New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **clv101** » 26 Apr 2020, 14:50

vtsnowedin wrote:I do not agree that economic collapse is inevitable...

~All pervious civilisations have collapsed, taking their particular economic systems with them. That our current civilisation will collapse along with its economic system really is inevitable. The only question is timing and mechanism. It looks pretty plausible that the 2020s will be the decade collapse starts, with covid19 as a powerful trigger - but it'll take a while. During the decade there might be accelerants such as climate related multiple bread basket failures, famine and/or a significant war.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 26 Apr 2020, 14:51

clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I do not agree that economic collapse is inevitable...
~All pervious civilisations have collapsed, taking their particular economic systems with them. That our current civilisation will collapse along with its economic system really is inevitable. The only question is timing and mechanism. It looks pretty plausible that the 2020s will be the decade collapse starts, with covid19 as a powerful trigger - but it'll take a while. During the decade there might be accelerants such as climate related multiple bread basket failures, famine and/or a significant war.

Interesting that an old-school peak oiler didn't include the one this entire website was built around.

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 26 Apr 2020, 15:04

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I do not agree that economic collapse is inevitable...
~All pervious civilisations have collapsed, taking their particular economic systems with them. That our current civilisation will collapse along with its economic system really is inevitable. The only question is timing and mechanism. It looks pretty plausible that the 2020s will be the decade collapse starts, with covid19 as a powerful trigger - but it'll take a while. During the decade there might be accelerants such as climate related multiple bread basket failures, famine and/or a significant war.
Interesting that an old-school peak oiler didn't include the one this entire website was built around.

He was leading you into a trap RGR. Gotcha

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 26 Apr 2020, 16:05

vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:There is an evolutionary reason why something like the common cold is very easy to catch and something like HIV is not. You might want to consider why.
I wonder why you think HIV is hard to catch?

Because, in viral terms, relatively speaking, it is.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 26 Apr 2020, 16:34

Latest from HMG as at 26th April (via daily briefing .. HMG web page not updated yet)

Cases: 152840

Deaths: 20732

These are lowish figures ... BUT ... the Sunday data is generally far too low.

Monday's data will probably be less optimistic.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 26 Apr 2020, 16:39

kenneal - lagger wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:This is on no evidence whatsoever, just wishful thinking. Could a proportion of the population be completely immune to the virus, to the extent that they never make antibodies, because the virus cannot penetrate their cells to start an infection in the first place? If that were true we could be a lot closer to herd immunity than we think. As far as i know the only way to know would be when the virus stops spreading sooner than expected.
People have been found with natural immunity to even Ebola and others swear that they have never had flu so there is a probability that there are some with a natural immunity to covid-19. How large that population is is anyone's guess. I wouldn't put money on it being significant.

Natural immunity is through evolution. If a disease does not kill reproductive age, then there is no evolution. It will aways kill mainly the elderly and will become more targeted over time.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 26 Apr 2020, 16:52

Little John wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:There is an evolutionary reason why something like the common cold is very easy to catch and something like HIV is not. You might want to consider why.
I wonder why you think HIV is hard to catch?
Because, in viral terms, relatively speaking, it is.

HIV is very contagious ... especially the African variant.

COVID-19 is very infectious.

Very infectious is way worse than very contagious .. although both are bad.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 26 Apr 2020, 16:59

If a disease does not kill reproductive age, then there is no evolution.

Not true.

If the oldsters disappear it will affect the way the younguns live. ... which will be an input into evolution.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 26 Apr 2020, 17:11

clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Cat it does not matter if there will be herd immunity or not. We have to get the economy going again or the economic collapse will be far worse then the pandemic even if we did nothing to mitigate it or slow the spread.
Indeed, but remember economic collapse is inevitable. We just didn't know exactly when or by what mechanism, until now.

Why should it be inevitable?

We now have a huge population, with lots of technology and lots of knowledge.

I suspect that even if the face of major economic or other stress, there will always be opportunities for pockets or threads of economic activity to survive and then re-emerge.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 26 Apr 2020, 18:00

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I do not agree that economic collapse is inevitable...
~All pervious civilisations have collapsed, taking their particular economic systems with them. That our current civilisation will collapse along with its economic system really is inevitable. The only question is timing and mechanism. It looks pretty plausible that the 2020s will be the decade collapse starts, with covid19 as a powerful trigger - but it'll take a while. During the decade there might be accelerants such as climate related multiple bread basket failures, famine and/or a significant war.
Interesting that an old-school peak oiler didn't include the one this entire website was built around.

No the end of the oil age does not require a collapse of the economy. There will be a thriving economy for those seeking and providing alternatives to oil..

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 26 Apr 2020, 18:25

Covid continues to surprise, now it's infected Mink and made them ill.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

Post by **clv101** » 26 Apr 2020, 19:36

Catweazle wrote:Covid continues to surprise, now it's infected Mink and made them ill.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

The Netherlands has testing capacity for mink?! While we don't even seem able to rest all the care home staff.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 26 Apr 2020, 19:45

Catweazle wrote:Covid continues to surprise, now it's infected Mink and made them ill.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

The Chinese probably intended to destroy the Western fur farms ... but made a bit of a mess of the virus design.

I hope there aren't even more 'features' awaiting discovery.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 26 Apr 2020, 20:56

Who is still buying mink or other furs?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Apr 2020, 21:01

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-b ... m-52430855

Coronavirus: Birmingham's Nightingale hospital 'has no patients'

This whole situation gets more crazy with every passing day. Hancock tells manufacturers that the government will buy as many ventilators as they can make. So James Dyson throws Â£20m at making ventilators, only to be told that actually, the government no longer needs them. 900 people spend 8 days building a temporary hospital for Covid patients. It has no patients. And yet we are still "locked down", with the government paying people to not work, while small businesses go under, and we're no closer to discovering what is the government's exit strategy from this twilight zone.

This is a dumb outcome. We either needed a proper lockdown, with closed borders, mass testing and contact tracing, in an attempt to exterminate the virus. Or we needed to let the virus run. Rather like brexit, the compromise solution simply doesn't work, but that's exactly what we got. Locked down enough to totally F--k up the economy, but not locked down enough to get the virus under control.