New coronavirus in/from China

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Apr 2020, 10:53

Vortex2 wrote:
Anyway, off to sow the winter Brassicas.
Too flipping wet here to want to go out ...

Show off!

Water butts are empty, we have had no meaningful rain in six weeks. The field is looking dry and this is WALES!!!!!

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 28 Apr 2020, 11:40

Vortex2 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:At present death rates in the US are declining. The last seven days has averaged below 2000 per day a drop of over 500 from the two weeks previous.
They have now done over five million tests or one hundred per fatality.
Someone does have to bear the costs of these tests which are not cheap. At some point they will have to curtail testing due to the cost and diminished benefit derived by the test information obtained.
* True deaths will be maybe 60% higher.

No true Covid-19 only deaths may be 50% lower the rest being ordinary deaths where Covid was a minor player.

* I doubt that the death rate will plummet to zero .. we will probably get to an annoyingly high 'base level'.

Yes most probably.

* Unless all the fragile cases have been 'all used up', there could be a nasty turnaround once the lockdowns are lifted.

They are far from being all used up with many nursing homes managing to not yet let Covid in the door. But even with lockdowns mostly lifted nursing home staff will attempt to keep their patients isolated and protected. So instead of a sudden spike we will see a steady trickle of nursing home infections brought in by visiting children and grand children that slipped through the screening process. Of course any nursing home resident can be considered a normal death waiting to happen in the first place.
What is more worrying is the possibility of cases in younger otherwise healthy people spiking after the lock downs are lifted.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 28 Apr 2020, 14:25

FT is now suggesting that the total UK death toll for COVID-19 is around 40,000 ...

... which puts the UK close to / at the top of the death charts.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 28 Apr 2020, 14:32

stumuz1 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
Anyway, off to sow the winter Brassicas.
Too flipping wet here to want to go out ...
Show off!

Water butts are empty, we have had no meaningful rain in six weeks. The field is looking dry and this is WALES!!!!!

It's been raining here for most of the morning and what was almost dry soil is now wet all the way down. It should stop raining later this evening only for a very wet front to sweep over the south tomorrow lunch time. We should have a sunny afternoon tomorrow followed by more rain so I will put the winter brassicas and baby salads into a moist seed bed tomorrow afternoon.

The water butts are filling nicely. 25mm of rain will fill our 1000ltr IBC container from the roof and I will pump that to the top of the garden for watering later in the year.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Apr 2020, 14:35

Vortex2 wrote:FT is now suggesting that the total UK death toll for COVID-19 is around 40,000 ...

... which puts the UK close to / at the top of the death charts.

Wasn't that a week ago? We'll be around 50k by now. Hard to compare that number with other countries though as all countries have there own degrees of under reporting.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 28 Apr 2020, 14:48

clv101 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:FT is now suggesting that the total UK death toll for COVID-19 is around 40,000 ...

... which puts the UK close to / at the top of the death charts.
Wasn't that a week ago? We'll be around 50k by now. Hard to compare that number with other countries though as all countries have there own degrees of under reporting.

Agreed .. although at the end of the day I think we will still get a rosette.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 28 Apr 2020, 16:10

We did start out with a larger list of comorbidities than most other countries. With our love of chips and take aways we weren't the healthiest country in Europe.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 28 Apr 2020, 17:12

kenneal - lagger wrote:We did start out with a larger list of comorbidities than most other countries. With our love of chips and take aways we weren't the healthiest country in Europe.

Exactly. We see around 40k deaths in the UK every year directly attributable to obesity and I don't see us going apeshit and shutting down the economy over that one.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 28 Apr 2020, 17:18

boisdevie wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:We did start out with a larger list of comorbidities than most other countries. With our love of chips and take aways we weren't the healthiest country in Europe.
Exactly. We see around 40k deaths in the UK every year directly attributable to obesity and I don't see us going apeshit and shutting down the economy over that one.

Obesity doesn't grow exponentially.

Obesity doesn't kill NHS staff.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 28 Apr 2020, 17:43

Vortex2 wrote:
boisdevie wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:We did start out with a larger list of comorbidities than most other countries. With our love of chips and take aways we weren't the healthiest country in Europe.
Exactly. We see around 40k deaths in the UK every year directly attributable to obesity and I don't see us going apeshit and shutting down the economy over that one.
Obesity doesn't grow exponentially.

Obesity doesn't kill NHS staff.

So?

sam_uk · Post by **sam_uk** » 28 Apr 2020, 17:46

The blood clotting/ strokes stuff doesn't look too cheery:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglat ... ed-people/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 84091.html

This is interesting from the medical side: https://covidprotocols.org/

The Nicotine angle is interesting though: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -nicotine/

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 28 Apr 2020, 18:15

boisdevie wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:We did start out with a larger list of comorbidities than most other countries. With our love of chips and take aways we weren't the healthiest country in Europe.
Exactly. We see around 40k deaths in the UK every year directly attributable to obesity and I don't see us going apeshit and shutting down the economy over that one.

Obesity comtributes to the economy according to economists so there is not so much concern over it. And has been said it is not contagious. If we hadn't had the lock down the death toll would have been far, far in excess of the current figure so comparing covid-19 deaths with obesity is like comparing apples and oranges and is somewhat disengenuous.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 28 Apr 2020, 19:33

Vortex2 wrote:
Obesity doesn't kill NHS staff.

There must a few fat NHS staff out there just as much at risk as the rest of the lard bottoms.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 28 Apr 2020, 19:58

Latest HMG data as at 28th April (from bulletin broadcast)

New daily cases : 3996 (down from yesterday) making the total 161145

New daily hospital deaths : 586 (up from yesterday) making the total 21678

It was also noted that many thousand deaths from care homes at at home have not been included in the above.

Update : official version now available:

As of 9am on 28 April, there have been 763,387 tests, with 43,563 tests on 27 April.

599,339 people have been tested, of whom 161,145 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 27 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 21,678 have died.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Apr 2020, 22:18

Here's a good presentation of the UK situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYsLHLVJ6RM