New coronavirus in/from China

[boisdevie]

They had the date from other countries - they knew who would be the most vulnerable but rather that just protecting this group they put everyone in quarantine thereby f***ing up the economy way harder than Hitler ever managed. They make Coco the Clown look like an intellectual.

So you are saying the lockdown is wrong?

Yes, that's precisely what I'm saying. Isolate those who if they get it would die/need serious hospital intervention and for everyone else who won't die or need hospital intervention let them get the virus and let's get to herd immunity asap.
You do realise what incredible damage this lockdown is causing the UK and global economy? A depression worse than the great depression will cause untold pain and suffering and the idea that we'll just bounce back is hope based on no actual evidence.

[stumuz1]

So why has almost every country gone into lockdown, including uber capitalist USA?

[boisdevie]

So why has almost every country gone into lockdown, including uber capitalist USA?

I don't know but why don't you actually debate the point i made and point out where my logic fails. Please.

[Vortex2]

So why has almost every country gone into lockdown, including uber capitalist USA?

With more data, more technically oriented politicians, more 'systems thinking' and a population which actually did what they were asked to do there could/would be an optimal solution ... but life's not like that.

[stumuz1]

So why has almost every country gone into lockdown, including uber capitalist USA?

I don't know but why don't you actually debate the point i made and point out where my logic fails. Please.

Could you repeat the point please? It's very well hidden.

[stumuz1]

With more data, more technically oriented politicians, more 'systems thinking' and a population which actually did what they were asked to do there could/would be an optimal solution ... but life's not like that.

Would you have locked down the country in 2003 when SARS broke out? It had the same R0 according to wiki.

[boisdevie]

So why has almost every country gone into lockdown, including uber capitalist USA?

I don't know but why don't you actually debate the point i made and point out where my logic fails. Please.

Could you repeat the point please? It's very well hidden.

1. Identify the most vulnerable and help them to isolate.
2. Let everyone else who statistically won't need the NHS and won't die just get on with it, get the virus, survive the virus and we get to herd immunity.

Is that simple enough for you and it wasn't 'well hidden' - you're being obtuse. Now pick apart my logic.

[Mark]

The bluff and spin can work when the economy is on the up, but is wholly inadequate when TSHTF. They get revealed to be the incompetent charlatans they are.

Incompetent? Let's use your logic of closing down the economy in February when we first knew of the virus. Yes we would have better outcomes now in terms of spread and deaths.

But let us apply this logic to the SARS outbreak. You would have closed the economy, sent the grandchildren the massive bill of lost prosperity and prospects. The same for MERS and the same for Swineflu.

Result a third world disfunctional country, because of a destroyed economy.

A ppe education would send you down the reasonably foreseeable route, i.e objectively a novel virus has come out of Asia. What happened last time?

HMG can't deny that 'Risk of Pandemic' has been top of the National Risk Register for 10+ years and the #1 priority of any government is to protect its people ?
Think I read on here that Jeremy Hunt chaired a Cabinet 'War Game' on it, which is a big positive.
However, HMG Policy was still to cut funding for the NHS and Public Health, stopping provision of bursaries for training nurses, failing to stockpile PPE/Equipment etc. etc.
It's all about priorities, and unfortunately this wasn't one - probably partly because Politicians (of all colours) are conditioned to only think in electoral cycles.
In fact, the ONLY priority for the last 3/4 years has been Brexit.

In terms of this outbreak, we had the massive advantage of seeing what was happening in China, Italy, Spain etc. We could see that the virus was more easily transmitted than SARS/MERS/Swine Flu and how China and maybe S. Korea got on top of things.

If a PPE education sends you down the reasonably foreseeable route, they must have been sleeping for a few weeks.... I know that hindsight is a wonderful thing, but plenty of the more practically minded on here could see what was happening, what needed doing, and when.... Lots of examples, but the one that stands out for me was allowing the flights continue, with not even any testing/quarantine for passengers...

On the positive side, I think the speed in which the Nightingale Hospitals have been set up has been amazing.

[stumuz1]

1. Identify the most vulnerable and help them to isolate.

The obese, diabetics, pre-existing conditions, men, and don't forget the old. In fact, the chances of dieing from covid-19 increases with every seven years of age (Prof Spiegelhater, Cambridge)

Pretty much most of the population will fit your' most vulnerable'. So not very helpful.

2. Let everyone else who statistically won't need the NHS and won't die just get on with it, get the virus, survive the virus and we get to herd immunity.

As can be seen from 1/ most people have a vulnerability to covid-19. Therefore, the NHS would be overwhelmed.

So not very helpful.

Is that simple enough for you and it wasn't 'well hidden' - you're being obtuse. Now pick apart my logic.

A bit too simple.

[stumuz1]

On the positive side, I think the speed in which the Nightingale Hospitals have been set up has been amazing.

Same question for you Mark,
Would you have locked down the country in 2003 when SARS broke out? It had the same R0 according to wiki.

[boisdevie]

2. Let everyone else who statistically won't need the NHS and won't die just get on with it, get the virus, survive the virus and we get to herd immunity.

As can be seen from 1/ most people have a vulnerability to covid-19. Therefore, the NHS would be overwhelmed.

Complete crap. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743
The old, particularly those with one or more comorbidities are most vulnerable so your assumption that the NHS would be overwhelmed is complete bollocks.

[vtsnowedin]

Pretty much most of the population will fit your' most vulnerable'. So not very helpful.

I doubt that very much. The UK has about 6 percent of the population with diabetes and 7 percent morbidly obese and much of one group is also in the other. Add in all the other factors and possibilities and perhaps you get to 25 percent of the total population and much less of the younger working population.

[Mark]

1. Identify the most vulnerable and help them to isolate.
2. Let everyone else who statistically won't need the NHS and won't die just get on with it, get the virus, survive the virus and we get to herd immunity.

Is that simple enough for you and it wasn't 'well hidden' - you're being obtuse. Now pick apart my logic.

Point 1
OK, we only 'lock down' everybody over 60(?), those with diabetes, heart disease, COPD......., there's also increasing evidence of greater vulnerability in certain ethnic communities - add them in too ?
Total guess - 10 million people ?
However, they'd still need looking after by their family/friends/carers
Have we got enough 'help' to support this number ??

Point 2
A significant number of people who are not considered 'vulnerable' will still get it, and quicker. Even if they don't die, many will still be left with life changing conditions.
This approach would also likely overwhelm the NHS. Once this is over, it might be nice to have some Doctors, Nurses and Care Workers that are still alive ?

[stumuz1]

The old, particularly those with one or more comorbidities are most vulnerable so your assumption that the NHS would be overwhelmed is complete bollocks.

Are so only the 'most vulnerable' get looked after. I get yer.

[fuzzy]

There really isn't an answer that is practical to politics and media coverage. However you argue the maths, there are 'millions' in the UK who will be ill, infectious, use medical resources or die faster. This will overwhelm society in some way unless we can slow it to a snails pace for years which cannot happen. Maybe they are hoping in a few weeks they can drop the infections back to the case and cluster range and then contact trace outbreaks [ebola style]. This could only work if you close borders which the UK leaders won't do.