New coronavirus in/from China

[fuzzy]

One problem of a virus that kills mainly the eldest is that is no way for evolution to eliminate it.

Once its endemic and everyone gets it in their teens and maybe a couple of times more later in life, people will build up some immunity and become old!

I disagree. There are plenty of people who avoid a serious dose through their innate immune system stopping it. Many of these don't have antibodies. Plenty of old people who have antibodies have lethal complications. It is too early to say the antibodies are widely made, last or work.

[Little John]

One problem of a virus that kills mainly the eldest is that is no way for evolution to eliminate it.

Once its endemic and everyone gets it in their teens and maybe a couple of times more later in life, people will build up some immunity and become old!

I disagree. There are plenty of people who avoid a serious dose through their innate immune system stopping it. Many of these don't have antibodies. Plenty of old people who have antibodies have lethal complications. It is too early to say the antibodies are widely made, last or work.

So what's your solution? Keep our economies and people locked down until you have an answer? How long is it going to be before that answer is found?

[Vortex2]

HMG data as at 22 April

As of 9am 22 April, 559,935 tests have concluded, with 22,814 tests carried out on 21 April.

411,192 people have been tested, of whom 133,495 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 21 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 18,100 have died.

Cases up a tad.

Deaths down a tad but still quite high.

No clear sign of a turnaround as yet.

[UndercoverElephant]

I am not expecting anything. I don't know what to expect. I have no idea whether there will ever be an effective treatment or vaccine. Nobody knows. That's the problem.

Precisely. It seems prudent to me to let the experts have a bit more time to work out what it actually does before spreading it more widely than it already is.

Do you think you can basically survive anything that might happen to the economy? Genuine question.

I have spent many years preparing for serious economic disruption. Can I survive "anything"? No, of course not. But I am better placed to survive than most people I know.

[UndercoverElephant]

I am not expecting anything. I don't know what to expect. I have no idea whether there will ever be an effective treatment or vaccine. Nobody knows. That's the problem.

So you are willing to take the very well known consequences to the economy which are indeed catastrophic for fear ,and it is nothing but fear, that the pandemic will be worse if we don't take measures to trash the economy?

I'm not willing anything either. Fortunately, it is not my decision. I'm only responsible for my own life.

What I do know is that I am high risk for this virus. I'm only 51, but I've got the sort of underlying health issues that effectively bumps that up to 65 as far as this virus is concerned.

[fuzzy]

Once its endemic and everyone gets it in their teens and maybe a couple of times more later in life, people will build up some immunity and become old!

I disagree. There are plenty of people who avoid a serious dose through their innate immune system stopping it. Many of these don't have antibodies. Plenty of old people who have antibodies have lethal complications. It is too early to say the antibodies are widely made, last or work.

So what's your solution? Keep our economies and people locked down until you have an answer? How long is it going to be before that answer is found?

I don't know how much it is costing. Gov tax input will be down from no petrol sales, far less VAT and business profits. They were already losing a fortune on tobacco taxes compared to 10 years ago. I don't think lockdown should be long. If they can't get everything in place in the next 3 weeks that they have already declared, maybe another 2 weeks if it essential. After that we will be on our knees and the population cannot be controlled. More important is how they plan the restart in a structured way - wholesalers, brewers, importers etc first, then public sellers. No point in declaring restaurants open if they have nothing to sell. I expect the hospitals to fill every bed then.

[boisdevie]

I disagree. There are plenty of people who avoid a serious dose through their innate immune system stopping it. Many of these don't have antibodies. Plenty of old people who have antibodies have lethal complications. It is too early to say the antibodies are widely made, last or work.

So what's your solution? Keep our economies and people locked down until you have an answer? How long is it going to be before that answer is found?

I don't know how much it is costing. Gov tax input will be down from no petrol sales, far less VAT and business profits. They were already losing a fortune on tobacco taxes compared to 10 years ago. I don't think lockdown should be long. If they can't get everything in place in the next 3 weeks that they have already declared, maybe another 2 weeks if it essential. After that we will be on our knees and the population cannot be controlled. More important is how they plan the restart in a structured way - wholesalers, brewers, importers etc first, then public sellers. No point in declaring restaurants open if they have nothing to sell. I expect the hospitals to fill every bed then.

The government will keep the lockdown and just keep printing more money as though that in itself has no adverse consequences.

[fuzzy]

If it really is topping +8000 a week [bat flu plus consequences] then the gov will be saving a fortune in the long run since state retirement is now such a high age.

[Little John]

Precisely. It seems prudent to me to let the experts have a bit more time to work out what it actually does before spreading it more widely than it already is.

Do you think you can basically survive anything that might happen to the economy? Genuine question.

I have spent many years preparing for serious economic disruption. Can I survive "anything"? No, of course not. But I am better placed to survive than most people I know.

The question was ostensibly addressed to CatWeazle. But, that notwithstanding; have you considered whether your personal capacity to weather any major economic dislocation may be influencing your judgement on this issue more than any broader analysis of what may or may not be the correct course of action to take for the country as a whole?

[UndercoverElephant]

Do you think you can basically survive anything that might happen to the economy? Genuine question.

I have spent many years preparing for serious economic disruption. Can I survive "anything"? No, of course not. But I am better placed to survive than most people I know.

The question was ostensibly addressed to CatWeazle. But, that notwithstanding; have you considered whether your personal capacity to weather any major economic dislocation may be influencing your judgement on this issue more than any broader analysis of what may or may not be the correct course of action to take for the country as a whole?

As I said, I am not judging this issue. I am not offering an opinion on when the lockdown should be lifted, or how. It isn't up to me to make the decision, so I am not wasting any effort trying to resolve the obvious conflict between economic damage and health damage. As ever, what I am really interested in is trying to understand what is happening now and to figure out what is most likely to happen next.

I made a decision to lead the sort of life where even though I don't have much income, I also don't have any debts and have minimal required outgoings. That was a conscious decision precisely because it was always probable that something like this would happen eventually. Many other people who could have done something similar decided instead to move to a larger house or buy a nicer car, and have loans to repay as a result. My sympathy for those people is limited. Other people were never in a position to buy a house or a nice car, but those people will always be the first to be f***ed whenever something bad happened. Maybe they will revolt. If so, I'll be on their side.

[Catweazle]

I am not expecting anything. I don't know what to expect. I have no idea whether there will ever be an effective treatment or vaccine. Nobody knows. That's the problem.

Precisely. It seems prudent to me to let the experts have a bit more time to work out what it actually does before spreading it more widely than it already is.

Do you think you can basically survive anything that might happen to the economy? Genuine question.

Yes, I probably can, and I understand how that affects my opinion of what we should do. Doesn't everyones personal circumstance affect how they think we should proceed ?

Nevertheless, I have family and friends who are unable to survive anything the economy can do and my resources won't cover them all, so my opinions aren't totally self-centred. My parents are in their 80's and I worry for them. My grandchildren are infants and I worry for them.

[Little John]

Precisely. It seems prudent to me to let the experts have a bit more time to work out what it actually does before spreading it more widely than it already is.

Do you think you can basically survive anything that might happen to the economy? Genuine question.

Yes, I probably can, and I understand how that affects my opinion of what we should do. Doesn't everyones personal circumstance affect how they think we should proceed ?

Nevertheless, I have family and friends who are unable to survive anything the economy can do and my resources won't cover them all, so my opinions aren't totally self-centred. My parents are in their 80's and I worry for them. My grandchildren are infants and I worry for them.

Generally speaking, I try to assiduously avoid my personal circumstances influencing how I think about issues like this precisely because I want my opinion to be formed on the logic and evidence of the issue and not my own personal emotional or economic well being. From a strictly personal perspective, due to my age and certain comorbidities that my wife and I have, over the short to medium term my personal interests are best served by a total lock down till a vaccine is developed. I also have a paraplegic elder sister, a diabetic elder brother and an elderly father, all three of whom would die, sure as shit, if they get it.

But, from the perspective of my kids, this lockdown is a disaster the longer it goes on. It is they and their kids and their kid's kid's and the rest of their generation who will be paying the price for this - not least in shortened lifespans for themselves due to the privatizations to come. Then, of course, there is the larger, urban working class of this country, who must live from pay cheque to pay cheque who will be economically f***ed. As usual.

As it happens, my wife, my sister, my brother and my father agree with me. The fact we are all UK "rust belt" working class may well have something to do with that, I freely admit.

[clv101]

I made a decision to lead the sort of life where even though I don't have much income, I also don't have any debts and have minimal required outgoings. That was a conscious decision precisely because it was always probable that something like this would happen eventually.

Absolutely, same here. The "get out of debt", minimise essential outgoings has been the most sensible aspect of prepping. It's been our agenda for some 15 yrs! That *most* people spend every penny (or more!) that they earn, irrespective of how much they earn, is a significant contribution to the fragility of modern society.

[clv101]

I think the lockdown is breaking down, the behavioural scientists were right. An NHS friend in London shared some photos of her morning bus ride. Lower deck *full*, photo from upstairs shows street packed again, normality.

[adam2]

I think the lockdown is breaking down, the behavioural scientists were right. An NHS friend in London shared some photos of her morning bus ride. Lower deck *full*, photo from upstairs shows street packed again, normality.

That has also been my observations, here in Worzleshire.
And no, I have not been out to observe but base my remarks on viewing webcams.

I also hear anecdotal reports of more pubs opening via the back door.
And of other evasions.