New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Apr 2020, 10:18

Mask-up when going out ...

My data very roughly hints that if you go out and work closely with one person you have a 95% of staying healthy.

However if you work closely with 5 or more people then the risk reaches 25% of infection or worse.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Apr 2020, 10:19

fuzzy wrote:If there is a website like the T graff that tries to bother screen you into signing/paying, try right mouse clicking on the main part and 'view source code'. The whole code for the page will have the text somewhere in the middle.

You could also save the web page on your PC and rename it as *.txt or *.rtf so that some reading software just opens it the same as above.

Whenever I do that I am always pleased I didn't sign up for something when I see how pointless it was.

To view the Teleg just turn off Javascript. Simplez.

(You can use the Disable JavaScript extension with Firefox or Chrome to automate this)

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Apr 2020, 10:37

I enjoyed this latest Martenson video on the economic situation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vqe0zsBVCI

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Apr 2020, 11:12

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Widespread antibody testing in a Californian county has revealed a much higher prevalence of coronavirus infection than official figures suggested. The findings also indicate that the virus is less deadly than current estimates of global case and death counts suggest.

Told you so.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 20 Apr 2020, 11:51

Ambrose disagrees

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... pandemic1/

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Apr 2020, 12:12

UndercoverElephant wrote:https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Widespread antibody testing in a Californian county has revealed a much higher prevalence of coronavirus infection than official figures suggested. The findings also indicate that the virus is less deadly than current estimates of global case and death counts suggest.
Told you so.

I - and others - have already critiqued this ... they found a 1.5% immunity figure ... lower than in the UK. They then 'adjusted' the figures for the phase of the moon and the number of probable transvestites in the sample.

They key result as far as I am concerned is that it has NOT spread widely in the community, so we have several waves ... or a painful trickle... to follow until we can have a vaccination.

The three highest incidence figures I have seen are 15% (German hot sport), 15% (NYC hot spot) and 12.5% (US warship). Austria reports 1%, Holland 3% and the UK either 2.7% or 4%.

So in essence we have killed the economy and had 1000s of deaths for a tiny sliver of infections in the population.

I suspect that various Professors are seeking their 15 minutes of fame by publishing 'startling' papers.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Apr 2020, 12:18

Left home first thing this morning, first time for 2.5 weeks. Wow, the roads at 8am were busy! And supermarket carpark half full. UK's lockdown looks poor from my experience today.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Apr 2020, 12:20

Vortex2 wrote:They key result as far as I am concerned is that it has NOT spread widely in the community, so we have several waves ... or a painful trickle... to follow until we can have a vaccination.

Agreed, these recent studies do not support the Oxford model of millions of cases a month+ ago.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Apr 2020, 12:30

stumuz1 wrote:Ambrose disagrees

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... pandemic1/

here's the page without having to sign up...

https://archive.vn/Lb5V4

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Apr 2020, 12:36

Whatever the lock-down regulations in place, road traffic volume has increased round here in the last week noticeably. Also, our local bakery has reopened. Wherever the lock-down regulations even remotely allow for it, people are starting to vote with their feet, clearly.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 20 Apr 2020, 13:51

Vortex2 wrote:Mask-up when going out ...

My data very roughly hints that if you go out and work closely with one person you have a 95% of staying healthy.

However if you work closely with 5 or more people then the risk reaches 25% of infection or worse.

Is that working on an assumed infectious period? 14-21 days being as some of those infected are likely no longer infectious? I'd presume Peak Infections would have been a couple of days after the lockdown, as the spread would have continued within households, and then to a lesser extent in risky environments, such as hospitals, tube trains and care homes. And that things are now slowly getting safer. But a long time yet before I venture out, other than dog walking / allotment.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 20 Apr 2020, 14:06

UndercoverElephant wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 69476.html

Milk thrown down the drain while millions go hungry: Lockdown puts increasing strain on Britainâ€™s food system
And

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 66571.html

It's bizarre. We (in both UK and US) facing a potential crisis with respect to food imports, and yet we're throwing away domestically-produced food because the internal supply chains are disrupted.

Total failure of leadership, again. No joined up thinking from government.

Farmers have limited space to store milk, house cattle or piglets and limited food supplies for live animals. If the person who is due to take the milk from them or the weaners or the porkers doesn't turn up the farmer has to get rid of them somehow because he has a production line which it is very difficult to stop. If stopped it could take a year to get it going again.

The supermarkets have imposed a just in time delivery mode on the industry with very little intermediate buffer storage in it so if the supermarkets cock things up it runs back down the chain and the poor old farmer takes the hit again having to poor his milk, or whatever down the drain. The government has very little to do with it and hasn't since the infamous butter mountains of the 70s which non farming people like you lot got so incensed by.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 20 Apr 2020, 14:20

clv101 wrote:Left home first thing this morning, first time for 2.5 weeks. Wow, the roads at 8am were busy! And supermarket carpark half full. UK's lockdown looks poor from my experience today.

At that time you were butting in on the old folks and NHS reserved time so no surprise that the roads were busy especially if it is around a supermarket. Whenever I have been out, mostly in the evening during what would have been rush hour, our roads have been almost empty even around the local large Tesco.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 20 Apr 2020, 14:23

Little John wrote:Whatever the lock-down regulations in place, road traffic volume has increased round here in the last week noticeably. Also, our local bakery has reopened. Wherever the lock-down regulations even remotely allow for it, people are starting to vote with their feet, clearly.

Which is precisely why government advisors were reluctant to order a lock down too soon.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Apr 2020, 15:20

kenneal - lagger wrote:
clv101 wrote:Left home first thing this morning, first time for 2.5 weeks. Wow, the roads at 8am were busy! And supermarket carpark half full. UK's lockdown looks poor from my experience today.
At that time you were butting in on the old folks and NHS reserved time so no surprise that the roads were busy especially if it is around a supermarket. Whenever I have been out, mostly in the evening during what would have been rush hour, our roads have been almost empty even around the local large Tesco.

Should have been well before them, I was gone by 8:15 and priority period isn't until 9am.