Little John wrote:I cant see what all the noise and fury is about a test to see if someone currently has the virus. All that does is provide a momentary snapshot. A person could go on to contract the virus 5 minutes after the test. So, what value has such a test got in terms of managing this virus?
The only test that would have any value is an antibody test that shows if some has already had the virus and has immunity.
That won't be many.
The main German hotspot and NYC show the highest figures of 15%.
Austria is at 1%.
The UK is either 2.7% or 4%.
This means that there is plenty of ammo for the virus on any release of lockdown.
Little John wrote:I cant see what all the noise and fury is about a test to see if someone currently has the virus. All that does is provide a momentary snapshot. A person could go on to contract the virus 5 minutes after the test. So, what value has such a test got in terms of managing this virus?
The only test that would have any value is an antibody test that shows if some has already had the virus and has immunity.
That won't be many.
The main German hotspot and NYC show the highest figures of 15%.
Austria is at 1%.
The UK is either 2.7% or 4%.
This means that there is plenty of ammo for the virus on any release of lockdown.
We have no idea how many people in the UK have had the virus. None.
Little John wrote:I cant see what all the noise and fury is about a test to see if someone currently has the virus. All that does is provide a momentary snapshot. A person could go on to contract the virus 5 minutes after the test. So, what value has such a test got in terms of managing this virus?
The only test that would have any value is an antibody test that shows if some has already had the virus and has immunity.
That won't be many.
The main German hotspot and NYC show the highest figures of 15%.
Austria is at 1%.
The UK is either 2.7% or 4%.
This means that there is plenty of ammo for the virus on any release of lockdown.
We have no idea how many people in the UK have had the virus. None.
Porton Down has high tech antibody testing technology.
A preliminary sampling confirms that very few people have been secretly infected and recovered.
(a) If there is a high number of people who have had the virus and recovered, we need an antibody test to know this.
(b) If there is low number of people who have had the illness and recovered, we still need an antibody test to know this and to also track the increase in immunity as the population progresses towards herd immunity.
Or, we should stop pretending we can manage it at the above level and either:
i) let it rip, take a severe but short term hit on our economies and send in the army to collect the corpses
ii) use pulsed release to exert some kind of crude control of numbers but exact far more serious and long lasting damage to our economies in the process.
Not that any of it matters, in the long run. In the long run, our industrial economies are f***ed anyway.
Little John wrote:I cant see what all the noise and fury is about a test to see if someone currently has the virus. All that does is provide a momentary snapshot. A person could go on to contract the virus 5 minutes after the test. So, what value has such a test got in terms of managing this virus?
The only test that would have any value is an antibody test that shows if some has already had the virus and has immunity.
Agree - the swab test (diagnostic test) also takes days to get the results and only seems useful if a positive test was to result in isolation and followed up with comprehensive contact tracing. Early in the outbreak, a chap where I work thought he had it - rang 111 - advised to go to the local hospital to get tested - weeks later, still not had any reply, so just assumes it was negative.... At the moment, most tests seem to be on those already hospitalised and in a 'patchy' manner with front line personnel ?
The results from the blood test (antibodies test) arrive in seconds and seem to tell us something more useful, especially for front line personnel.
Sure, unless they just antibody test anyone who asks for one.
Is it the government's fault that there isn't a test available in the whole wide world despite scientists working on it for several months that gives the right result consistently. An accurate test is essential before they roll out that testing program.
As for the test to see if people have the virus, it helps with the management of the work load for NHS staff. If they definitely know someone has the virus they know that they have to don PPE and be very careful in their handling of the patient; whether to isolate them or not. It can also mean that Staff don't have to self isolate if they have one symptom only so they can stay at work, lessening the load on fellow staff members.
Which confirms my view that most people are very stupid.
That is confirmed to an extent by the item below on the couple who have been thrown out by their landlord for non payment of rent. They should have told the landlord to get an eviction order to throw them out and they, and the landlord, would have found that there is a moratorium on evictions for non payment of rent and mortgages.
Which confirms my view that most people are very stupid.
Indeed they are.
It's possible we might get a mini bounce back where hope and 'positive thinking' will keep the wheels turning for a time (maybe 6 months or so). However, the longer term prognosis is diabolical. I suspect this will be one of the most traumatic and volatile decades in modern history.
We demand that reality be altered because we don't like it [� oilslick ]
Which confirms my view that most people are very stupid.
Indeed they are.
It's possible we might get a mini bounce back where hope and 'positive thinking' will keep the wheels turning for a time (maybe 6 months or so). However, the longer term prognosis is diabolical. I suspect this will be one of the most traumatic and volatile decades in modern history.
I think we will end up with a section of the population which will survive well, such as web based businesses, food delivery services etc whilst large chunks of society fall through the (mostly new) gaps.
