New coronavirus in/from China

[Vortex2]

I suspect that a 'leaky lockdown' will be the best strategy for the UK.

The gobby chavs and entitled, exceptionalist 'I know better' middle classes will be allowed out to play ... because we have no way to keep them in.

The better behaved will be exhorted to stay at home, wear masks, work from home etc.

We can then keep restaurants etc closed to modulate the death rate to avoid hitting the NHS.

No complicated hard-to-enforce repeated lock-downs will be needed.

[clv101]

This is well worth reading, especially for anyone who thinks there's a straightforward, or 'correct' response to this situation:

https://unherd.com/2020/04/which-epidem ... u-believe/

[eatyourveg]

Seems like not everyone is not effing this whole thing up.

New Zealand’s transmission rate – the number of people each infected person can pass the virus to – was now under 0.4, compared to the average overseas transmission rate of 2.5.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Decisive action at the right time. It's obviously not over but well done you lot I say. Just 19 deaths - nineteen. Not 30k, 19.

[Little John]

So, the less deadly version of this virus (for most people) has been stopped from infecting the majority of the population (who would have recovered and likely developed partial immunity to all subsequent variants). Meanwhile, just around the corner, a new strain, that will be equally deadly to all age groups, is waiting in the wings.

f***ing humans are stupid

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 85441.html

[stumuz1]

This is well worth reading, especially for anyone who thinks there's a straightforward, or 'correct' response to this situation:

https://unherd.com/2020/04/which-epidem ... u-believe/

Very good article.

[Vortex2]

Seems like not everyone is not effing this whole thing up.

New Zealand’s transmission rate – the number of people each infected person can pass the virus to – was now under 0.4, compared to the average overseas transmission rate of 2.5.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Decisive action at the right time. It's obviously not over but well done you lot I say. Just 19 deaths - nineteen. Not 30k, 19.

NZ is a small remote isolated old-fashioned country where a hard well-timed lockdown can work.

"Old Mr Jones from High Top Farm seems to be a bit rough. Get him isolated and tested. Ask his wife Mabel and farm hand Jeff to stay in for a few days."

The UK however is a huge country full of chavs and riff-raff so any hard lock down and tracing system will never work. We don't even test the 1000s of plane arrivals each day.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclus ... 96.article

A serious coronavirus-related syndrome may be emerging in the UK, according to an “urgent alert� issued to doctors, following a rise in cases in the last two to three weeks, HSJ has learned.

An alert to GPs and seen by HSJ says that in the “last three weeks, there has been an apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multisystem inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also in other regions of the UK�.

It adds: “There is a growing concern that a [covid-19] related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK, or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases.�

[fuzzy]

There is a lot of indirect evidence that we are being played in the presentation of data. Quite a few 'papers' quoting stats of patients eg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1LHg-Nv53k

These mean the square root of FA unless they are rated against the % of people already in each group

If 57% of people in hospital had hypertension, what % in NY, median age 63, have hypertension anyway?

If 57% have hypertension then it is not a factor in covid19, although a sad army of talking head gurus have tried to bang on about hospital stats like old cougher John. They often then launch into a diatribe about alcohol, red meat and animal fat, then go full Thurnberg about hugging whales.

[Little John]

https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclus ... 96.article

A serious coronavirus-related syndrome may be emerging in the UK, according to an “urgent alert� issued to doctors, following a rise in cases in the last two to three weeks, HSJ has learned.

An alert to GPs and seen by HSJ says that in the “last three weeks, there has been an apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multisystem inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also in other regions of the UK�.

It adds: “There is a growing concern that a [covid-19] related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK, or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases.�

right on cue

Either

a) this is precisely the reason why people who were able to recover should have been allowed to get infected with a milder, earlier strain

or

b) this is just more manufactured bullshit to keep this ridiculous total lockdown going

[Initiation]

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis ... upply.html

For almost everything else, what is in the present supply chains is all there will be until the new harvests, so what shortages there may be will become evident in a few months' time.

[clv101]

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis ... upply.html

For almost everything else, what is in the present supply chains is all there will be until the new harvests, so what shortages there may be will become evident in a few months' time.

Indeed, the health crisis will soon be replaced by a economic and food crisis.

None of these countries' governments is particularly efficient and most famines in history have been caused, or at best exacerbated, by human failings.

Note this is more to do with people and politics than the physical world. Therefore we do at least have a degree of freedom to do something about it.

[Little John]

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis ... upply.html

For almost everything else, what is in the present supply chains is all there will be until the new harvests, so what shortages there may be will become evident in a few months' time.

Indeed, the health crisis will soon be replaced by a economic and food crisis.

None of these countries' governments is particularly efficient and most famines in history have been caused, or at best exacerbated, by human failings.

Note this is more to do with people and politics than the physical world. Therefore we do at least have a degree of freedom to do something about it.

We have no degree of freedom in this country. Our economy collapses - we go hungry.

[clv101]

We have no degree of freedom in this country. Our economy collapses - we go hungry.

I was thinking globally.

[Vortex2]

UK deaths prediction

Here is a typical amateur prediction of UK daily deaths.

The graph is based on a 7-day moving average of HMG data up to Day 60.
(The actual data is very bumpy during a week)

The remainder is a projection.

Using a 7-day average reveals that we seem to have passed the current peak.

Be aware that various models give different graphs - but they are mostly similar to this one, with the 'tail' being a little steeper or shallower in some.

However I expect that with a 'leaky lockdown' which is becoming leakier by the minute, I expect a sudden levelling off before we get to very low 7-day averages for daily death rates.

[Vortex2]

The Five Tests

These five tests must be met before the government will consider easing the current measures:

1. To make sure the NHS can cope by providing sufficient critical care across the UK

2. To see a sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates with confidence the UK is beyond the peak

3. Reliable data to show the infection rate is falling to manageable levels

4. There is enough testing and personal protective equipment (PPE) to meet future demand

5. Any changes in restrictions would not lead to a second peak.

Tests 1, 2, and 3 are probably passed as of today.

Test 4 will be passed quite soon I would expect.

So does anyone know how we can pass test 5?