New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 19 Apr 2020, 18:04

Deaths data ... puzzlement ..

I decided to take 3-day averages from the published deaths data in order to provide a smoothed input into my regression tools.

I then noticed that the recent published data follows a very even track at the 3-sample average level.

I suppose that this is a natural result of measurement of natural processes ...

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 19 Apr 2020, 18:29

Vortex2 wrote:Deaths data ... puzzlement ..

I decided to take 3-day averages from the published deaths data in order to provide a smoothed input into my regression tools.

I then noticed that the recent published data follows a very even track at the 3-sample average level.

I suppose that this is a natural result of measurement of natural processes ...

I'd suggest seven to ten day averages to get by the weekend under reporting Monday Tuesday catch up cycle that is pretty clear to see.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Apr 2020, 20:17

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 69476.html

Milk thrown down the drain while millions go hungry: Lockdown puts increasing strain on Britainâ€™s food system

And

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 66571.html

It's bizarre. We (in both UK and US) facing a potential crisis with respect to food imports, and yet we're throwing away domestically-produced food because the internal supply chains are disrupted.

Total failure of leadership, again. No joined up thinking from government.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 19 Apr 2020, 22:28

Total failure of leadership, again. No joined up thinking from government.

If this were an approaching asteroid, we would have unified teams of scientist, mathematicians, politicians etc all working together to solve the problem.

The public would have to be on board too - perhaps with a bit of persuasion from the police and military.

How come we can't do the same for this bug?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Apr 2020, 22:50

Vortex2 wrote:
How come we can't do the same for this bug?

Just imagine how easy this problem was to solve in China.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Apr 2020, 06:30

Is it solved in China? What do you mean by solved?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... e-lockdown

Post by **clv101** » 20 Apr 2020, 07:07

If anyone hasn't managed to read the weekend's Times article, it's available here:

https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Apr 2020, 07:41

clv101 wrote:If anyone hasn't managed to read the weekend's Times article, it's available here:

https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

That's a hell of a website CLV. Cheers.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Apr 2020, 08:23

clv101 wrote:If anyone hasn't managed to read the weekend's Times article, it's available here:

https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh

A bit difficult to access:

* has a bad certificate
* then Forbidden 403

I needed to used Tor to reach it.
* needs a Captcha

However well worth the effort.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Apr 2020, 08:33

Your ISP is blocking it.

Yep, use Tor or, better still, a VPN

I use Airvpn

https://airvpn.org/

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Apr 2020, 08:37

Little John wrote:Is it solved in China? What do you mean by solved?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... e-lockdown

That's a different problem. I was talking about redirecting food from one supply chain to another. China can do that easily.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Apr 2020, 08:47

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:Is it solved in China? What do you mean by solved?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... e-lockdown
That's a different problem. I was talking about redirecting food from one supply chain to another. China can do that easily.

Ah yes. I agree with that.

It seems pretty clear that free market societies do not cope well at all when faced with existential systemic crises. Or, at least, in terms of these kinds of logistics.

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » 20 Apr 2020, 09:40

Vortex2 wrote:
clv101 wrote:If anyone hasn't managed to read the weekend's Times article, it's available here:

https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh
A bit difficult to access:

* has a bad certificate
* then Forbidden 403

I needed to used Tor to reach it.
* needs a Captcha

However well worth the effort.

Nice site. Worked for me first time on a VPN. I don't expect it to last for long if it is costing a big news organisation a lot of money.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 20 Apr 2020, 10:06

BritDownUnder wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
clv101 wrote:If anyone hasn't managed to read the weekend's Times article, it's available here:

https://archive.is/20200418182037/https ... -hq3b9tlgh
A bit difficult to access:

* has a bad certificate
* then Forbidden 403

I needed to used Tor to reach it.
* needs a Captcha

However well worth the effort.
Nice site. Worked for me first time on a VPN. I don't expect it to last for long if it is costing a big news organisation a lot of money.

Nah .. places like that won't lose the firms any money ... too few people will use the technique and those people wouldn't pay anyway.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 20 Apr 2020, 10:08

If there is a website like the T graff that tries to bother screen you into signing/paying, try right mouse clicking on the main part and 'view source code'. The whole code for the page will have the text somewhere in the middle.

You could also save the web page on your PC and rename it as *.txt or *.rtf so that some reading software just opens it the same as above.

Whenever I do that I am always pleased I didn't sign up for something when I see how pointless it was.