour of different views and opinion.....

Right on cue....

Coronavirus: UK hospital trials new treatment drug:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52504409

The drug on trial here is Interferon Beta.
Interferon Alfa-2B Recombinant (I guess closely related) has already been developed by Cuba and is on trial in several countries, including China....

Cuba and coronavirus: how Cuban biotech came to combat Covid-19:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/ ... -covid-19/
Cuba uses 'Wonder Drug' to fight Coronavirus around the world despite US Sanctions:
https://www.newsweek.com/cuba-drug-figh ... ns-1493872

This is also about who gets to benefit from the massive $$$$$ bonanza from developing an effective treatment/vaccine....
It would kill the US if their Big Pharma is beaten to the punch by the Cubans....
Haven't looked at Synairgen's share price, but imagine it's well up.....

[Vortex2]

Tip re internet loading

If your connection stalls a lot, try changing DNS servers.

This has worked for me a couple of times.

[kenneal - lagger]

Meanwhile, if LJ could just possibly manage to hold off, just for a second, on the supercilious, but essentially vacuous sneering and usual implication of anyone not following your line being either stupid or immoral - it works both ways because none of us really can prove that we are right - have you written to your MP about this? Spouting forth on this forum is essentially a waste of time as we, and this forum, have precisely no influence on what goes on in this world whereas your MP has access to the people who make the decisions.

If your thinking is so water tight don't you think that your MP might be impressed and push the position in Parliament where there is a chance that some changes will be made. Impugning the integrity of contributors to this forum because they disagree with you and aren't clever enough to see the wisdom of your thoughts meanwhile does nothing to change the way the government handles this crisis.

So, LJ, have you written to your MP yet?

[clv101]

David King's 'interpendent SAGE' is fascinating! Live streamed: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cFLAwZeNfxE

[fuzzy]

Meanwhile, if LJ could just possibly manage to hold off, just for a second, on the supercilious, but essentially vacuous sneering and usual implication of anyone not following your line being either stupid or immoral - it works both ways because none of us really can prove that we are right - have you written to your MP about this? Spouting forth on this forum is essentially a waste of time as we, and this forum, have precisely no influence on what goes on in this world whereas your MP has access to the people who make the decisions.

If your thinking is so water tight don't you think that your MP might be impressed and push the position in Parliament where there is a chance that some changes will be made. Impugning the integrity of contributors to this forum because they disagree with you and aren't clever enough to see the wisdom of your thoughts meanwhile does nothing to change the way the government handles this crisis.

So, LJ, have you written to your MP yet?

He is at work. Why should the minimum wage give free consultancy to the trough feeders in parliament? We are in the same trap of all large organisations - the people at the top are not worth it.

[Vortex2]

Bounce Back Loan Scheme

I have just applied on-line for a Bounce Back Loan.

It only took five minutes!

1. Find the application page for your business bank.

2. Enter bank account number and name.

3. Enter loan amount (max 25% turnover)

4. Tick about 15 boxes.

All done!

I received a confirmation email instantly.

So subject to "some final checks" the money will appear in my account soon.

[fuzzy]

Interest free?

[Vortex2]

Interest free?

For sole trader & small firms, 2.5%, repayable over 6 years, NO chance of seizing house or car if you default, 25% of turnover max. (capped at £50k?), no risk to lending bank. Only 7 or so key simple questions to answer .. and you self-certify. No buz plan or projections needed. Can be refused if you fail some obvious tests.

[boisdevie]

Interest free?

For sole trader & small firms, 2.5%, repayable over 6 years, NO chance of seizing house or car if you default, 25% of turnover max. (capped at £50k?), no risk to lending bank. Only 7 or so key simple questions to answer .. and you self-certify. No buz plan or projections needed. Can be refused if you fail some obvious tests.

That's tempting. With that kind of money I could buy an oceangoing yacht, stuff it full of supplies and disappear.

[kenneal - lagger]

Meanwhile, if LJ could just possibly manage to hold off, just for a second, on the supercilious, but essentially vacuous sneering and usual implication of anyone not following your line being either stupid or immoral - it works both ways because none of us really can prove that we are right - have you written to your MP about this? Spouting forth on this forum is essentially a waste of time as we, and this forum, have precisely no influence on what goes on in this world whereas your MP has access to the people who make the decisions.

If your thinking is so water tight don't you think that your MP might be impressed and push the position in Parliament where there is a chance that some changes will be made. Impugning the integrity of contributors to this forum because they disagree with you and aren't clever enough to see the wisdom of your thoughts meanwhile does nothing to change the way the government handles this crisis.

So, LJ, have you written to your MP yet?

He is at work. Why should the minimum wage give free consultancy to the trough feeders in parliament? We are in the same trap of all large organisations - the people at the top are not worth it.

So you are saying that he shouldn't do something useful for the working class and just contribute here which is ultimately a waste of time even if it does massage his ego?

If you don't interact with your MP how the f*** do you think they are going to know what their constituents think and want?

[kenneal - lagger]

Interest free?

For sole trader & small firms, 2.5%, repayable over 6 years, NO chance of seizing house or car if you default, 25% of turnover max. (capped at £50k?), no risk to lending bank. Only 7 or so key simple questions to answer .. and you self-certify. No buz plan or projections needed. Can be refused if you fail some obvious tests.

That's tempting. With that kind of money I could buy an oceangoing yacht, stuff it full of supplies and disappear.

Yes, please, do go ahead and do that.

[Vortex2]

HMG data as at 4th April

As of 9am on 4 May, there have been 1,291,591 tests, with 85,186 tests on 3 May.

945,299 people have been tested, of whom 190,584 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 3 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 28,734 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 24,332

.
Hospital death rate daily 7-day average steadily falling,

Cases per day 7-day rolling average falling slowly.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country.
•

Early community spreading changes our knowledge of covid-19 epidemic.
•

This new case changes our understanding of the epidemic and modeling studies should adjust to this new data.