New coronavirus in/from China

[adam2]

Total failure of leadership, again. No joined up thinking from government.

If this were an approaching asteroid, we would have unified teams of scientist, mathematicians, politicians etc all working together to solve the problem.

The public would have to be on board too - perhaps with a bit of persuasion from the police and military.

How come we can't do the same for this bug?

I doubt it.
If an asteroid was approaching dangerously, I would expect the reactions to include the following.

Vote for me and it will be OK.
If you had previously voted for me, we would not be in this position.
Strong prayer will overcome.
It is all a scam to further oppress the workers.
It is a foreign plan to destabilise our nation.
Fake news.
It is divine retribution for allowing abortion/gay marriage/women clergy.
Really it is a plan by the "deep state" to take power.
Caused by people ignoring God. Kill all non believers.
Go in, tune in, stay in.

[Vortex2]

Mask-up when going out ...

My data very roughly hints that if you go out and work closely with one person you have a 95% of staying healthy.

However if you work closely with 5 or more people then the risk reaches 25% of infection or worse.

Is that working on an assumed infectious period? 14-21 days being as some of those infected are likely no longer infectious? I'd presume Peak Infections would have been a couple of days after the lockdown, as the spread would have continued within households, and then to a lesser extent in risky environments, such as hospitals, tube trains and care homes. And that things are now slowly getting safer. But a long time yet before I venture out, other than dog walking / allotment.

When I say rough I mean rough .. possibly more cases out there than my 8.3 factor but some now no longer infectious.

[Vortex2]

HMG data as at 20th April

As of 9am 20 April, 501,379 tests have concluded, with 19,316 tests carried out on 19 April.

386,044 people have been tested, of whom 124,743 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 19 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 16,509 have died.

Looks like daily deaths plateaued until two days ago and are now dropping ... maybe.

[Initiation]

Left home first thing this morning, first time for 2.5 weeks. Wow, the roads at 8am were busy! And supermarket carpark half full. UK's lockdown looks poor from my experience today.

At that time you were butting in on the old folks and NHS reserved time so no surprise that the roads were busy especially if it is around a supermarket. Whenever I have been out, mostly in the evening during what would have been rush hour, our roads have been almost empty even around the local large Tesco.

Should have been well before them, I was gone by 8:15 and priority period isn't until 9am.

I'm sure others will have looked at you driving your vehicle and thought 'ah, someone else who should have stayed at home'

Contrary popular to opinion, there are still lots of people going to work (as they are rightly advised to do), things being delivered etc... Everyone needs to go to the shops, people to the pharmacy. We are permitted to drive a short distance to a place of exercise.

Having been at several times throughout the day, supermarkets do now seem to be busier first thing. It's also good that the supermarket is half full, rather than empty early on leading to a huge spike in people later in the day attending.

[vtsnowedin]

HMG data as at 20th April

As of 9am 20 April, 501,379 tests have concluded, with 19,316 tests carried out on 19 April.

386,044 people have been tested, of whom 124,743 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 19 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 16,509 have died.

Looks like daily deaths plateaued until two days ago and are now dropping ... maybe.

I doubt that for now. New cases plateaued at about 5500 per day starting two weeks ago. With the CFR you have been experiencing that would indicate about 750 deaths per day for the next two weeks then the trend in deaths will follow whatever happens to new cases from today forward.

[Vortex2]

HMG data as at 20th April

As of 9am 20 April, 501,379 tests have concluded, with 19,316 tests carried out on 19 April.

386,044 people have been tested, of whom 124,743 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 19 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 16,509 have died.

Looks like daily deaths plateaued until two days ago and are now dropping ... maybe.

I doubt that for now. New cases plateaued at about 5500 per day starting two weeks ago. With the CFR you have been experiencing that would indicate about 750 deaths per day for the next two weeks then the trend in deaths will follow whatever happens to new cases from today forward.

No doubt you are right.

When this wave is over we will have an idea of what to expect with the next N waves.

[UndercoverElephant]

HMG data as at 20th April

As of 9am 20 April, 501,379 tests have concluded, with 19,316 tests carried out on 19 April.

386,044 people have been tested, of whom 124,743 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 19 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 16,509 have died.

Looks like daily deaths plateaued until two days ago and are now dropping ... maybe.

Yes, and those massive new temporary hospitals are nowhere near full. There is going to be a start to the lifting of the lockdown in 3 weeks I think.

[Little John]

West Texas just fell off a cliff

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... 7405578612

War, famine, pestilence and disease (we already have that one covered) heading this way fast

[clv101]

West Texas just fell off a cliff

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... 7405578612

War, famine, pestilence and disease (we already have that one covered) heading this way fast

Indeed, interesting times:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/20 ... imploding/

[clv101]

HMG data as at 20th April

As of 9am 20 April, 501,379 tests have concluded, with 19,316 tests carried out on 19 April.

386,044 people have been tested, of whom 124,743 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 19 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 16,509 have died.

Looks like daily deaths plateaued until two days ago and are now dropping ... maybe.

Yes, and those massive new temporary hospitals are nowhere near full. There is going to be a start to the lifting of the lockdown in 3 weeks I think.

Yes, the lockdown, and the reluctance to move COVID patients from care homes to hospital has protected NHS, prevented intensive care being overwhelmed.

However, there is a LOT of elective stuff is not happening, and a lot of diagnosis of other stuff is not happening. A few months from now we're going to see a lot of secondary fallout from late diagnosis. Even if we never reach a 2nd peak anything like this one (which is probable, if we're smart about it), the NHS is going to have a hell of a time catching up.

[Lord Beria3]

http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/lo ... ronavirus/

Interesting analysis.

[Vortex2]

WHO - yes, them - confirm fewer than 2%-3% have antibodies

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... t-symptoms

[Vortex2]

LA study finds around 4.1% antibody prevalence.

As usual, instead of noting how much fuel the virus has remaining, they waffle on about the reported/unreported infection ratio.

"Though the results indicate a lower risk of death among those with infection than was previously thought, the number of COVID-related deaths each day continues to mount"

... err, OK

(There is also a big question about excessive false positives with these quick tests)

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/ph ... ?prid=2328

[kenneal - lagger]

Trump seems to be changing direction again and backing down before Cuomo's visit to the White House. Will his supporters even notice?

[Vortex2]

Martenson nukes Stanford study

I think that the authors of the study will need to hide under a rock for the rest of their careers ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Pv77R3g1E