New coronavirus in/from China

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 25 Apr 2020, 21:28

This is on no evidence whatsoever, just wishful thinking. Could a proportion of the population be completely immune to the virus, to the extent that they never make antibodies, because the virus cannot penetrate their cells to start an infection in the first place? If that were true we could be a lot closer to herd immunity than we think. As far as i know the only way to know would be when the virus stops spreading sooner than expected.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 25 Apr 2020, 21:51

PS_RalphW wrote:This is on no evidence whatsoever, just wishful thinking. Could a proportion of the population be completely immune to the virus, to the extent that they never make antibodies, because the virus cannot penetrate their cells to start an infection in the first place? If that were true we could be a lot closer to herd immunity than we think. As far as i know the only way to know would be when the virus stops spreading sooner than expected.

Could be - but I haven't seen any suggestions on this.

Also, NYC has reached 20% antibody levels which might not help your theory.

However we might reach a 'quieter' time when the truly frail have all gone : the care homes etc. That could be quite soon sadly.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Apr 2020, 23:54

Vortex2 wrote: I hope my estimates are total nonsense and that the current wave will subside in a week or so and then we will be back to almost normal without any further fuss.

I would not bet so much as a round of drinks at your favorite pub on that one.
I think back to almost normal is a very long shot But I would happily buy a couple of rounds for the whole pub if that turned out to be the case.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Apr 2020, 01:03

Vortex2 wrote:
Not too sensible as I assume we must be somewhere near the peak of infected people wandering around,

I doubt it. I think we are past that peak, for this wave at least. There's not many people who are currently infected who have no idea they are infected. The million dollar question is how easily and quickly it is likely to take off again as the lockdown deteriorates.

It feels like this country is completely lacking in leadership right now.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 26 Apr 2020, 06:30

Catweazle wrote:We still don't know whether herd immunity is possible.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11975011

Yes folks, this is the first respiratory-disease virus, in the history of breathing animals on the planet, for which natural immunity does not work. If we do not develop a vaccine, the entire planetary population will eventually be killed by this virus, excluding only suicide and murder.

Meanwhile, we are continually assured that the only an answer is a vaccine, which is just another version of herd immunity.... that doesn't work... apparently

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 26 Apr 2020, 10:03

Lock down not effective enough to bring cases down adequately

.. too many cases to switch to containment mode ... so lock-down or similar might last for ages ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... virus-data

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 26 Apr 2020, 11:17

Many of the answers and the limitations are shown in growth data:

https://covidly.com/graph?country=Unite ... dom&state=

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 26 Apr 2020, 11:22

Little John wrote:
Catweazle wrote:We still don't know whether herd immunity is possible.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11975011
Yes folks, this is the first respiratory-disease virus, in the history of breathing animals on the planet, for which natural immunity does not work. If we do not develop a vaccine, the entire planetary population will eventually be killed by this virus, excluding only suicide and murder.

Meanwhile, we are continually assured that the only an answer is a vaccine, which is just another version of herd immunity.... that doesn't work... apparently

I'm not saying that herd immunity isn't possible, I'm saying that we don't know either way. You seem willing to take that gamble by relaxing restrictions, I wouldn't. We can differ on that. With regard to "first....in history...." that's a matter of opinion too. The common cold is an easy example, but consider SARS - an immunity develops but only lasts 3 years on average. Unleashing a virus that could sweep the world every three years might be considered a bad idea.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 26 Apr 2020, 12:28

Cat it does not matter if there will be herd immunity or not. We have to get the economy going again or the economic collapse will be far worse then the pandemic even if we did nothing to mitigate it or slow the spread. It is not like we actually have the disease on a tight leash anyway. It may fade, or not, have second waves or more, and we will have to endure that as well but we cannot fight that unemployed without food to eat or roofs over our heads.

Post by **clv101** » 26 Apr 2020, 12:41

vtsnowedin wrote:Cat it does not matter if there will be herd immunity or not. We have to get the economy going again or the economic collapse will be far worse then the pandemic even if we did nothing to mitigate it or slow the spread.

Indeed, but remember economic collapse is inevitable. We just didn't know exactly when or by what mechanism, until now.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 26 Apr 2020, 12:50

Catweazle wrote:
Little John wrote:
Catweazle wrote:We still don't know whether herd immunity is possible.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11975011
Yes folks, this is the first respiratory-disease virus, in the history of breathing animals on the planet, for which natural immunity does not work. If we do not develop a vaccine, the entire planetary population will eventually be killed by this virus, excluding only suicide and murder.

Meanwhile, we are continually assured that the only an answer is a vaccine, which is just another version of herd immunity.... that doesn't work... apparently
I'm not saying that herd immunity isn't possible, I'm saying that we don't know either way. You seem willing to take that gamble by relaxing restrictions, I wouldn't. We can differ on that. With regard to "first....in history...." that's a matter of opinion too. The common cold is an easy example, but consider SARS - an immunity develops but only lasts 3 years on average. Unleashing a virus that could sweep the world every three years might be considered a bad idea.

There is an evolutionary reason why something like the common cold is very easy to catch and something like HIV is not. You might want to consider why.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 26 Apr 2020, 13:07

Little John wrote:There is an evolutionary reason why something like the common cold is very easy to catch and something like HIV is not. You might want to consider why.

I wonder why you think HIV is hard to catch?

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 26 Apr 2020, 13:38

clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Cat it does not matter if there will be herd immunity or not. We have to get the economy going again or the economic collapse will be far worse then the pandemic even if we did nothing to mitigate it or slow the spread.
Indeed, but remember economic collapse is inevitable. We just didn't know exactly when or by what mechanism, until now.

Agreed. I have been properly planning for this terrible decade for the last 2 or 3 years. The wheels were going to fall off regardless. The virus might change some timings/impacts but the end result will be the same.

I'm pretty sanguine about the virus. I don't believe I can avoid it for ever and I'm not convinced that there will be an effective vaccine. Therefore it's not troubling me unduly. I am using the easing off in current business workload to improve my health and hopefully by association my immune system.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 26 Apr 2020, 13:59

I do not agree that economic collapse is inevitable or that an upheaval in the worlds economic systems could ever be total. There will always be demand and supply and price will balance the two and some medium of exchange will allow the transfers. Imminent collapse is an ongoing theme that never comes to pass.
On another note:

Today the world has reached 203,500 deaths credited to Covid-19 primarily in the last sixty days. That amounts to 3 thousandths of one percent of the worlds population. During that same sixty days births exceeded deaths by more then 12,000,000 new people.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 26 Apr 2020, 14:01

PS_RalphW wrote:This is on no evidence whatsoever, just wishful thinking. Could a proportion of the population be completely immune to the virus, to the extent that they never make antibodies, because the virus cannot penetrate their cells to start an infection in the first place? If that were true we could be a lot closer to herd immunity than we think. As far as i know the only way to know would be when the virus stops spreading sooner than expected.

People have been found with natural immunity to even Ebola and others swear that they have never had flu so there is a probability that there are some with a natural immunity to covid-19. How large that population is is anyone's guess. I wouldn't put money on it being significant.