New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 29 Apr 2020, 18:37

Antibodies and immunity

From today's Teleg:

'Experts on the Government's Sage committee now believe that only about five per cent of the population has been infected with the disease and that there is "almost no herd immunity" in Britain.'

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 29 Apr 2020, 18:44

Which is why the young and fit, who are unlikely to die of it, should have been allowed to get infected. Thus providing the necessary herd immunity for the elderly and already sick with other conditions. As it is, we have had a month of complete lock-down and a consequently f***ed economy for NOTHING. Either this is rank incompetence that stretches across all major Western powers. Or it is something else.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 29 Apr 2020, 18:56

Doctors who dissent are now being silenced

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPrbGU0 ... e=youtu.be

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 29 Apr 2020, 19:10

Little John wrote:Which is why the young and fit, who are unlikely to die of it, should have been allowed to get infected. Thus providing the necessary herd immunity for the elderly and already sick with other conditions. As it is, we have had a month of complete lock-down and a consequently f***ed economy for NOTHING. Either this is rank incompetence that stretches across all major Western powers. Or it is something else.

I can only assume that we had to do something to give us time to work out what to do next.

That's fair enough as long as we now switch to a mode which unlocks the economy pronto without resulting in piles of bodies in the streets.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 29 Apr 2020, 19:18

I see sweden was featured on ITV news. End of April almost and still not a basket case, nor overcome by piles of dead bodies.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 29 Apr 2020, 20:56

Snail wrote:I see sweden was featured on ITV news. End of April almost and still not a basket case, nor overcome by piles of dead bodies.

* They practice lock-down without having it made formal. Some of this is due to hints from government and they also have absorbed hints by osmosis from their neighbouring countries.

* Many live in single apartments.

* The old are parked away from the main society.

Now let's look at the Top Of The Pops chart for deaths per million:

Belgium 656.7
Spain 519.5
Italy 458.1
United Kingdom 392.5
France 353.2
Netherlands 273.4
Sweden 241.8
.
.
.
Denmark 76.4

Golly gosh ... 7th position ... and the neighbours are doing a lot better!

See: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

The chief statistician in Sweden has also said their system is working ... except for the elderly. wtf?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 29 Apr 2020, 21:34

Interesting sample-of-one anecdote from the Teleg

Karol Skiora, a private oncologist and Dean of Medicine at the University of Buckingham, has been carrying out his own antibody testing and believes that between eight to 10 per cent of people are likely to have had coronavirus so far.

"We're nowhere near herd immunity," he said. "We could definitely have a second peak. It is a real worry."

5% or 10% ... we still have a long way to go ...

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 29 Apr 2020, 22:00

Vortex2 wrote:
Snail wrote:I see sweden was featured on ITV news. End of April almost and still not a basket case, nor overcome by piles of dead bodies.
* They practice lock-down without having it made formal. Some of this is due to hints from government and they also have absorbed hints by osmosis from their neighbouring countries.

* Many live in single apartments.

* The old are parked away from the main society.

Now let's look at the Top Of The Pops chart for deaths per million:

Belgium 656.7
Spain 519.5
Italy 458.1
United Kingdom 392.5
France 353.2
Netherlands 273.4
Sweden 241.8
.
.
.
Denmark 76.4

Golly gosh ... 7th position ... and the neighbours are doing a lot better!

See: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

The chief statistician in Sweden has also said their system is working ... except for the elderly. wtf?

Their 'lockdown practice' is very lax
The young single householders presumably meet up with friends and families
The old are parked away in every western society
You cant really compare countries in this way as there is too many differences from country to country that the virus can use to exploit. Maybe it got into the care system sooner in sweden, or something about Stockholm etc. But not much difference between deaths/million of sweden and Ireland. Yet ireland's locked down significantly tighter.

Swedens hospital system is coping with spare capacity.

Swedens numbers aren't showing the expected growth? Rather, they've plateaued.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 30 Apr 2020, 09:24

Why is the second wave going to be bigger?

Apparently there is a risk of a BIG second wave in December if we lift the lock-down.

Why would it be big?

Is it because the first wave starts with a few individuals, whereas a second wave would be primed with thousands of infected individuals?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 30 Apr 2020, 12:18

HMG data for 29th April (reported on 30th)

As of 9am on 29 April, there have been 818,539 tests, with 52,429 tests on 28 April.

632,794 people have been tested, of whom 165,221 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 28 April, of those who tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 26,097 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings not just in hospitals.

The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 22,286.

The new cases and hospital deaths seem fairly stable - certainly no major reduction.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 30 Apr 2020, 15:18

Little John wrote:Which is why the young and fit, who are unlikely to die of it, should have been allowed to get infected. Thus providing the necessary herd immunity for the elderly and already sick with other conditions. As it is, we have had a month of complete lock-down and a consequently f***ed economy for NOTHING. Either this is rank incompetence that stretches across all major Western powers. Or it is something else.

LJ, you are assuming that the death rate, hospitalisation rate and age/death profile would be the same for an unattenuated outbreak as for the modulated outbreak that we now have. You have given no proof for this but just assumed, and are telling us to assume, that it would be the same in both types of outbreak.

Until it can be proved that an unattenuated outbreak would not cause a problem with the hospitalisation rate and the load on the NHS the government are taking the safety first option of locking us down. If they had left us largely open you would have been among the first to blame the government for putting the economy and money above public health no matter what the death rate was. As far as you are concerned they are damned if they do and damned if they don't although you might let them off the hook somewhat if they delver Brexit for you.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 30 Apr 2020, 15:24

I haven't checked the stats BUT in we opened the flood gates we might find that more younger people die because of lack of hospital care.

I wonder what the age distribution of the dead in places like Ecuador is?

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 30 Apr 2020, 15:30

Vortex2 wrote:I haven't checked the stats BUT in we opened the flood gates we might find that more younger people die because of lack of hospital care.

I wonder what the age distribution of the dead in places like Ecuador is?

'If'
'Might'

So basically you're prepared to make a major decision based on nothing more than a WAG (wild assed guess) - well IF we decide to complete screw up the economy so hard that it makes the Great Depression look like halcyon days I'd like some real evidence - call me old fashioned if you like.

Post by **clv101** » 30 Apr 2020, 15:48

kenneal - lagger wrote:LJ, you are assuming that the death rate, hospitalisation rate and age/death profile would be the same for an unattenuated outbreak as for the modulated outbreak that we now have.

Don't think anyone's suggesting that, it's nonsense.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 30 Apr 2020, 16:37

boisdevie wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:I haven't checked the stats BUT in we opened the flood gates we might find that more younger people die because of lack of hospital care.

I wonder what the age distribution of the dead in places like Ecuador is?
'If'
'Might'

So basically you're prepared to make a major decision based on nothing more than a WAG (wild assed guess) - well IF we decide to complete screw up the economy so hard that it makes the Great Depression look like halcyon days I'd like some real evidence - call me old fashioned if you like.

But you are making a WAG that an unattenuated outbreak would have the same profiles as the current modulated outbreak. You're happy to kill loads of people to keep the economy going. I'd like some real evidence - call me old fashioned if you like.