New coronavirus in/from China

[clv101]

This is a dumb outcome. We either needed a proper lockdown, with closed borders, mass testing and contact tracing, in an attempt to exterminate the virus. Or we needed to let the virus run. Rather like brexit, the compromise solution simply doesn't work, but that's exactly what we got. Locked down enough to totally F--k up the economy, but not locked down enough to get the virus under control.

Yep, it's a mess.

[Vortex2]

Idle musings ..

I have been playing with all sorts of graphing and regression tools.

Although the data from HMG is very 'noisy' I would guess that the peak for daily new cases and daily deaths was reached almost two weeks ago. (I can't see any time-delay effect between the two sets of data ... although to be frank its a bit hard to tell)

However in view of the data quality I can see why HMG needs a further two weeks to determine the next steps.

The daily case and death levels should recede significantly in the next couple of weeks.

The longest delay in my calculations gave a very low death rate in about 35 days from now - but most results indicated a shorter delay.

I can however imagine that we might halt at a plateau above the values needed to commence any 'containment' phase. This awkward situation has occurred in NYC for example.

Anyway we shall know more in the next two weeks or so.

[Little John]

What happens when the case rate has dropped? Release? It will just rise again. Then what? Complete lock down again? For how long?

This is just f***ing ridiculous.

It should be fully financially supported lock down of the over 60s and those with comorbidities of any age and only then with their permission. But, anyone who is elderly or with comorbidities who elects not to enter voluntary lockdown goes to the back of the queue for ICU facilities in the event of being infected.

The percentage of the population under, say, 60 is over 75% of the population and the CFR for the under 60s with no comorbidites is miniscule at well under half of 1%. If we take off those with comorbidities under 60, it will still be over 70% of the population that can be more or less safely exposed to this virus. When they have all been infected and recovered, in a couple of months at most, there will be enough herd immunity in place to be able to lift any lockdown on the over 70s and those with comorbidities.

That's as good as it gets. All other strategies are varying shades of shite.

At best, our government is incompetent. At worst, we are all being played.

[kenneal - lagger]

This is on no evidence whatsoever, just wishful thinking. Could a proportion of the population be completely immune to the virus, to the extent that they never make antibodies, because the virus cannot penetrate their cells to start an infection in the first place? If that were true we could be a lot closer to herd immunity than we think. As far as i know the only way to know would be when the virus stops spreading sooner than expected.

People have been found with natural immunity to even Ebola and others swear that they have never had flu so there is a probability that there are some with a natural immunity to covid-19. How large that population is is anyone's guess. I wouldn't put money on it being significant.

Natural immunity is through evolution. If a disease does not kill reproductive age, then there is no evolution. It will aways kill mainly the elderly and will become more targeted over time.

Not what happened with Spanish flu. When it came back for its second wave it killed mainly younger people. We have no idea how this virus will mutate in the future and so have to be careful about how we deal with this outbreak.

[Little John]

People have been found with natural immunity to even Ebola and others swear that they have never had flu so there is a probability that there are some with a natural immunity to covid-19. How large that population is is anyone's guess. I wouldn't put money on it being significant.

Natural immunity is through evolution. If a disease does not kill reproductive age, then there is no evolution. It will aways kill mainly the elderly and will become more targeted over time.

Not what happened with Spanish flu. When it came back for its second wave it killed mainly younger people. We have no idea how this virus will mutate in the future and so have to be careful about how we deal with this outbreak.

It is precisely the above which is why it should be allowed to run its course as naturally as possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_f ... f_fatality

The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was indeed much more deadly than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States, the virus had mutated to a much more deadly form. October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic.

This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War. In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. The second wave began, and the flu quickly spread around the world again. Consequently, during modern pandemics, health officials pay attention when the virus reaches places with social upheaval (looking for deadlier strains of the virus).

The fact that most of those who recovered from first-wave infections had become immune showed that it must have been the same strain of flu. This was most dramatically illustrated in Copenhagen, which escaped with a combined mortality rate of just 0.29% (0.02% in the first wave and 0.27% in the second wave) because of exposure to the less-lethal first wave.[106] For the rest of the population, the second wave was far more deadly; the most vulnerable people were those like the soldiers in the trenches – adults who were young and fit

[UndercoverElephant]

At worst, we are all being played.

For what purpose?

Looks to me like the people running the show do not have a viable strategy. They are just making it up as they go along.

[Little John]

At worst, we are all being played.

For what purpose?

Looks to me like the people running the show do not have a viable strategy. They are just making it up as they go along.

For what purpose? Are you kidding?

Q4 of 2019 saw economic indicators all pointing to imminent economic collapse

This economic collapse would have happened soon in any case, but now we're seeing a controlled demolition with a "natural disaster" to blame it on, absolving the guilty parties. Namely, central banks and capitalist governments.

[UndercoverElephant]

At worst, we are all being played.

For what purpose?

Looks to me like the people running the show do not have a viable strategy. They are just making it up as they go along.

For what purpose? Are you kidding?

Q4 of 2019 saw economic indicators all pointing to imminent economic collapse

This economic collapse would have happened soon in any case, but now we're seeing a controlled demolition with a "natural disaster" to blame it on, absolving the guilty parties. Namely, central banks and capitalist governments.

I would rule that possibility out, personally. It requires a level of conspiracy that I don't think is possible. It looks to me like they don't know what to do.

[vtsnowedin]

I would rule that possibility out, personally. It requires a level of conspiracy that I don't think is possible. It looks to me like they don't know what to do.

Agreed. The possibility of a group of criminal masterminds manipulating us vs. a group of incompetent buffoons just screwing up goes to the buffoons by twenty to one.

[kenneal - lagger]

Covid continues to surprise, now it's infected Mink and made them ill.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

I hope it gets into the wild population. They're evil little buggers especially if you are a water vole or a chicken. And wildlife campaigners actually released them into the wild from mink farms!! Absolute nutters with no knowledge of real life.

[kenneal - lagger]

I would rule that possibility out, personally. It requires a level of conspiracy that I don't think is possible. It looks to me like they don't know what to do.

Agreed. The possibility of a group of criminal masterminds manipulating us vs. a group of incompetent buffoons just screwing up goes to the buffoons by twenty to one.

Quite!! Is Trump/Pmurt, the man who can't quite make up his mind which way he is facing, actually manipulating anyone?

[Little John]

I would rule that possibility out, personally. It requires a level of conspiracy that I don't think is possible. It looks to me like they don't know what to do.

Agreed. The possibility of a group of criminal masterminds manipulating us vs. a group of incompetent buffoons just screwing up goes to the buffoons by twenty to one.

Quite!! Is Trump/Pmurt, the man who can't quite make up his mind which way he is facing, actually manipulating anyone?

Of course Trump is not manipulating anyone. He is far too stupid for that. But, in his own, knuckle headed manner, he is articulating a position that the rest of the world will be forced to at some point.

[fuzzy]

People have been found with natural immunity to even Ebola and others swear that they have never had flu so there is a probability that there are some with a natural immunity to covid-19. How large that population is is anyone's guess. I wouldn't put money on it being significant.

Natural immunity is through evolution. If a disease does not kill reproductive age, then there is no evolution. It will aways kill mainly the elderly and will become more targeted over time.

Not what happened with Spanish flu. When it came back for its second wave it killed mainly younger people. We have no idea how this virus will mutate in the future and so have to be careful about how we deal with this outbreak.

Yes but mutation and evolution are 2 things not 1

[Little John]

So, in a nutshell, the only solution out of this that keeps the CFR as low as possible from the virus itself whilst simultaneously leaving something vaguely resembling a functioning economy is a controlled infection of the under 60s with no comorbidities. In other words, total lock-down till a vaccine arrives or total lock down as a series of pulsed releases are unrealistic at best and economically catastrophic with all of the attendant health issues at worst.

Yes, pulsed release is certainly less awful than letting it rip due to our medical systems being less likely to be overloaded. But, that is predicated on (a) those pulsed releases being adequately micro managed for at least a year and a half, (b) our economies remaining sufficiently intact to have the resources to enact those pulsed releases for as long as it takes and (c) the mass of the population being psychologically prepared and economically capable of withstanding the psychological and economic privations that such pulsed releases inevitably include.

Finally, as I've alluded to above, at the end of such a pulsed release strategy, here in the UK at least, the damage done to the economy would be so total and catastrophic, there is the little matter of how, precisely, we continue to be able to afford to import the more than 50% of food we need to feed ourselves. Not to mention the myriad of other industrial resources we need, not least energy itself. In other words, I am suggesting that the economic fallout from such a strategy may well lead to a shortening of lives, over the longer term, that dwarfs the lengthening of lives achieved with a pulsed lock down. I am suggesting this because the evidence is already both voluminous and overwhelming about such economic privations on life expectancy.

A controlled infection of all those under 60 with no comorbidities, however, could be achieved in less than two months, would still be very unlikely to overwhelm our medical systems and would allow the comorbid and elderly to come out of lockdown at the end of two months due to having the protection provided by the rest of the under 60 population via their herd immunity. And our economies would not be wrecked. Or, at least, not as wrecked as they are going to be with any other strategy. This is especially critical to do now with this first wave where we already know how lethal this virus is and which groups are most vulnerable. In any second wave, like as in 1918, any new mutant strain could be far more lethal. So, we should encourage infection of those strong enough to recover now with this potentially less lethal strain.

[vtsnowedin]

Yes but mutation and evolution are 2 things not 1

Mutation is a major mechanism of evolution so they do go together. Evolution without mutation goes on of course but at a much slower rate.