New coronavirus in/from China

[Vortex2]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

Just imagine they can't make a vaccine work.

So what would happen?

By then we would have gone back to work (mostly).

At some point we will get used to people getting sick, with a few dying.

Firms will readjust - every worker will have a 'standin' or 'buddy' who can take over his/her role in an emergency.

All workers will need to keep detailed open records which can be accessed in emergency.

Skilled loners working in a dark corner will no longer be allowed.

Outsourcing to one or two person firms might be less common.

Remote work will remain important - with the supporting technologies being improved.

As noted earlier, a fair chunk of the population will become more cautious/reclusive.

Office space/public spaces/transport systems will become more conducive to 'separation'.

Working hours could be staggered to reduce densities on public transport and in public spaces.

If immunity only lasts a few months we might have to get used to this illness being a permanent feature.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

Just imagine they can't make a vaccine work.

So what would happen?

By then we would have gone back to work (mostly).

At some point we will get used to people getting sick, with a few dying.

Firms will readjust - every worker will have a 'standin' or 'buddy' who can take over his/her role in an emergency.

All workers will need to keep detailed open records which can be accessed in emergency.

Skilled loners working in a dark corner will no longer be allowed.

Outsourcing to one or two person firms might be less common.

Remote work will remain important - with the supporting technologies being improved.

As noted earlier, a fair chunk of the population will become more cautious/reclusive.

Office space/public spaces/transport systems will become more conducive to 'separation'.

Working hours could be staggered to reduce densities on public transport and in public spaces.

If immunity only lasts a few months we might have to get used to this illness being a permanent feature.

...and the economy would be a smouldering ruin.

[Vortex2]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

Just imagine they can't make a vaccine work.

So what would happen?

By then we would have gone back to work (mostly).

At some point we will get used to people getting sick, with a few dying.

Firms will readjust - every worker will have a 'standin' or 'buddy' who can take over his/her role in an emergency.

All workers will need to keep detailed open records which can be accessed in emergency.

Skilled loners working in a dark corner will no longer be allowed.

Outsourcing to one or two person firms might be less common.

Remote work will remain important - with the supporting technologies being improved.

As noted earlier, a fair chunk of the population will become more cautious/reclusive.

Office space/public spaces/transport systems will become more conducive to 'separation'.

Working hours could be staggered to reduce densities on public transport and in public spaces.

If immunity only lasts a few months we might have to get used to this illness being a permanent feature.

...and the economy would be a smouldering ruin.

I'm more optimistic. There are plenty of energetic, skilled, hard working people around who are .. and will probably remain .. healthy.

They will see opportunities and will build an economic framework around them.

[stumuz1]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -hq3b9tlgh

Is this one of the most damning articles ever written about the British government? In The Times, no less. Can a charge of criminal negligence be brought against members of the cabinet?

This is what I mean by incompetence. The day *before* that COBRA meeting was my birthday, we had a social gathering, where many of my friends learned about the potential threat of virus they hadn't heard of. And the government's line, nothing to see here, low risk etc.

The UK's scientists, advising the Government, said the risk was low. It would be a brave Minister who disregarded their scientists advice.

Imagine the scene,

"Matt Hancock saying, I'm closing the country down which will cause economic misery because I want to be really cautious"

We had been here before with SARS, same sort of R0, CFR 9.6%, we did not shut down the world. I have brought the SARS analogy up before but it seems to be dismissed because it was a novel Chinese virus, which jumped species and killed people and spread around the world.

The times article is classic black swan, an extreme impact of a rare and unpredictable outlier event — and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events.

When I was spending January in Tenerife, I did not read in the Times or any other Paper about the world shutting down, or fiscal armageddon, or half the world will be in lockdown within 7 weeks. Why? Because it was a novel Chinese virus, which jumped species and killed people and was spreading around the world, just like SARS, MERS.

This is exactly like 9/11. No one saw it coming, yet everyone had a theory of how they saw it coming afterwards.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

No one saw it coming, yet everyone had a theory of how they saw it coming afterwards.

We bloody well saw it! Some of us before Wuhan was shut down. And the govt has a few more sources of information than we do.

[clv101]

We had been here before with SARS, same sort of R0, CFR 9.6%, we did not shut down the world. I have brought the SARS analogy up before but it seems to be dismissed because it was a novel Chinese virus, which jumped species and killed people and spread around the world.

Your SARS analogy is a nonsense. Just spend half an hour reading the literature. For example https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5.pdf
44% of COVID19 transmission occurs when presymptomatic, compare with SARS: "SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) was notable, because infectiousness increased around 7–10 days after symptom onset"

The times article is classic black swan, an extreme impact of a rare and unpredictable outlier event — and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events.

Again, nonsense. Have you even read Taleb, he discusses viral pandemic specifically, not a black swan. Viral pandemic is well understood, modelled, war gamed, has been at the top of government National Risk Register for years. The very definition of not being a black swan. Those trying to make out that it was are those trying to cover for their incompetence in preparation for a clearly expected event. Also see Cygnus where the impacts (and shortcomings) of the NHS where accuracy discovered.

[stumuz1]

Your SARS analogy is a nonsense.

I don't think it is Chris. SARS was a novel killer virus from China. You or anyone else I recall were not saying shut the world down, there is a new virus.

Again, nonsense. Have you even read Taleb,

Yes.

He discusses viral pandemic specifically, not a black swan. Viral pandemic is well understood, modelled, war gamed, has been at the top of government National Risk Register for years. The very definition of not being a black swan.

Of course viral pandemics are understood and modelled, like they were in 2001, 2002, 2004.

That is why most governments in world sat back on their laurels and thought it would go away like they have before, but this virus behaved differently..... then boom! Classic black swan.

Those trying to make out that it was are those trying to cover for their incompetence in preparation for a clearly expected event. Also see Cygnus where the impacts (and shortcomings) of the NHS where accuracy discovered.

That's just political fluff, which doesn't bring anything to the party.

Maybe we could sign post the best youtube videos for the best diy facemask? Instead of barely disguised hatred of anything Oxford PPE?

[stumuz1]

No one saw it coming, yet everyone had a theory of how they saw it coming afterwards.

We bloody well saw it! Some of us before Wuhan was shut down. And the govt has a few more sources of information than we do.

Can you point out the page number of the thread where you advocated shutting down industry, all commerce, all social gatherings, pubs, restaurants?

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

No one saw it coming, yet everyone had a theory of how they saw it coming afterwards.

We bloody well saw it! Some of us before Wuhan was shut down. And the govt has a few more sources of information than we do.

Can you point out the page number of the thread where you advocated shutting down industry, all commerce, all social gatherings, pubs, restaurants?

You might recall in early March I was getting very irate with the Kennel Club for running Crufts. If large gatherings like that and the Gold Cup and Footy had been scrubbed, we'd probably be in a lot better shape now. And the smaller gatherings maybe two weeks prior would have helped avoid thousands of deaths.

I stopped attending a local club some 25-30 strong on the 19th Feb. (Then fell out with them when they carried on meeting up to 18th March) Last time I went to a quiet restaurant was 9th March and it felt a bit dicey even then.

Even now, not 'all industry' and 'all commerce' are closed. Just the discretionary side. Doubt if I'll venture out for anything other than major food shops and DIY items (once those stores are reopened) over the next couple of years. Which has been close to my normal routine, lucky me.

[Vortex2]

HMG data as at 19th April

As of 9am 19 April, 482,063 tests have concluded, with 21,626 tests on 18 April.

372,967 people have been tested of which 120,067 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 18 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 16,060 have sadly died.

My predicted case count was close, biut I expected a tad more deaths.

[fuzzy]

Even now, not 'all industry' and 'all commerce' are closed.

And the 15000 air passengers per day. Plus the boat people and the chunnel rat run.

[stumuz1]

We bloody well saw it! Some of us before Wuhan was shut down. And the govt has a few more sources of information than we do.

Can you point out the page number of the thread where you advocated shutting down industry, all commerce, all social gatherings, pubs, restaurants?

You might recall in early March I was getting very irate with the Kennel Club for running Crufts. If large gatherings like that and the Gold Cup and Footy had been scrubbed, we'd probably be in a lot better shape now. And the smaller gatherings maybe two weeks prior would have helped avoid thousands of deaths.


I stopped attending a local club some 25-30 strong on the 19th Feb. (Then fell out with them when they carried on meeting up to 18th March) Last time I went to a quiet restaurant was 9th March and it felt a bit dicey even then.

Even now, not 'all industry' and 'all commerce' are closed. Just the discretionary side. Doubt if I'll venture out for anything other than major food shops and DIY items (once those stores are reopened) over the next couple of years. Which has been close to my normal routine, lucky me.

OK, So no calling for the almost complete shutdown of the economy. The biggest hit to GDP since 1709. No calling for all pubs/ restaurants/schools/ all forms of normal life to be closed. The invoice to be sent to the grand kids?

No.

You are not alone. After WW1 every talking head and academic explained why WW1 had occurred and why the outcome so catastrophic.

Not one of them had done so the year before the war started.

[Vortex2]

Interesting article about antibody testing.

It seems that huge numbers of false positives are possible.

"Don’t seek out a test because you want to know if you can go hang out with other friends who tested positive. Don’t make employees take tests to find out if it’s safe for them to come back to work. The results just can’t tell you that information at this time."

https://medium.com/@liketortilla/can-yo ... e438b9bd4c

(The article also confirms that 14% max of any population is likely to be immune .. so the Oxford theory is still dead in the water)

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

OK, So no calling for the almost complete shutdown of the economy. The biggest hit to GDP since 1709. No calling for all pubs/ restaurants/schools/ all forms of normal life to be closed.

Had a range of reasonable but painful controls been imposed AHEAD OF TIME to eliminate optional crowds and quarantine arrivals, the near complete shutdown could have been avoided. As it was, the nettle wasn't grasped at the optimum time - 'when it felt too early' - and thus extreme measures and many thousands of avoidable deaths have followed.

Neil Peart (Rush) -

'If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice'

[fuzzy]

I don't see who we can blame yet. Of course, some things could have been better. Lots of people have spent 3 years trying to sabotage brexit. If that hadn't been in January, maybe decisions might have been different. Had we been locked down earlier people would have been more annoyed. Maybe bat-flu is on our post and food? Our surgical masks? All our spanish veg? Maybe it was here in January? It will be interesting to learn afterwards.

Here you go:

https://www.avianflutalk.com/us-knew-in ... 42532.html